Presentation on theme: " Note the specialized vocabulary! Difference between nominate and elect WHO nominates? Who decides how the nomination is going to take place? "— Presentation transcript:
Note the specialized vocabulary! Difference between nominate and elect WHO nominates? Who decides how the nomination is going to take place? Answer: Parties nominate candidates AT NATIONAL PARTY CONVENTIONS in August of presidential election years.
What is a National Party Convention? A meeting of delegates from each state Democratic or Republican party. *SPECIALIZED VOCABULARY. Representatives to a party convention are called DELEGATES. Conventions are: Big parties With lots of balloons and confetti On TV with speeches from candidates
The Democratic and Republican national parties establish some guidelines. Each state party decides how to satisfy those guidelines and to choose its delegates. (or WHETHER to satisfy those guidelines) Three basic processes.
Presidential Primary: A state-sponsored election to select delegates to national nominating convention Can be open to any voter (“open”) or only to voters registered in a party (“closed”) State party convention A closed meeting of elected state party committee- members, who select national delegates Caucus: A meeting where any affiliated voter can come and select individuals to serve as delegates in favor of a candidate. Neighborhood delegates county convention County delegates state convention State delegates National Party Convention Delegates
Note: Those voters who choose to register with a party and vote in a primary election are not average voters. They are more knowledgeable about politics than average voters They are more extreme in their opinions than average voters
DateState/Territory Tue., January 3, 2012Iowa Tue., January 10, 2012New Hampshire Sat., January 21, 2012South Carolina Tue., January 31, 2012Florida Sat., February 4, 2012Nevada February 4–11, 2012Maine Tue., February 7, 2012ColoradoColorado, Minnesota Tue., February 28, 2012ArizonaArizona, Michigan Sat., March 3, 2012WashingtonWashington, Tue., March 6, 2012AlaskaAlaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia March 6–10, 2012Wyoming Tue., March 10, 2012KansasKansas, Virgin Islands Tue., March 13, 2012AlabamaAlabama, American Samoa, Hawaii, Mississippi Sat., March 17, 2012Missouri Sun., March 18, 2012Puerto Rico Tue., March 20, 2012Illinois Sat., March 24, 2012Louisiana Tue., April 3, 2012MarylandMaryland, Texas, Washington DC, Wisconsin Tue., April 24, 2012ConnecticutConnecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island Tue., May 8, 2012IndianaIndiana, North Carolina, West Virginia Tue., May 15, 2012NebraskaNebraska, Oregon Tue., May 22, 2012ArkansasArkansas, Kentucky Tue., June 5, 2012CaliforniaCalifornia, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota Tue., June 26, 2012Utah To be announcedGuam To be announcedNorthern Mariana Islands
Early states get: More time from the candidates More promises More campaign spending in-state Their voters get to experience the campaign Iowa and New Hampshire go first…
IowaNew Hampshire National average Population 2,929,324 (30 th ) 1,235,786 (41 st ) 281,421,906 % White Median income % Farm employmt
IowaNew Hampshire National average Population % White 93.9%96%75.1% Median income % Farm employmt
IowaNew Hampshire National average Population % White Median income $39,469$49,467$41,994 % Farm employmt
IowaNew Hampshire National average Population % White Median income % Farm employmt 4.4%.9%1.9%
Early states (traditionally) have determined the outcome due to… Bandwagon effect (voters, donors, media) Media coverage!! Ability to raise more money if you do well early So in states with later primaries, the race is often OVER Does every state want those advantages? Heck, yes!
Date 20081996 Jan wk1 IA, WY Jan wk2 NH, Jan wk3 MI, NV Jan wk4 SC, FLAK, HI Feb wk1 ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN, MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK, KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MT LA Feb wk2 LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA, HI, WI IA Feb wk3 NH Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD Mar wk1 OH, RI, TX, VTCA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT Frontloading : the process by which states move their primaries earlier.
RETAIL POLITICSWHOLESALE POLITICS Iowa/NH Small, early states Face-to-face campaigning Shaking hands, kissing babies Making specific promises to local communities Cheap! Time-intensive Big states Too many voters to meet Big rallies (goal is to get free time on TV news) PAID TV ADS Expensive! Doesn’t take as much time (Get out the vote efforts still need organization)
Ultimately, by convincing primary voters/party activists That s/he is a good representative of the party That s/he can win the general election Convince them through: Campaigns (which cost money and time) Party elite endorsements Party elite endorsements Favorable media coverage ($$ again) (be the frontrunner!) Advantages of “winning” the “invisible primary”
More big states and more states hold nomination contests early in the year Candidates need more money and organization to compete Media knows this Many candidates weeded out before voters get a chance to see them
5 candidates have dropped out due to poor showings in early states Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, John Huntsman, Rick Perry Four major candidates remain Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Santorum
Rick Santorum “won” Iowa (no delegates officially) 13 delegates according to AP (Romney gets 12) Mitt Romney won New Hampshire (7 delegates) Ron Paul got 3 delegates Newt Gingrich won South Carolina 23 delegates Mitt Romney leads in Florida polls (votes on Jan. 31) Next states are Nevada and Maine (Feb. 4)