1. Climate Change Seminar: science background, and transport trends Frank Kelly University of Cambridge 8 September 2006 References: www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~frank/climate/

2. Overview Science Background - IPCC Transport Trends Trains and planes

8. August 1992, GOES-7 satellite. Hurricane Andrew. (Courtesy of F. Hasler, et al, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA)

9. www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/carbon_cycle/intro_global.html

14. Transport trends

15. Reference: National Statistics Online http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Expodata/Spreadsheets/D7280.xls

16. Reference: 'Transport: Trends and Challenges', an Issues Paper for PIU Strategic Futures Seminar 13 November 2001, Figure 1 http://www.number-10.gov.uk/su/transport/background.pdf

17. Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition), Chapter 9, Table 9.5 http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/ dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3

18. Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition), Chapter 9, Table 9.1 http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/ dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3

19. Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition), Chapter 9, Table 9.1 http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/ dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3

20. Reference: DfT, Transport Trends (current edition); Trend 4.10b http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/ dft_index.hcst?n=9381&l=3

21. Reference: DfT, Transport Trends (current edition); Trend 8.1 a & b http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/ dft_index.hcst?n=9381&l=3

22. Reference: Quality of Life Counts: Indicators for a strategy for sustainable development for the United Kingdom, 2004 Update, Indicator D15 http://www.sustainable-development.gov.uk/sustainable/quality04/maind/pdf/qolc2004.pdf

23. Reference: Quality of Life Counts: Indicators for a strategy for sustainable development for the United Kingdom, 2004 Update, Indicator T4 http://www.sustainable-development.gov.uk/sustainable/quality04/maind/pdf/qolc2004.pdf

24. Reference: Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, “Surface Transport Costs and Charges: Great Britain 1998”, page 45 http://www.its.leeds.ac.uk/projects/STCC/downloads/SurfaceTransportCostsReport.pdf

25. Reference: DfT Road Pricing Feasibility Study, Annex B - Modelling Results and Analysis; Figure B1 http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_roads/documents/page/dft_roads_029735.pdf

26. Trains and planes

27. Aviation 96.4 Rail 11.9 Car 71.0 Coach 9.2 Lorry (per tonne) 116.9 London-Edinburgh kg of CO2 per passenger per journey Hansard - written answer - 8 July 2004 Class 91 electric high speed train 70% occupied, coach with 40 passengers, and 1.56 persons per car

28. London-Edinburgh (litres per seat) The comparison is between an Airbus A371, a VW Passat TDI and two hypothetical trains, running at 225 and 350 km/h respectively. Kemp R. J. Environmental impact of high-speed rail. Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Seminar on High Speed Rail Developments, 21 April 2004

29. Historical vehicle mass per passenger seat for UK and Japanese rolling stock UK vehicles Japanese vehicles

30. Contrails and Aircraft-Induced Cirrus Source: NOAA-12 AVHRR satellite data (Mannstein, 1997)

31. Distribution of fuel burned by civil aviation, 1992

32. Research proceeds… Source: TRADEOFF Project, Sausen et al, 2005

33. Discussion