1. It may well turn out, once the returns are analyzed in detail, that the supreme court of Kerry's own Massachusetts helped the mobilization of these traditionalist and fundamentalist religious voters by its decision last year approving gay marriage. That decision spurred the submission of initiatives against gay marriage that were passed on Tuesday in all 11 states where they made the ballot -- including Ohio. David Broder, "An Old-Fashioned Win," The Washington Post"An Old-Fashioned Win,"

2. How would we know if gay marriage initiatives lost 2004 for Kerry?

3. 1. Ask People to make up stuff from public opinion polls “I definitely think moral values are a huge, huge important factor in Bush’s reelection,” said Laura Olson, who studies religion and politics at Clemson University. Rousing religious voters, eleven states had constitutional amendments banning gay marriage. All passed, most importantly, in Ohio. Exit polling showed one-fifth of U.S. voters viewed “moral issues” as the predominant factor when considering which candidate to support. While analysts like Olson believe the term is overly general, they said it served as a “good nexus” to capture a group of Americans who vote with traditional values in mind. Turnout among evangelicals increased only slightly compared to 2000. But with more than a fifth of the electorate describing themselves as evangelical, Olson said the group’s exceedingly high turnout rate dramatically favored Republicans. Source: “Bush Pushed from Right,” CBS News, Nov. 8, 2004, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/08/politics/main654383.shtml

4. 2. Compare states with and without gay marriage initiatives

5. Carry this comparison to the county level

6. Look just at the regression lines

8. “That’s the kind of counterintuitive result that puts the ‘T’ in “MIT” -Al Franken, The Truth (with Jokes)