1. Internal Migration Flows and Residential Segregation in Northern Ireland: Relations, Motivations and Geographical Variations Gemma Catney PhD Research Student Centre for Spatial Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR) School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology (GAP) Queen’s University, Belfast 3rd International Population Geographies Conference, Liverpool 2006

2. Residential Segregation in Northern Ireland Religious residential segregation in NI – media and academic research Religious residential segregation in NI – media and academic research New academic research pointing towards residential segregation as either decreasing or staying the same New academic research pointing towards residential segregation as either decreasing or staying the same However, large geographic variations, with some increases in segregation in particular areas, and persistence in others However, large geographic variations, with some increases in segregation in particular areas, and persistence in others But why? But why?

3. Internal migration in Northern Ireland In-situ growth vs. migration In-situ growth vs. migration Simpson (2004), in Urban Studies Simpson (2004), in Urban Studies Migration – reinforcement, erosion, creation of residential segregation? Migration – reinforcement, erosion, creation of residential segregation? How far is community background (area composition, etc.) important in migration decision-making? How far is community background (area composition, etc.) important in migration decision-making? Under-explored and little understood Under-explored and little understood

4. Presentation outline Methodology Methodology Quantitative research Quantitative research Migration ratesMigration rates GWRGWR Qualitative research Qualitative research Area selectionArea selection Interviews and focus groupsInterviews and focus groups Cognitive mappingCognitive mapping 2 case study areas2 case study areas Summary and conclusions Summary and conclusions

5. Methodology QUANTITATIVE Migration rates Geographically weighted regression (GWR) SI modelling DATA SOURCES Census of pop. of NI (2001) Census grid square data (1971-2001) Residents (movers and non-movers) Key informants (community reps, property developers, etc.) Estate agents QUALITATIVE Semi- structured interviews Focus groups Cognitive Mapping Participant observation

6. Migration rates Inflow rate (per 1000 pop.)Outflow rate (per 1000 pop.)

7. Migration by community background Catholic inflow over total inflowCatholic outflow over total outflow

8. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) Catholic residential composition against Catholic inflow, as proportion of total inflow (12km bandwidth)

9. Summary Community background potentially very significant Community background potentially very significant Suggests reinforcement of residential segregation due to migration, in some places Suggests reinforcement of residential segregation due to migration, in some places But, a complex picture… But, a complex picture…

10. Qualitative research Semi-structured interviews with: Semi-structured interviews with: residents of case study areas (movers and non-movers) residents of case study areas (movers and non-movers) key informants – property developers, community representatives, etc. key informants – property developers, community representatives, etc. Focus groups (and cognitive mapping exercise) with: Focus groups (and cognitive mapping exercise) with: residents of case study areas (movers and non-movers) residents of case study areas (movers and non-movers) Also, participant observation with estate agencies Also, participant observation with estate agencies

11. Area selection Interviewing in 6 case study areas as a basis for understanding case-specific and general processes and trends Interviewing in 6 case study areas as a basis for understanding case-specific and general processes and trends Areas controlled for by: Areas controlled for by: Community background Community background Socioeconomic class (including tenure) Socioeconomic class (including tenure) Location (inner city, middle city, suburban and near- rural) Location (inner city, middle city, suburban and near- rural) A ‘representative’ sample according to demographic composition of area A ‘representative’ sample according to demographic composition of area

12. Case study areas A transect approach A transect approach South Belfast South Belfast Incorporates 6 areas with aforementioned characteristics, plus wider processes: Incorporates 6 areas with aforementioned characteristics, plus wider processes: Suburbanisation and counterurbanisation Suburbanisation and counterurbanisation Inner city residualisation Inner city residualisation Inner city gentrification Inner city gentrification Decentralisation of Protestant communities Decentralisation of Protestant communities Possible life-course characteristics Possible life-course characteristics

13. Transect: South Belfast

14. Outline: Interviews General context General context 2 case study areas: 2 case study areas: Middle city ‘mixed’ areaMiddle city ‘mixed’ area Inner city Protestant communityInner city Protestant community General / ‘universal’ trends General / ‘universal’ trends

