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Sam Jones President All Season Financial Renewable Energy and Clean Tech Investing
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My Goal : To show you why clean tech is a new and permanent industry To show you why the opportunity to invest in this sector is real and timely To show you how and where to put your money
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Agenda The Case for Clean Technology Current Industry Trends vs Stocks Criteria for Investment Selection DIY Best Bets The New Power Fund Business Model
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The Case for Clean Tech Triple Bottom Line – Andy Savitz
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The Case for Clean Tech “Time to Wake Up: The Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever” -Jeremy Grantham April 2011 GMO Report
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The Case for Clean Tech Economic case is rooted in growing problem of resource scarcity and parabolic global population growth. Scarcity = rising prices, disruptive shortages, bad behavior (war) and a catalyst for change
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The Case for Clean Tech
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Developing countries are BIG and GROWING consumers of the world’s natural resources.
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The Case for Clean Tech
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Clean Tech (aka Renewable Energy) through substitution effects, efficiency and reduced demand has the potential to shift the supply line (back) to the right and reduce the price of energy.
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The Case for Clean Tech
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Environmentally - obvious A world based on hydrocarbons is messy, dirty, inefficient and expensive Clean and green will not save the planet but it will give the inhabitants a fighting chance
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The Case for Clean Tech Equity - Social Centralize energy and food is inherently authoritarian Distributed energy is inherently democratic as it also distributes cost control to the consumer Clean tech, clean energy is really about empowerment
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The Case for Clean Tech Clean Tech/Energy = A Sustainable Future
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Industry Trends Highlights in the last 12 months 17 GW of solar installed in the US in 2010 Energy Secretary Chu’s “Sunshot Initiative” designed to “drive down the cost of PV aggressively with aid from the white house” 24 states now have RPS policies with mandates of 76GW increase in power generated from renewables by 2025. Prop 23 was shot down in CA which means RPS guidelines are going to stick.
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Industry Trends More Highlights – last decade Solar CAGR = +39.8% ($2B to $71B) Wind CAGR = +31.2% ($4B to $60B) New Green building standards New Smart Grid communities
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Industry Trends
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Vs Stock Trends Clean Energy ETF (PBW) since inception 3/2005 to date. S&P 500 index
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Vs Stock Trends Wind ETF (PWND) Solar ETF (TAN) Global Clean Tech ETF (GEX)
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Renewable Energy stocks are somewhere around here
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Video on Light-weighting
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Vs Stock Trends Clean Tech Sectors Doing Well NOW Smart Grid Infrastructure Utilities that own and distribute clean energy and are ahead of RPS Energy Efficiency companies Efficient Transportation Technologies, Fuels
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Smart Grid – Demand/Response System
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Smart Grid Gadgets
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Stock Trends Televent GIT (TLVT) Smart Grid infrastructure +292% Powershares Clean Energy ETF (PBW)
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Vs Stock Trends ABB LTD (ABB) Smart Grid Player +330% Powershares Clean Energy ETF (PBW)
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Vs Stock Trends Seimans ADR (SI) Smart Grid +++ + 89% Powershares Clean Energy ETF (PBW)
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Vs Stock Trends American Superconductor –OUCH! Smart Grid Player – 74% since Feb 1 st (the day Jim Cramer recommended it!) Powershares Clean Energy ETF (PBW)
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Vs Stock Trends Avista (AVA) – regulated Utilities that are ahead of the curve and own their own power generation +72% Powershares Clean Energy ETF (PBW)
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Vs Stock Trends Companhia Energetica ADR (CIG) Brazilian Utility +444% (10.84% annual div) Powershares Clean Energy ETF (PBW)
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Vs Stock Trends Veeco Instruments (VECO) Energy Efficiency +248% Powershares Clean Energy ETF (PBW)
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Vs. Stock Trends Johnson Controls (JCI) Energy Efficiency +121% Powershares Clean Energy ETF (PBW)
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Vs. Stock Trends Westport Innovations (WPRT) CNG Engines
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Great companies on potential buys for New Power Fund CompanySymbolYTD %Sector EnerNoc, IncENOC-34%Smart Grid ComvergeCOMV-59%Smart Grid SolazymeSZYMIPO (+22%)Alt Air Fuels A123 SystemsAONE-48%Batteries OrmatORA-23%Geothermal Tata MotorsTTM-27%Automotive Tesla MotorsTSLA+3%Automotive
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3 Emerging Trends in Clean Technology Lighting- from CFLs to LEDs Integrated Solar, wind and natural gas systems Clean aviation fuels
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Criteria for Selection high level requirements A. Does it save money or improve net revenue within 3-5 years? B. Does it improve quality of life, products, services? C. Does it accomplish A. and B. without a heavy dependence on resources, tax rebates or burden on the environment? D. Competitive advantage is not as critical as proof of business model and growth
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Criteria for Selection technical considerations Is the price moving UP? Use 50 and 200 day moving averages
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DIY Best Practices A. Avoid stock picking unless you have a lot of experience B. Use Mutual Funds and ETFs C. Be a Trend Follower, own it when it’s going up! Buy Low, Sell High and monitor all holdings regularly D. Not more than 20% of total portfolio
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DIY Best Practices ETF Options TAN – Solar ETF FAN – Wind ETF PUW – Nat Gas and Clean Energy ETF GEX – International Clean Tech ETF Mutual Fund Favorites New Alternatives Fund (NALFX) Winslow Green Growth (WGGFX)
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$ Invested In strategy = Talking Green = Water Monster = Re-Tree 10% of total Fees donated To Education (Sustainability) Return on Investment Attract New Investors Visible presence promoting sustainability
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New Power Fund Recent Sponsorships Talking Green – YVSC Water Monster – YVSC Re-Tree – YVSC Denver Coop Preschool – Recycling Rocky Mountain Institute - National Solutions Council
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Takeaways Resource Scarcity is a permanent driver of the clean tech industry Longer term investors should consider accumulating renewable energy stocks at these levels. There are productive investments in Efficiency, Utilities, and smart grid NOW. Pay attention to trends in the industry and price trends in your investments
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Questions? Copy of this presentation? Interest in an investment group/club?
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