2. Aims Develop a methodology to study the impacts of low consequences/high probability events Apply this methodology to the implications of a 5-6 metre sea level rise on the Rhine delta, the Rhone delta, and the Thames estuary Assess the implications using risk assessment and optimal control theory

3. Work Package 1 Project management (1.1) Estimating the impacts of a 5-6 metre sea level rise (1.2) Scenario development framework (1.3) Risk assessment (1.4) Social values and representations (1.5) Optimal control (1.6) Synthesis (1.7)

4. Case Studies Development of draft scenario –What are the issues? 0 th draft –Who are the stakeholders and experts? Stakeholder selection & interviews –Interviews partly as preparation, partly as basis for 1 st draft; views expressed in private may differ from views expressed in public Workshop with stakeholders –Confront the various views with each other Scenario report (incl. Summary)

5. Time line Start: November 2002 March 2003: 0 th draft June 2003: Impact estimates, guidelines for workshops; 2 nd project meeting October 2003: Workshops with stakeholders March 2004: Scenario reports; 3 rd meeting September 2004: Dissemination workshop October 2004: Final report

6. Output We promised reports only, but perhaps we should strive for –A report for each case study, detailing impacts, methods and results –A paper for each case study –Perhaps a separate paper on impacts? –Perhaps a paper on stakeholder methodology? –Perhaps a paper on social representation? –A paper on risk assessment –A paper on optimal control –A summary paper as an introduction to either a special issue or an edited volume

7. Agenda - Thursday 12:00-13:00 Lunch 13:00-14:15 Welcome & introduction 14:15-15:00 Rhine 15:00-15:30 Break 15:30-16:15 Thames 16:15-17:00 Rhone 17:00-17:30 Discussion on case studies 19:30- Dinner in La Siciliana

8. Agenda - Friday 9:30-10:15 Impacts 10:15-11:00 Stakeholders 11:00-11:30 Break 11:30-12:00 Optimal control 12:00-13:00 Logistics etc –Consortium agreement –Toth & Nicholls and the case studies –Next meetings –Other issues 13:00- Lunch and adjourn