1. The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections

2. The Public’s Interest Average # of Viewers (Millions) Source: Nielsen Media Research. GOP Data: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/business/media/republican-debates-are-a-hot-ticket-on-tv.html?pagewanted=all, American Idol 29.3 Dancing with the Stars 18.4 2 Broke Girls 19.2 2012 Florida GOP Debate 5.4 O’Reilly 3.6 Fox News 2.7 Rachel Maddow 0.4

3. The Republican Nomination Contest Iowa Caucus 6.5 % New Hampshire Primary 31.1 South Carolina Primary 17.6 Florida Primary 12.8 Nevada Caucus1.9 Minnesota Caucus*1.2 Colorado Caucus1.8 Missouri Primary7.4 Maine Caucus*.5

4. Normal People Uninformed, Confused, Ambivalent (Busy)  Not Extreme, Pragmatic, Not Ideological

5. Political Overreach Lyndon Johnson 1964-1966-1968 Jimmy Carter 1976-1980 Bill Clinton 1992-94 Newt Gingrich 1994-96 George W. Bush 2004-2006-2008 Barack Obama 2008-2010-?

6. George W. Bush “I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.” (2004) “On social security, I may have misread the electoral mandate …” (2010)

7. “… generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children … that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs for the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.” Barack Obama, June 4, 2008

8. Ray Fair Model GOODNEWS: Number of quarters of an administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at annual rate GOODNEWS VOTEVOTE VOTE: Republican share of two-party presidential vote in election The vote equation for 2012 is then: VOTE = C +.B*GROWTH -.B*INFLATION + B*GOODNEWS

13. Obama as Divider Average R approval Average D approval Gap Obama year 2 13 percent 83 percent 70% Obama Year 3 12 percent 84 percent 72% Democrats will vote Obama Republicans will vote Romney Independents will decide who wins presidency

15. Party Identification

18. Gallup Most Important Problem (June 2012) Economy (General)31 % Unemployment25 Government12 Federal Budget Deficit11 Healthcare 6 Lack of money 5 Ethical / Moral decline 4 Education 4

19. Is economy getting better

20. How is the economy:depends on who you ask

23. October 1,2012

24. "Mitt Romney was seen as better able to handle the economy, taxes, and the budget deficit among the debate audience, but it seems that issues were trumped, or at least blunted, by intangibles, including the expectations game," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

26. April 15

27. Pre –post debate shift

28. 2008: Obama 365, McCain 173 MA-12 MT-3 WA-11 OR-7 CA-54 NV-4 ID-4 UT-5 NM-5 AZ-8 WY-3 CO-8 NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-8 KS-6 TX-32 LA-9 AR-6 MO-11 IA-7 MN-10 IL-22 WI -11 IN-12 KY-8 TN-11 MS-7 AL-9 SC-8 GA-13 FL-25 NC-14 VA-13 WV-5 OH-21 PA-23 NY-33 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-8 NJ-15 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-18 NH-4 Obama McCain Strategy & the 2008 Electoral College

29. Changed Electorate 08-2012 Minority voters (80% Obama) UP 3% from 2008 White working class (41% Obama) DOWN from 2008 by 3% Examples: Nevada minority vote UP 9% from 08 While white working class is DOWN 5% Wisconsin : minorities UP 3% white working class DOWN 7%

30. MT OR-7 CA-55 NV ID-4 UT-5 NM AZ WY-3 CO NE-5 ND-3 OK-7 KS-6 TX-34 LA-9 AR-6 MO-11 IA MN-10 IL-21 WI IN TN-11 MS-6 AL-9 SC-8 GA-15 FL NC VA WV-5 OH PA NY-31 NH- Strategy & the 2012 Electoral College The battleground states for 2012 3 -4 3 5 6 4 -2 7 8 2 -5 -- 6 -2 -4 8

32. Congressional Elections

33. The end

36. Betting pools House

37. Betting pools Senate

38. The End Thank You

39. MA-12 MT-3 OR-7 CA-55 NV-6 ID-4 UT-5 NM-5 AZ-10 WY-3 CO-9 NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-7 KS-6 TX-38 LA-9 AR-6 MO-10 IA-6 MN-10 IL-21 WI -10 IN-11 KY-8 TN-11 MS-6 AL-9 SC-8 GA-15 FL-29 NC-15 VA-13 OH-18 PA-20 NY-31 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-17 NH-4 Best Hopes for Changes from 2008-2012 Wash 11 WV

40. MA-12 MT-3 OR-7 CA-55 NV-5 ID-4 UT-5 NM-5 AZ-10 WY-3 CO-9 NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-7 KS-6 TX-34 LA-9 AR-6 MO-11 IA-7 MN-10 IL-21 WI -10 IN-11 KY-8 TN-11 MS-6 AL-9 SC-8 GA-15 FL-27 NC-15 VA-13 OH-20 PA-21 NY-31 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-17 NH-4 Electoral College 2008 Wash 11 WV

42. I was just going over the primary rules and polls today, and I noticed >> that Romney has a huge advantage in the Winner Take All primaries >> (Arizona, California, Florida, New Jersey, Utah). They account for >> 375 delegates, and he leads (or has won) in almost all of these WTA >> states. If he stays up in the polls in those states (as he currently >> is) it will be very hard for Santorum to catch Romney in delegates, >> even if Santorum wins a larger share of the vote in the primaries. >> What are the chances that Santorum beats Romney in California? >> >> In this respect, the GOP primaries resemble the Gary Hart v. Walter >> Mondale contest.

43. WAR