15. Area 1: Ballynafeigh Middle city, ‘mixed’ community Middle city, ‘mixed’ community 1990s – mixed, with a slight Protestant majority 1990s – mixed, with a slight Protestant majority Present – mixed status under-threat, with an increasing Catholic majority and decreases in Protestants Present – mixed status under-threat, with an increasing Catholic majority and decreases in Protestants Predominantly middle class Predominantly middle class Becoming more affluent Becoming more affluent Development – apartment blocks (gentrifying) Development – apartment blocks (gentrifying)

16. Area 1: Ballynafeigh Recruitment: Community facilitator and ‘For Sale’ & ‘To Let’ signs Recruitment: Community facilitator and ‘For Sale’ & ‘To Let’ signs Recurring themes: Recurring themes: Reputation as a mixed community important – in-migration of couples in mixed marriagesReputation as a mixed community important – in-migration of couples in mixed marriages Graduates from the two universities (and some current students)Graduates from the two universities (and some current students) Starter homes for middle classesStarter homes for middle classes Familiarity – either student near by, grew up in area, personal contactsFamiliarity – either student near by, grew up in area, personal contacts Perception that it is becoming more Catholic due to recent in-migrationPerception that it is becoming more Catholic due to recent in-migration

17. Area 1: Ballynafeigh Some ‘cashing in’ on rising house prices and selling upSome ‘cashing in’ on rising house prices and selling up Out-migration (actual and hypothetical) tends to be to suburbs and rural areas – growing families wanting more quiet settings, a garden, less desire to be so close to the city centre, etc.Out-migration (actual and hypothetical) tends to be to suburbs and rural areas – growing families wanting more quiet settings, a garden, less desire to be so close to the city centre, etc. Area choice tends to be:Area choice tends to be: middle class middle class mixed (community background) mixed (community background) generally would not consider homogenous areas, but if would is always the ‘same side’ - safety generally would not consider homogenous areas, but if would is always the ‘same side’ - safety

18. Area 2: Donegall Pass Inner city Protestant (Loyalist) area Inner city Protestant (Loyalist) area Predominantly working class Predominantly working class ‘Typical’ of working class Protestant communities – under threat, with a loss of population ‘Typical’ of working class Protestant communities – under threat, with a loss of population Lack of suitable housing (social) Lack of suitable housing (social) Decline in services and amenities Decline in services and amenities Gentrified from all sides – feeling ‘squeezed’ Gentrified from all sides – feeling ‘squeezed’

19. Area 2: Donegall Pass Recruitment: Community facilitator, focus groups and other contacts Recruitment: Community facilitator, focus groups and other contacts Recurring themes: Recurring themes: For most, want to stay – lots of intra- area movementFor most, want to stay – lots of intra- area movement Substantial out-migration due to shortage of suitable housing (Housing Executive)Substantial out-migration due to shortage of suitable housing (Housing Executive) Some ‘cashing in’ on rising house prices and selling up (mostly bought through RTB)Some ‘cashing in’ on rising house prices and selling up (mostly bought through RTB)

20. Area 2: Donegall Pass But few choose to move if can stay – mostly movement for space – migration a huge event: “[Moving was] like a death in the family…it was really really hard…still is” (Protestant female, mid-40s)But few choose to move if can stay – mostly movement for space – migration a huge event: “[Moving was] like a death in the family…it was really really hard…still is” (Protestant female, mid-40s) Retention of networks and contactsRetention of networks and contacts Movement tends to be highly segregated – Protestants in, and movement out to Protestant areas – same with hypothetical area choiceMovement tends to be highly segregated – Protestants in, and movement out to Protestant areas – same with hypothetical area choice Reinforced by those selling homes – advice to viewersReinforced by those selling homes – advice to viewers Housing Executive area choice – both choice and offeredHousing Executive area choice – both choice and offered

21. General/ ‘universal’ trends Reasons why move: Dissatisfaction with current area/ property Dissatisfaction with current area/ property More space More space Garden Garden Closer to work Closer to work Closer to sick/ elderly relative Closer to sick/ elderly relative Health reasons Health reasons ‘Up and out’ ‘Up and out’ Intimidation Intimidation

