1. THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES" GIS BASED MODELING THE POTENTIAL OF AGRICULTURAL BIOMASS SUITABLE FOR FUEL: A CASE STUDY IN KAUNAS COUNTY Gintautas Mozgeris*, Vanda Valerija Buivydaitė*, Daiva Tiškutė- Memgaudienė*, Farida Eugenija Dzenajavičienė**, Stanislovas Vrubliauskas** * Lithuanian University of Agriculture, ** Lithuanian Energy Institute

2. The key question to be answered how much resource is available or may be available how much resources can be utilized for competing product lines for energy production from biomass THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES"

3. Aim To introduce GIS based modeling of the potential of agricultural biomass suitable for fuel, carried out within the frames of BSR INTERREG IIIB Baltic Biomass Network project for Kaunas County. THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES"

4. Study area Kaunas county - 6 districts – Kaunas, Kedainiai, Kaisiadorys, Jonava, Prienai, Raseiniai, and 2 cities – Kaunas and Birstonas THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES" The soil fertility grades for all Lithuanian agricultural areas

5. Methods (1) For assessment the past trends in production of agricultural biomass, statistical data on yields, acreages and harvested amounts for Kaunas County was collected for the period 2000-2005 (6 years). THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES"

6. Methods (2) The technical parameters for modelling specific crops and solid fuel recovery methods used were as follows: THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES"

7. Methods (3) To model the yields of agricultural crops a standard soil database at a scale 1:10000 was modified to meet the requirement of the study. For the estimation of potential yield for all possible agricultural crops the soils were grouped according to the soil type category and within soil type on soil subtype, soil genera, soil phase, species and soil variety categories. Modeled potential yields were used to calculate the theoretical maximal energetic potential of any crop, possessing commercial and technical interest for energy production. THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES"

8. Results (1) None of agricultural crops maintained stable acreages during years 2000-2005 THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES" Common winter wheatWinter ryeWinter barley Sugar beetPotatoesRape 200520042003200220012000

9. Results (2) The dynamics of available energy potential for heating in MWh from three different crops in Kaunas County: a) straw potential; b) grain potential THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES" a)b)

10. Results (3) The dynamics of available energy potential in MWh from three different crops in Kaunas County for: a) bioethanol production, b) bio-diesel production THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES" a)b)

11. Results (4) Potential yields for main agricultural crops, cnt/ha: a) potato; b) sugar beet; … THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES" a)b)

12. Results (5) Potential yields for main agricultural crops, cnt/ha: …, c) wheat; d) barley; … THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES" c)d)

13. Results (6) Potential yields for main agricultural crops, cnt/ha: …, e) rye THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES" e)

14. Results (7) Maximal theoretical energetic values of main cereals in municipalities of Kaunas County were calculated THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES"

15. Conclusions (1) 1. There is no clear tendency for the acreage of some specific agricultural crop to increase or decrease significantly in municipalities of Kaunas County during the period 2000-2005. 2. The most attractive agricultural crop for bioenergy production in Kaunas County is wheat. The acreages of wheat in Kaunas County was increasing in the period of 2000-2005. 3. Energy potential for heating if all harvest of wheat is used for bioenergy, reaches 250000 MWh in 2005 for straw and 350000 MWh for grain. THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES"

16. Conclusions (2) 4. Sugar beet if used for bioethanol production could yield approximately 150000 MWh annually during the period 2000-2005. 5. The potential of rape for bio-diesel production tends to grow since the years 2002-2003 to reach 120000 MWh in 2005. 6. Maximal theoretic energetic values of main cereals and other agricultural crops can be modeled using GIS-based approaches. Relatively largest amounts of energy could be achieved using grain as fuel. THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES"