Presentation on theme: "Www.pewforum.org Latinos and the 2012 Elections Boisi Center for Religion & American Public Life Boston College November 1, 2012 Luis Lugo, Director Pew."— Presentation transcript:
www.pewforum.org Latinos and the 2012 Elections Boisi Center for Religion & American Public Life Boston College November 1, 2012 Luis Lugo, Director Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life Washington, D.C.
Eligible Voters as a Share of Group’s Population: 2012 Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the March 2012 CPS 1 I
Hispanic Eligible Voter and Registered Voter Trends No. of Registered Voters (millions) Source: For 1988 through 2010, Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey November Supplements; for 2012, Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the August Current Population Survey. No. of Eligible Voters (millions) 2
Voter Turnout Rates in Presidential Elections White, non-Hispanics Black, non-Hispanics Latinos Asian, non-Hispanics Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from CPS November Supplements, various years % of U.S. citizens ages 18 and older who voted 3
Latinos, Religion and the Presidential Vote Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2008; 2004 Exit Poll data *In the 2004 exit poll there was some debate about the results of national exit poll data for Hispanics. Analyses of state-by-state exit poll data and CPS data suggest Bush’s share of the Hispanic vote was closer to 40% than 44%. Note: In the 2008 data the religion question was asked somewhat differently than the current approach (“What is your religion—Catholic, Evangelical Christian, Protestant, or something else?” with no born-again follow up). Those who responded “don’t know” or refused to respond are excluded. 4 KerryBushOtherObamaMcCainOther %%% Latinos53 44*374224 Catholic5839381163 Protestant4058162344 Evangelical2969260364 20042008 II
Party Affiliation among Latino Registered Voters Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, various years. % among registered voters 5 Democrats Republicans
Party Affiliation by Religion Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012. 6 Democrat/Lean Democrat Republican/Lean Republican Independent/ Other/DK/RefN Registered Voters%% U.S. Latinos70229=100903 Protestant563113=100291 Evangelical523613=100204 Catholic71217=100401 Unaffiliated81109=100150 Eligible Voters U.S. Latinos691813=1001,241 Protestant592615=100402 Evangelical523315=100270 Catholic701812=100523 Unaffiliated751114=100224
Latino Vote Preference by Religion Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012. % who would vote or lean toward voting for each candidate if election were held today 7
Latinos and Same-Sex Marriage Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012. General public figures from aggregated polls conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press in 2012. Whites are non-Hispanic only. FavorOpposeDKN %% All Latinos523413=1001,765 Catholic543115=100798 Protestant315811=100551 Evangelical25669=100389 Mainline463717=100156 Unaffiliated711811=100292 U.S. general public48449=1006,500 Catholic53379=1001391 White Catholic53388=100940 Protestant33589=1003,406 White evangelical19765=1001,351 White mainline523711=1001,146 Unaffiliated73207=1001,064 Do you favor or oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally? 8
Latino Views on Abortion Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2011 and Pew Research Center for People & the Press, October 2011. Should be legal in all/most cases Should be illegal in all/most cases % All Hispanics4351 Catholic4252 Protestant3265 Evangelical2870 Unaffiliated6232 General population5441 Catholic5044 Protestant4847 White evangelical3460 Unaffiliated7322 9
Source: National Survey of Latinos, General public comparison from October 2011 Survey by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. 10 SmallerBiggerDependsDK/RefN % %% All Hispanics19 7524=100 1,220 Catholic14 8025=100 792 Protestant25 71*4=100 223 Evangelical20 7613=100 161 Unaffiliated24 7123=100 140 U.S. GP48 4128=100 2,410 Catholic48 4516=100 532 White Catholic61 3116=100 376 Protestant52 3729=100 1,263 White Evangelical71 2026=100 470 White Mainline58 302 10=100 467 Black Prot17 722 10=100 179 Unaffiliated41 454 10=100 412 If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services?