1. Climate Change Mitigation What it means for Business Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences Waveney Environment Network 27th January 2005

2. The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Issues The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project Some examples of good practice What it means for business The future Climate Change Mitigation

3. Future Global Warming Rates

4. I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems Reasons for Concern I II III IV V Range of predicted temperatures Risks to Many Risks to Some Large Increase Increase Negative for most Regions Negative for some Regions Some positive/ some negative Most people adversely affected Net Negative for all markets most Very Low Risk Higher Risk Current temperature Historic Average Average 1950 - 1970 oCoC IIRisks from Extreme Climatic Events IIIDistribution of Impacts IVAggregate Impacts VRisks from Future Large Scale Discontinuities

5. Assumptions: 20% renewable generation by 2020, Demand stabilizes at 420 TWH in 7 years Electricity Scenarios for UK and implications on CO 2 emissions. Gas Scenario Nuclear Scenario Coal Scenario Variable Scenario: 40% Gas; 20% Nuclear 60% reduction 20% reduction 20 year growth in demand 1.8-2% per annum 2.2% in 2003

6. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Difficult Choices Ahead

7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

8. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol?

9. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

10. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 911.562 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

11. Solar Thermal Performance - detached house in Norwich From 27th Jan - 15th Sept 2004 average gain 3.16 kWh per day Will save about 0.25 tonnes per year

12. House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

13. The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Issues The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project Some examples of good practice What it means for business The future Climate Change Mitigation

14. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

15. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

16. Our Choices: They are difficult A diverse supply of renewables across the country will provide security [it is rare for the wind not to be blowing anywhere except on sunny days when solar energy output is at a peak] A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark. Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW enough to supply over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines. Renewable generation is less prone to major interruption BUT: Aren’t Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply

17. The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Issues The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project Some examples of good practice What it means for business The future Climate Change Mitigation

18. Government Response Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO 2 emissions by 2050 Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003

19. UK Renewables Obligation > 10.4% by 2010 in 2003 - 2004 -----4.3%, but in practice barely 3% Announced on 11th March 2004 - 3.139 p per kWh Revision of Building Regulations brought forward EU Biofuels Directive for Transport 2005 (2%) >>> 5.75% in 2010 Carbon Emission Trading - started on 1st January 2005

21. The CRed ambition To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse community to debate, plan and execute a programme to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60% by 2025 Can a local community take on the responsibility for starting to confront the challenge of climate change and make a difference? Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere else? Can we encourage politicians/officials to be bolder on our behalf? “exemplar for the world”

22. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 4 million each year for Norfolk On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year.

23. Some facts: A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 25 kg CO 2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~£30 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO 2 (5% of one balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles

24. The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Issues The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project Some examples of good practice What it means for business The future Climate Change Mitigation

25. Main Energy Conservation Projects at UEA Constable Terrace/ Nelson Court Student Residences Elizabeth Fry Building Combined Heat and Power School of Medicine ZICER Building The Future - from May 2005 Absorption Chilling

26. The Elizabeth Fry Building

27. Termodeck Construction Air is circulated through whole fabric of building Heated using a normal domestic heating boiler (24 kW) No heat supply needed at temperatures as cool as 9 o C Triple glazing with Low Emissivity Glass ~ quadruple glazing 180 mm insulated cavity 300 mm roof insulation 100 mm floor insulation Air – Pressure Test at 50 Pa – not to exceed 1.0 ach Actual performance 0.97 ach Has deteriorated slightly since 1996 Uses regenerative Heat Exchangers 85% with heat recovery Exceeds proposed 2005 Regulations Capital Cost – just 5% more

28. The performance of the building has improved with time Energy Consumption in Elizabeth Fry Heating provided by domestic sized boilers. Energy requirement 20% of good practice for Academic Buildings.

