1. The Parties Fight Back

2. Presidential Party Nomination Systems “King Caucus”: 1800-1828 Convention System: 1832-1912 Mixed System: 1912-1968 Primary System: 1972-1982? Frontloaded primary system 1982-present

3. Hunt Commission, 1982 Superdelegates Frontloading

4. Date2004 PRIMARIES/caucuses1996 Jan wk2DC Jan wk3IA Jan wk4NHAK, HI Feb wk1AZ, DE, MO, SC, NMLA Feb wk2MI, WA, ME VA, TN, DCIA Feb wk3MI, IDNH Feb wk4DE, AZ, ND, SD Mar wk1CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

5. AP Delegate totals, March 17, 2004 (2,162 needed to win nomination) Kerry: 2333 Edwards: 530 Dean: 156KerryEdwardsDean Clark: 73Clark Sharpton: 26 Kucinich: 22 Lieberman: 2 Gephardt: 2SharptonKucinichLiebermanGephardt

6. The Invisible Primary Role for elites Role of money Role of the press Role for voters

7. Republican nomination 2000 Bush’s money –April 1999: $6 million –July 1999: $36 million –December 1999: $70 million Closest competitor: McCain –July 1999: $6 million –December 1999: $15 million

8. & Endorsements… Bush: –Michigan Gov. John Engler (R) –Oklahoma Gov. Frank A. Keating –Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R) –Conn. Gov. John G. Rowland (R –Mass. Gov. Argeo Paul Cellucci –Colo. Gov. Bill Owens (R) –Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) –Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R) –R.I. Gov. Lincoln C. Almond –La. Gov. M.J. "Mike" Foster (R) –Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge (R) –Kan. Gov. Bill Graves (R) –Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore II –N.Y. Gov. George E. Pataki –Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R) –Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer (R) –Wis. Gov. Tommy Thompson –Neb. Gov. Mike Johanns (R) –Nev. Gov. Kenny Guinn (R) –Ohio Gov. Robert A Taft II (R) –Ill. Gov. George H. Ryan (R) –Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) –Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) –Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) –Ariz. Gov. Jane Hull (R) –W.Va. Gov. Cecil H. Underwood –N.J. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman Alexander –Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) –Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) –Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) Forbes –NM Governor Gary Johnson Hatch –UT Gov. Mike Levitt Quayle –Miss. Gov. Fordice

9. Democratic nomination 2000 Bradley: OR: John Kitzhaber Gore N.C. Gov. James B. Hunt Jr. (D) AL Gov. Donald Siegelman KY. Gov. Paul Patton CA Gov. Gray Davis (D) WA Gov. Gary Locke (D) GA. Gov. Roy Barnes (D) HI Gov. Benjamin J. Cayetano MD. Gov. Parris N. Glendening (D) N.H. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen VT Gov. Howard Dean (D) S.C. Gov. James H. Hodges (D) MO. Gov. Mel Carnahan (D)

10. Where are we now? Invisible primary will start December ’06 Has it started already?

11. Frontrunner status? Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) –Current cash on hand: $17,101,626 Time (2/20, Tumulty) reports that big Republican donors "seem to be settling" on McCain…”

12. Possible contenders? John Edwards Howard Dean Hillary Clinton Rod Blagojevich Janet Napolitano Bill Richardson Tom Vilsack Evan Bayh Barack Obama Bill Frist Rudy Giuliani John McCain George Allen Mitt Romney Goerge Pataki Chuck Hagel

13. Rules of the 2008 race Frontloading PR vs. the Unit Rule (Democratic party) Campaign Finance

14. Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections –All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year –If you take the federal money, you abide by overall and state by state spending restrictions (about $44 million in 2004) Public financing ($74 million in 2004) for presidential campaigns (with limits on campaign spending)