2. Education Matters For individual life (Micro) For economic development (Macro) “Whereas at the micro case... it is established beyond any reasonable doubt that there are tangible and measurable returns to investment in education, such evidence is not as consistent and forthcoming in the macro literature “ (Psacharopoulos and Patrinos 2002) Findings are dependent on education indicators chosen (age-range). For health/mortality and fertility (cross-sectoral effects) Indirect effects of education on institutions and good governance (control by the educated)

3. Fertility Rates by Level of Education Region (1) No Education (2) Primary (3) Secondary and higher Difference (1) – (3) SS-Africa 6.45.53.72.7 North Africa 4.73.62.81.9 Asia (East +SE+South) 4.13.52.71.4 West Asia 6.44.63.52.9 Latin A.+ Caribbean 5.84.52.63.2

4. Measuring Formal Education Education Flows – Policy variable (Gross and Net Enrolment by Age, Repetition Rates) Education Stocks - Change very slowly due to great momentum –Mean years of schooling –Distribution by highest educational attainment –Functional literacy

5. Measuring Human Capital Stocks Directly from census data (Barro and Lee, 25+; Lutz and Goujon, 5-year age groups) Perpetual Inventory Method (Nehru, Swanson and Dubey 1993, Ahuja and Filmer 1995) Sums of enrolment over time to get time series of average number of years of schooling - adjust for mortality (Problem: differential mortality) - back projection and lots of other assumptions involved - all people aged 15-60 assumed to be in labor force - Does it refer to rectangular age distribution? Based on enrolment rates versus absolute numbers enrolled

7. Principles of Population Projection by age and sex Migration Mortality Migration Fertility Migration Males Population by Age and Sex 2000 2005 MalesFemales

8. Migration Mortality Migration Fertility Migration MalesFemalesMalesFemales Principles of Population Projection by age, sex, and education Population by Age, Sex, and Education 2000 2005

9. Data and Assumptions We need to know the current composition of the population by age, sex and education categories. We need to know how the birth rates differ for women with different levels of education. We need to know school enrollment at different levels and make alternative assumptions for the future. We need to make assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration by level of education.

10. Egypt 2000 Egypt 2030 Constant education scenario

11. Egypt 2000 Egypt 2030 Strong enrolment increase scenario