29. 44 96 ECON 19 Good Practice Type 3 Office Elizabeth Fry 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 kg/m 2 /annum gas electricity carbon dioxide emissions thermal comfort +28% air quality +36% lighting +25% noise +26% Elizabeth Fry User Satisfaction An energy efficient building reduces carbon dioxide AND is a better building to work in. Elizabeth Fry: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and User Satisfaction

30. Elizabeth Fry performance has improved over years. ZICER will be better and less than 70% of emissions of mid 90’s best practice building Photovoltaic cells will generate ~ 30 kW and save 20 tonnes CO 2 per annum. Projected Performance of ZICER

31. UEA Combined Heat and Power Scheme

32. UEA CHP Scheme Until 1999 most heat for space heating was supplied by large boilers Primary main temperature ~ 110 – 120 o C All electricity imported Energy bill was in excess of £1 million per year Three 1 MWe generators are now installed Provide the majority of the electricity for the campus Export electricity at periods of low demand Waste heat is used a primary heat source Supplemented by existing boilers CHP has reduced that figure by £400 000 per year

33. UEA CHP Scheme Performance Before Installation: Energy and Carbon Dioxide After Installation: Saving in CO 2 : 4824 tonnes or 31.9% Energy costs cut to £600 000 from £1 000 000

34. CHP Review 839015101.79.26537.68555.0tonnes 0.2770.1860.43kg/kWh 331503514815819895328kWh1997/98 balloons totaloilgaselectricity 571010278.0255.55256.92698.90.02486.7-420.1 tonnes 0.2770.186 0.43-0.43 kg/ kWh 922563282630771451007815630431578310097700020436531kWh1999/00 balloons totaloilCHPboilers Gener- ationimportexportelectricity Saving in CO 2 emissions as a result of CHP - 4824 tonnes CO 2 or 31.9% Equivalent to 2680 hot air balloons. [Note: UEA expanded during time and consumption increased so CO 2 savings are really higher than this].

35. Condenser Evaporator Throttle Valve Heat rejected Heat extracted for cooling High Temperature High Pressure Low Temperature Low Pressure Absorber Desorber Heat Exchanger Heat from external source W ~ 0 Absorption Heat Pump The Win - Win opportunity More electricity can be generated in summer Less electricity demand in summer > more income for exports Compressor W in

36. Duke Street Renovation Norwich led the way in 1940’s First ever Heat Pump Opportunity now exists to reinstate a heat pump in the same building that John Sumner did his pioneering work. Heat pump will reduce carbon emissions by 60% and significantly reduces fuel bill. Provides a cost effective solution - cheaper overall conversion and cheaper to run

37. Duke Street Refurbishment - Heat Losses Tackling heat recovery from ventilation is important

38. The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Issues The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project Some examples of good practice What can businesses do? The future Climate Change Mitigation

39. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES for Business - Energy Management.  Technical  Education  Energy Management Technical Measures will have limited impact on energy consumption if staff are not educated to use energy wisely. Energy Management is a key aspect in energy conservation A good Energy Manager will:-  Assess Energy Demand - record keeping  Analyse Energy Demand - examine trends relating to physical factors  Advise on technical and other methods to promote energy conservation  Advertise and publicise ways to save energy  Account for energy consumed heating season No heating season Record Keeping and Analysis Early warning of poor performance Can identify strategies to improve performance A Low Cost Option Outside Temperature Energy Consumption

40. After several years of falling prices, energy prices are rising Electricity Government trumpets success of NETA Schemes to save energy are becoming increasingly attractive

41. Recent Trends in Wholesale Prices Electricity Gas Retail prices have followed trend in Wholesale prices Gas: 20% increase in last year: Electricity: 14% increase

42. Businesses are already affected by Climatic Change Levy 0.43p per kWh (electricity) Moderate sized businesses – e.g. UEA are now being affected by the new EU Emissions Trading System First Phase (2005 – 2007) Came into force on 1st January 2005. Could adversely affect UEA by between £20,000 and £80,000 per annum Phase 2 starts in 2008 and is likely to affect further businesses Electricity Prices in UK will rise further as this sector has to take brunt of reduction in emissions. –Gas prices are rising –North Sea Output of gas fell by 8% last year –A switch back to coal will see an increase in the number of Carbon Credits which need to be purchased and would push up trading price Other Issues

43. G-Wiz Electric Car Can carry 2 ADULTS AND 2 small CHILDREN Range 40 miles – will improve to around 50+ miles in a year or so Maximum Speed 40 mph Running cost ~ 1.5p per mile ~ 500+ miles per gallon equivalent Around 30% of carbon emissions NO ROAD TAX: In London: NO CONGESTION CHARGE: In many car parks – free parking and free charging!

44. Energy Saving: The Carbon Trust www.thecarbontrust.co.uk

45. Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy Examples of Good Practice Low Carbon Applications already exist It makes sense to take action now Need to act now otherwise we might indeed have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

46. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm