1. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Vulnerability of Poor Rural Households to Climate Variability and Change in the West African Sahel Anthony Nyong Geography Department, University of Jos, Nigeria START Visiting Fellow Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford, UK Abou Berthé Institute of Rural Economy, Mali Second International Conference on Climate Assessment (SICCIA), June 28 – July 2, 2004, Grainau, Germany.

2. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Acknowledgements This work is part of an AIACC supported project on Households and droughts in the West African Sahel: Effective Adaptation Measures. Research is executed by the University of Jos, Nigeria and The Institute of Rural Economy, Mali. Funding for AIACC (Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions) was provided by GEF, USAID, CIDA and USEPA. AIACC is jointly administered by START (Global SysTems for Analysis, Research and Training) and TWAS (Third World Academy of Science)

3. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali The Sahel Environment 1 A transition between the southern margin of the Sahara desert and the savanna regions to the south. A bio-climatic zone of mainly annual grasses with a few shrubs and trees, that receives a mean annual rainfall of between 150 and 600mm A steep gradient of decreasing rainfall from south to north, with an increase in inter-annual and spatial variability. A zone of cultural transition where the Islamic culture from the north mingles with the traditional cultures of the south. North-south stratification of social systems, northerly cultures tend towards pastoralism, southerly cultures largely practice sedentary agriculture.

4. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali A comparison of the 10-day rainfall distribution and the cumulative rainfall for 2002 with the long term average (1960-90) for various zones within the Sahel The Sahel Environment 2

5. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Research Questions/Objectives Who is vulnerable? What are the specific reasons for their vulnerability? Where are the vulnerable? How have they come to be vulnerable? What shapes the exposure to and ability of certain groups to rebound from vulnerability? We also wish to know the temporal and spatial aspects of vulnerability: Will vulnerability be long or short term or is vulnerability worse at certain times of the year? From the spatial perspective we wish to know the extent of vulnerable areas susceptible to droughts. The most vulnerable people may not be in the most vulnerable regions.

6. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Key Climatic Variables Risk Assessment Adaptation Strategies Selection of Study Sites Stakeholders Non Climatic Variables Vulnerability Model Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios Coping Threshold IPCC AIACC Capacity Building

7. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Project Coverage

8. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Methodology 1 The Focus –Current Vulnerability The Scale –Household The Framework –Sustainable Livelihood Systems Framework Stakeholder involvement and analysis –Variations in definition and perception of vulnerability

9. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Current Vulnerability Quantitative assessment of the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of various groups to past and present drought disasters will form a basis for, and contribute to understanding future Vulnerability & Adaptation to drought hazards in the Sahel.

10. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Household Analysis Project will mainly address the vulnerability of resource-poor households and groups, with a strong gender perspective. Continuing absence of class and gender focus in vulnerability to drought reinforces biases and presents a gap in giving a clearer picture of vulnerability, as well as in designing effective mitigation measures for them. Assets and entitlements are better analyzed at household level

11. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Why Sustainable Livelihood?  Adopting a sustainable livelihoods perspective on drought vulnerability results in a fundamental shift in focus away from the resource itself to people, the impact of drought on their livelihood strategies, and resource conditions.  Will ensure that projects tackling drought mitigation and adaptation become problem-led rather than ‘discipline-led’.  Will lead to a greater understanding of the multiple dimensions of drought vulnerability. Vulnerability is explicitly a social phenomenon related to a human value system.

12. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Stakeholder Analysis Stakeholders are those who would be increasingly affected by the foreseen impacts, as well as those who have a role in influencing adaptation and policy. Understanding role of stakeholders in the decision-making processes to cope with and adapt during climatic events is fundamental to characterizing current and possible future vulnerability. Stakeholder analysis will assist the implementation of adaptation policies and the formation of an “adaptation community”, that will provide the momentum to carry the process forward (APF, 2003).

13. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Participatory Rural Appraisal to: –Identify major livelihood systems Methodology 2 Farming FishingNon-Agric Systems Pastoralism

14. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Selection of Study Communities ZonesRainfall (mm) No of Villages No. of households Sahelo-Saharan< 400448 Sahelian400 – 600448 Sudano-Sahelian600 – 1000336 Sudano-Guinean> 1000336 Delta400-600224 Total16192 Mali Nigeria 27 communities selected, 860 households interviewed, Communities selected based on livelihood systems, size of villages and willingness of the women to participate in the project.

15. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Identification Vulnerability Indicators Identification of risks exposed to: –Different groups in the Sahel are differentially at risk from different threats to their livelihood. Climate change is one of those threats. Such risks include: Insecurity/violence, ill- health/death of both humans and animals, rising cost of living, insufficient food for the household, crop failure –Vulnerability varies within and between households and across communities. People’s perceptions of risk may be based not only on the objective risks that they face, such as variable rainfall, but also on their subjective assessment of risk. –Development of indicators of vulnerability - mix of both quantitative and subjective indicators

16. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Table 1: Indices and Weights for Preliminary Vulnerability Assessment for Northern Nigeria IndexValueMeasured/Calculated asRangeAverage 1Acreage under cultivation1Hectares/consumer units0.1 -2.8 0.6 2Dependency ratio1Labour units/consumer units (inverted)0.3 – 0.80.5 3Livestock ownership1Tropical Livestock Units/consumer units0.0 – 8.23.7 4Gender of Household Head1Value given to sex of household head1.0 – 2.01.8 5Livelihood diversification1Weighted number of non-agricultural income generating activities/consumer units 0.0 - 2.40.7 6Annual cash income1In 1000 Naira/consumer units2.5 – 9.74.2 7Drought Preparedness1Value given to use of drought resistant crops and livestock and receives drought related information and advise 0.0 – 2.01.1 8Educational background of the household head 0.5Value given to highest school level attained by the head of the household 0.0 -4.01.8 9Land tenure situation0.5Value given to land tenure situation1.0 – 3.02.5 10Type of house0.5Value given to type of house lived in1.0 -3.01.80 11Self-sufficiency in food production 0.5Number of years surplus foodstuffs were sold minus number of years foodstuffs were bought in the past 10 years 0.0 -20.011.2 12Family and Social Networks0.5Value given to strength of family and social networks. 1.0 – 4.02.25 13Quality of household0.5Number of able persons/ number of disabled and or sick persons in the household (inverted) 1.5 – 12.07.6 Overall Vulnerability10Sum of (index scores * index value)235.1 to 833.9472.1

17. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Vulnerability Ranking Distribution of Households According to Levels of Vulnerability Vulnerability Group Livestock (Bunza) Crop farming (Garin Adamu) Fishing (Tikuikui) Very Vulnerable8124 Vulnerable171016 Not Vulnerable5810 Total30 Methodology for classification –Indicators weights <350 Highly Vulnerable 351 – 700 Vulnerable >700 Not Vulnerable

18. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Characteristics Highly Vulnerable VulnerableNot Vulnerable No (%) Household Size < 3 3 – 7 > 12 Total 8 (33.3) 5( 20.8) 11 (45.9) 24 (100.0) 11 (25.6) 15 (34.9) 17 (39.5) 43 (100.0) 5 (21.7) 8 (34.8) 10 (43.5) 23 (100.0) Dependency Ratio0.60.50.4 Sex of HH Head1.81.9 Mean Age of HH Head615554 Mean Income/Consumer UnitN 3100.00N4800.00N6300.00 Education of HH Head0.81.42.2 Livelihood Diversification0.81.53.9 Quality of Household5.46.88.2 Family/ Social Network1.81.94.6 Food Sufficiency Past Decade7915 Table 3: Selected Household Indicators of Adaptive Capacity by Vulnerability Groups

19. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Characteristics CoefficientS.Ep>│z│odds Household Size0.0470.0060.0631.05 Dependency Ratio-1.0360.0160.0002.82 Sex of HH Head0.0180.0500.0711.02 Mean Age of HH Head-0.7240.1190.0412.06 Mean HH Income/consumer unit-1.0030.0220.0002.73 Education of HH Head-0.0160.0110.0641.02 Livelihood Diversification-0.7720.0290.0002.16 Quality of Household-0.1540.0100.0321.17 Food sufficiency-0.3260.0310.0481.39 Family/ Social Network-0.1030.2080.0461.11 Constant-1.6630.0980.022 _cut1-0.3900.012 _cut2-0.5030.015 Sample size90 Log Likelihood statistic-16441 Table 4: Multivariate Results of Household Adaptive Capacity

20. Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali What Next? More Data Analyses to answer the Research Questions Development of a GIS for spatial analysis of drought vulnerability Concerns? Aggregating household level indicators to community/regional indices Development of a Dynamic Vulnerability Model