1. How poor farmers can participate in choosing technology development options Erik Millstone SPRU e.p.millstone@sussex.ac.uk STEPS http://steps-centre.org/

2. The STEPS Centre Core concern: Identifying and building pathways to ‘poverty reduction’ in combination with ‘sustainability’ Research themes: dynamics, governance, designs Normative benchmarks: Direction, Diversity and Distribution Domains: agriculture & food, health & disease, water & sanitation and energy An interdisciplinary approach: social and natural sciences, development studies and science and technology studies, assuming complexity, indeterminacy and non-linearity.

3. Food Insecurity in ASAL Areas Nevertheless, some 3.8 million people remain food insecure, particularly in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL), since only limited harvests have occurred Source: FEWS Net after ALRMP and KFSSG (Jan 2010)

4. We are using maize as a ‘window’ though which to analyse the dynamics of environmental, social and technical change in ‘innovation systems’ in Kenya

5. Since 2008, the BMGF has invested ~$100m in: Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa project DTMA Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA).

6. The BMGF’s Guidelines to Applicants and tells proposers to indicate: “Who are the target beneficiaries of your work and how does your approach specifically serve their documented needs? and ‘How have you consulted with your target beneficiaries and assessed their needs?”

7. Phase I Research – 2007-9 Literature review – Kenya’s agricultural history; environmental change; resilience; maize R&D/innovation Key informant interviews (science institutions, MoA, farmers’ organisations, seed companies, NGOs, donors, others) Field study –Sakai, Mbooni East District, Eastern Province – ‘low potential’ zone (participants from 5 villages); seed selector interviews; feedback meeting.

8. Field Site Sakai, Mbooni East – Low Potential

9. Phase I: Maize in ASAL Areas Main story  Diversification… Multiple pathways – in and out of maize? But where is it leading?  Towards more resilient livelihoods? Or are there constraints to pursuing these alternative pathways?

10. Phase II: Exploring Pathways in and out of Maize Phase 1 fieldwork identified a set of 9 core pathways in the Sakai Valley, generating from: 1.Reliance on internal/external inputs  including local vs. certified seed (OPVs, hybrids, etc.) and their sources (informal vs. formal channels) 2.Reliance on maize as key crop 3.Diversification out of maize  other key crops (‘orphan’ dryland staple crops, horticulture)

11. Typology of Pathways Low Maize High Maize Low- External Input High- External Input

12. Typology of Pathways Low Maize High Maize Low- External Input High- External Input 1 – Alternative dryland staples for subsistence 2 – Alternative dryland staples for market 3 – local improvement of local maize 5 – Assisted seed multiplication of maize 4 – Assisted seed multiplication of alternative dryland staples 6 – Individual high-value crop commercialization 7 – Group-based high-value crop commercialization 8 – Commercial delivery of new DT maize varieties 9 – Public delivery of new DT maize varieties See Briefing Paper 3 for details

13. Low Maize + Low External Input Pathway 1 – Alternative staples for subsistence Farmers diversify away from maize to alternative dryland staples These crops are increasingly grown alongside maize on the farm and are used mainly for household consumption. Local varieties are grown with minimal or no external inputs Pathway 2 – Alternative staples for market Farmers diversify away from maize to alternative dryland staples Maize is increasingly purchased for consumption with the proceeds from the sale of alternative crops. Local varieties are grown with minimal or no external inputs

14. High Maize + Low External Input Pathway 3 – Local improvement of local maize seed More farmers learn to select and multiply local varieties of maize seed for local use (planting on the local farm or sale/exchange with other farmers) Local varieties of maize are used with minimal or no external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc)

15. Low/High Maize + Low External Input + Assisted Multiplication Pathway 4 – Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Farmers are assisted in multiplying seeds of available improved varieties of alternative dryland staples These seeds are used for planting on the local farm or for sale/exchange with other farmers. Varieties are provided to farmers and assistance is given in seed multiplication, farming techniques, etc. Pathway 5 – Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Farmers are assisted in multiplying seeds of available improved, open- pollinated, drought-tolerant /drought-escaping maize. These seeds are used for planting on the local farm or are used for sale/exchange with other farmers. Varieties are provided to farmers and assistance is given in seed multiplication, farming techniques, setting up cereal banks, etc

16. Low Maize + High External Input Pathway 6 – Individual high-value crop commercialization Farmers diversify into high-value/high-risk horticultural crops such as tomatoes, onions and fruit trees Maize is gradually replaced on the farm by these high-value crops Maize is increasingly purchased for consumption with the proceeds from the sale of high-value crops Crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc) Crops require access to a water source and/or water storage techniques Pathway 7 – Group-based high-value crop commercialization Farmers form groups to diversify into high-value/high-risk horticultural crops Maize is gradually replaced on the farm by the high-value crops Maize is increasingly purchased for consumption with the proceeds from the sale of high-value crops Crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc) Crops require access to a water source and/or water storage techniques

17. High Maize + High External Input Pathway 8 – Commercial delivery of new maize varieties = DTMA & WEMA Farmers purchase new hybrid maize seed varieties, such as drought-tolerant hybrid maize from commercial dealers, such as private agro-dealers and stockists Maize is grown on the farm for local consumption and/or sale These crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc) Pathway 9 – Public delivery of new maize varieties Farmers purchase new hybrid maize seed varieties such as drought-tolerant hybrid maize from public delivery mechanisms. Maize is grown on the farm for local consumption and/or sale. These crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc.).

18. Those 9 pathways served as a starting point to open up discussions with farmers, scientists and policy makers on: 1.Range of pathways – analysing pathways in and out of maize; 2.Discussion about relevant criteria for choosing one pathway over another in such a way as to factor in the cross-scale dynamics and constraints; and 3.Critical examination of alternative visions of the future and institutional arrangements needed to support them

19. Phase III: Multicriteria Mapping (MCM): The Interview Process 2. Develop a set of criteria 5. Reflect on outcome 1. Discuss pathways 3. Score pathways under each criterion; optimistic & pessimistic scores to reflect uncertainty 4. Assign weight to each criterion 

20. What we did –23 interviews conducted in November 2009 –Some individual, Some in groups –Nairobi-based informants and Sakai Farmers Conducting the MCM interviews –Nine pathways evaluated discussing agricultural pathways ‘in and out of maize’ –147 different and unique criteria defined by informants to evaluate the pathways Analysing the MCM data –Identify groups of informants –Identify groups of criteria –Evaluate pathway performance rankings –Analyse the qualitative information provided in the assessments Multicriteria Mapping (MCM) Overview

21. Groups of informants 1.Sakai Farmers (11 interviews) a)Gender b)Income level 2.Nairobi-based Informants (12 interviews) a)Public sector officials b)Commercially oriented c)Science and technology institutes d)Biotechnology focus

22. Sets of criteria: Macro and Micro Issues Economic and Market Issues71 criteria – Resource costs23 criteria – Availability and access to resources30 criteria – Market aspects18 criteria Stress Tolerance Issues43 criteria – Water use17 criteria – Pests and disease resistance14 criteria – Suitability of crop to agro-ecological conditions 12 criteria Social, Political & Cultural Issues 33 criteria – Knowledge and skills14 criteria – Social and cultural9 criteria – Food security10 criteria

23. Evaluating pathway ‘performance rankings’ Performance rankings are literal ‘maps’ of pathway scores Averaged across groups of stakeholder & sets of criteria (issues) High end of range indicates average optimistic scores Low end of range indicates average pessimistic scores Length of range (or bar) indicates uncertainty & ambiguity expressed –Uncertainty is expressed by individuals in a stakeholder group –Ambiguity is the result of disagreement between stakeholders

24. Qualitative analysis of the pathway evaluations Used to identify groups of stakeholders with shared points of view Used to group criteria according to shared themes Clarifies the reasons for convergence and divergence in the pathways performance rankings

25. Multicriteria Mapping (MCM): The Interview Process

26. Performance rankings for low and high income Sakai farmers against a set of economic and market criteria show different perceptions of barriers based on income level

27. Performance rankings for different groups of stakeholders shows a surprising amount of optimism about alternative dryland staple crops, especially under a set of stress tolerance criteria

28. Pathways in maize: Living in parallel worlds? Performance rankings for different groups of Nairobi-based informants show assisted seed pathways are ‘consistent’ performers

29. Pathways in maize: Performance rankings for groups of Nairobi-based informants show a variety of high performing pathways, but rarely high maize options

30. Sakai farmer performance rankings show a preference for local maize, not new maize