22. General/ ‘universal’ trends Factors considered when do move/ have moved: Factors considered when do move/ have moved: Familiarity – family ties, friends, where grew up, work, etc. Familiarity – family ties, friends, where grew up, work, etc. Most search few areas and few properties – fairly fixed ideas about ‘acceptable’ or not Most search few areas and few properties – fairly fixed ideas about ‘acceptable’ or not Composition of the area (religion/ community background) a factor in most individuals’ decisions: Composition of the area (religion/ community background) a factor in most individuals’ decisions: Fear / safetyFear / safety SectarianismSectarianism

23. General/ ‘universal’ trends This may be overt: This may be overt: “Completely Catholic areas. Because, I mean, I wouldn’t get a chance to live in it” (Protestant female, 40, Protestant area) “Completely Catholic areas. Because, I mean, I wouldn’t get a chance to live in it” (Protestant female, 40, Protestant area) “I don’t think we would move into Loyalist areas…I mean, it stands to sense” (Catholic male, mid 20s, mixed area) “I don’t think we would move into Loyalist areas…I mean, it stands to sense” (Catholic male, mid 20s, mixed area) Or less direct Or less direct For those claiming religion was not an issue, still had firm views about areas to avoid – mainly highly segregated areas, both Nationalist and Loyalist, regardless of the religion of the interviewee For those claiming religion was not an issue, still had firm views about areas to avoid – mainly highly segregated areas, both Nationalist and Loyalist, regardless of the religion of the interviewee

24. General/ ‘universal’ trends Most tend to consider areas of same ‘type’ as those already in – e.g. residents of working class areas choose working class areas – familiarity, horizons, but also more conscious – the ‘sense of community’. Most tend to consider areas of same ‘type’ as those already in – e.g. residents of working class areas choose working class areas – familiarity, horizons, but also more conscious – the ‘sense of community’. However, for some, social aspirations come to the fore However, for some, social aspirations come to the fore Areas selected tended to be similar for individuals within each area Areas selected tended to be similar for individuals within each area Some forced/ designed segregation – role of institutions Some forced/ designed segregation – role of institutions

25. Mapping exercise ‘Fixed’ views ‘Fixed’ views reinforced in the reinforced in the mapping mapping exercise: exercise: Area perceptions Area perceptions and residential and residential desirability desirability

26. Summary Themes which are area/case-specific and general Themes which are area/case-specific and general Reasons why people move tend to relate to ‘usual’ factors, plus NI effect Reasons why people move tend to relate to ‘usual’ factors, plus NI effect Area selection (real and hypothetical): Area selection (real and hypothetical): FamiliarityFamiliarity Similar ‘types’, plus some aspirationsSimilar ‘types’, plus some aspirations Mixed, or ‘same side’Mixed, or ‘same side’ Potential reinforcement of segregation Potential reinforcement of segregation

27. Conclusions Mixture of methods has led to a rich tapestry Mixture of methods has led to a rich tapestry Quantitative analysis points to a relationship between migration and residential segregation, although the picture is complex Quantitative analysis points to a relationship between migration and residential segregation, although the picture is complex Qualitative research shows that community background has a strong influence, although other factors are important Qualitative research shows that community background has a strong influence, although other factors are important In addition to natural increase (in-situ growth), spatial reorganisation of the population is also having a major impact on changes in segregation In addition to natural increase (in-situ growth), spatial reorganisation of the population is also having a major impact on changes in segregation

28. Acknowledgements My supervisor, Dr Ian Shuttleworth, for his comments and advice My supervisor, Dr Ian Shuttleworth, for his comments and advice The participants in my interviews and focus groups The participants in my interviews and focus groups The community representatives, for their insight, and assistance in recruitment The community representatives, for their insight, and assistance in recruitment Department for Employment and Learning (DEL), for funding Department for Employment and Learning (DEL), for funding Contested Cities, Urban Universities (CU2) research team and funding body (European Programme Peace 2) Contested Cities, Urban Universities (CU2) research team and funding body (European Programme Peace 2)