1. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The PC+ Era Infinite processing, memory, and bandwidth @ zero cost. Gordon Bell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Corporation

2. The only thing that matters at the end of the day is, it’s a great building.

3. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The Highly Probable Future c2025 83 items from J. Coates, Futurist, Vol. 84, 1994 8.4 B, english speaking, personally tagged & identified, prosthetic assisted and/or mutant, tense people who have access & control of their medical records Everything will be smart, responsive to environment. – Sensing of everything… challenge for science & engineering! – Fast broadband network – Smart appliances & AI – Tele-all: shop, vote, meet, work, etc. – Robots do everything, but there may be conflict with labor… A “managed”, physical and man-made world – Reliable weather reports – “Many natural disasters e.g. floods, earthquakes, will be mitigated, controlled or prevented” Nobel prize to “economist” for “value of information”

4. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+

5. PC At An Inflection Point PCs Non-PC devices and Internet

6. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The Dawn Of The PC-Plus Era, Not The Post-PC Era… Consumer PCs TV/AV MobileCompanions Household Management Communications Automation & Security

7. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg Using PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels Gordon Bell Jim Gemmell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Research Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation

8. Home CATV Analog/digital cable distribution PC broadcasts are mixed into home CATV in analog and/or MPEG digital Ethernet Home network Video capture “milliBill” Basic ideas: 1. PC records or plays thru video cable channels. 2. PC “broadcasts” art images, webcams, presentations, videos, DVDs, etc. 3. Ethernet not cable? Settop box Another big bang? Internet to TV and audio: The Net, PC meet the TV

9. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ PC will prevail for the next decade as the dominant platform… to HPCC community its COTS! Moore’s Law to reduce price Lack of last mile bandwidth to move pictures, data, and interact favors home mainframes aka PCs Very large disks (1TB by 2005) to “store everything” personal Screens to enhance use Home entertainment server… Office and portable requirements Etc.

10. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ My betting record: No losses … so far (>5year old bets) TMC & MPP will not be dominant by 1995 Video On Demand will not exist by 1995 AT&T acquisition of NCR will not be successful 10K desktop-desktop will not exist by 1/2001 1 B internet users by 1/2001 or 1/2002 Cars won’t drive themselves by 2005 PCs continue with 2 digit growth through 2002

11. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Outline Future predictions… 2020 and the world Caveat: How far out can we see? WWW just >5 years old Background: SNAP at RCI 3/95 conference, Albuquerque My own history of supercomputing… data/compute The hardware scene in 5-10 years? – Processing and Moore’s Law – Networking – Disks Challenges: – OSS – Communities with dbases & hs nets – ASP: workbenches – If simulation is third mode after theory, expt, what is 4 th ? connection with the experimental world for data; then control… biologist workbench where work is being done.

12. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ SNAP … as given at RCI, 3/95 S calable N etwork A nd P latforms A View of Computing in 2000+ (I missed the impact of WWW) Gordon Bell Jim Gray

13. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ How Will Future Computers Be Built? Thesis: SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms upsize from desktop to world-scale computer based on a few standard components similar to NEC’s Computers & Communications 1983 vision Because: Moore’s law: exponential progress Standardization & Commoditization Stratification and competition When: Sooner than you think! massive standardization gives massive use economic forces are enormous

14. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Performance versus time for various microprocessors

15. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Volume drives simple, cost to standard platforms performanceperformance Stand-alone Desk tops PCs

16. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Section: The economics of operating systems and databases (or why NT has the advantage over proprietary or vanity chips and UNIX dialects )

17. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The UNIX Trap: creating the myth of “open systems” “Standard” now means different! VendorIX platforms have created the “downsizing” market that provides an apparent, order of magnitude cost reduction Hardware platform vendors lock-in users with servers of proprietary UNIX dialects and unique chips to maintain margins for chip and UNIX development Users hostage with client-server, database, and apps An implicit or unconscious cartel forms that maintains the industry status quo

18. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The UNIX Cartel and Tax: It’s not competitive and it introduces higher downstream costs ­10,000 programmers @75 companies maintain dialects R & D costs ­ $1.4 - $2 billion Implied selling price ­ $10 - 14 billion for $1.4 billion, or a sales tax of 1 million UNIX units of $10,000 Cost could be reduced to ­ $400 million for ONE UNIX, sales price for 1 million units would be $2,400 - 4,000 NT sales price is $650; OS2 needs to sell for $1.2b/6m Furthermore: The downstream effects on database vendors is 40% R&D efficiency causing an implied database tax of 2.5x the sales price! The downstream effects on apps vendors is similar xx

19. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Section: SNAP Architecture----------

20. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Computing SNAP Environment circa ­ 2000 Local & global data comm world ATM† & Local Area Networks for: terminal, PC, workstation, & servers Centralized & departmental uni- & mP servers (UNIX & NT) Legacy mainframes & minicomputers servers & terms Wide-area global ATM network Legacy mainframe & minicomputer servers & terminals Centralized & departmental scalable uni- & mP servers* (NT & UNIX) NT, Windows & UNIX person servers Platforms: X86 PowerPC... etc. Universal high speed data service using ATM or ?? NT, Windows & UNIX person servers* * multicomputers built from multiple simple, servers NFS, database, compute, print, & communication servers † also10 - 100 mb/s pt-to-pt Ethernet TC=TV+PC home... (CATV or ATM or satellite) ??? Mobile Nets Portables A space, time (bandwidth), & generation scalable environment

21. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Computing SNAP built entirely from PCs Local & global data comm world ATM† & Local Area Networks for: terminal, PC, workstation, & servers Centralized & departmental uni- & mP servers (UNIX & NT) Legacy mainframes & minicomputers servers & terms Wide-area global ATM network Legacy mainframe & minicomputer servers & terminals Centralized & departmental servers buit from PCs scalable computers built from PCs TC=TV+PC home... (CATV or ATM or satellite) ??? Portables A space, time (bandwidth), & generation scalable environment Person servers (PCs) Person servers (PCs) Mobile Nets

22. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ GB with NT, Compaq, & HP cluster

23. In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers – processing 10-100x – 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper – Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays – low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use adequate networking? PCs now operate at 1 Gbps – ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs – Competitive wireless networking One chip, networked platforms e.g. light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc. managed by PCs! Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market share watch, pocket, body implant, home Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.

24. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ High Performance Computing A 60+ year view

25. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+

26. Star Bridge

27. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Linux super howls

28. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Dead Supercomputer Society

29. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Dead Supercomputer Society ACRI Alliant American Supercomputer Ametek Applied Dynamics Astronautics BBN CDC Convex Cray Computer Cray Research Culler-Harris Culler Scientific Cydrome Dana/Ardent/Stellar/Stardent Denelcor Elexsi ETA Systems Evans and Sutherland Computer Floating Point Systems Galaxy YH-1 Goodyear Aerospace MPP Gould NPL Guiltech Intel Scientific Computers International Parallel Machines Kendall Square Research Key Computer Laboratories MasPar Meiko Multiflow Myrias Numerix Prisma Tera Thinking Machines Saxpy Scientific Computer Systems (SCS) Soviet Supercomputers Supertek Supercomputer Systems Suprenum Vitesse Electronics

30. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Steve Squires & Cray

31. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t) Petaflops study target NEC XMP NCube CM2 *IBM

32. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Top 10 tpc-c

33. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ High Performance Computing Supers we knew are Japanese… scalability & COTS in… but you have to roll your own else pay the Unix & proprietary taxes Beowulf is $14K/TB ( 6 x 4 x 40 GB) IBM 4000R 1 rack: 2x42 500Mhz processors, 84 GB, 84 disks (3TB @36GB/disk) $420K … still cheaper than the “big buys” $10-20K/node for special purpose vs $2K for a MAC EMC, IBM at $1 million/TB; vs $14K

34. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ High performance architectures timeline 1950.1960.1970.1980.1990.2000 VtubesTrans.MSI(mini) Micro RISCnMicr “IBM PC” Processoroverlap, lookahead “killer micros” Cray era66007600Cray1X Y C T FuncPipeVector-----SMP----------------> SMPmainframes--->“multis”-----------> DSM??Mmax.KSR SGI----> ClustersTandmVAXIBM UNIX-> MPP if n>1000 Ncube IntelIBM-> Local NOW and Global Networks n>10,000 Grid

35. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ High performance architectures timeline 1950.1960.1970.1980.1990.2000 VtubesTrans.MSI(mini) Micro RISCnMicr “IBM PC” Sequential programming---->------------------------------ (single execution stream e.g. Fortran) Processoroverlap, lookahead “killer micros” Cray era66007600Cray1X Y C T FuncPipeVector-----SMP----------------> SMPmainframes--->“multis”-----------> DSM??Mmax.KSR DASHSGI---> <SIMD Vector--//--------------- Parallelization--- -----------------THE NEW BEGINNING----------------------- Parallel programs aka Cluster Computing <--------------- multicomputers <--MPP era------ ClustersTandmVAXIBM UNIX-> MPP if n>1000 Ncube IntelIBM-> Local NOW Beowlf and Global Networks n>10,000 Grid

36. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ High performance architecture/program timeline 1950.1960.1970.1980.1990.2000 VtubesTrans.MSI(mini) Micro RISCnMicr Sequential programming---->------------------------------ (single execution stream) <SIMD Vector--//--------------- Parallelization--- Parallel programs aka Cluster Computing <--------------- multicomputers <--MPP era------ ultracomputers 10X in size & price!10x MPP “in situ” resources 100x in //sm NOWVLSCC geographically dispersedGrid

37. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Computer types Netwrked Supers… GRID Legion Condor Beowulf NT clusters VPPuni T3E SP2 (mP) NOW NEC mP SGI DSM clusters & SGI DSM NEC super Cray X…T (all mPv) Mainframes Multis WSs PCs -------- Connectivity-------- WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM micros vector Clusters

38. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Technical computer types: Pick of: 4 nodes, 2-3 interconnects Fujitsu Hitachi IBM ?PC? SGI cluster Beow/NT NEC SGI DSM T3 HP? NEC super Cray ??? Fujitsu Hitachi HP IBM Intel SUN plain old PCs SAN DSM SMP micros vector

39. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Technical computer types Netwrked Supers… GRID Legion Condor Beowulf VPPuni SP2 (mP) NOW NEC mP T series SGI DSM clusters & SGI DSM NEC super Cray X…T (all mPv) Mainframes Multis WSs PCs WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM micros vector Old World ( one program stream) New world: Clustered Computing (multiple program streams)

40. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Technical computer types Netwrked Supers… GRID Legion Condor Beowulf VPPuni SP2 (mP) NOW NEC mP T series SGI DSM clusters & SGI DSM NEC super Cray X…T (all mPv) Mainframes Multis WSs PCs WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM micros vector Vectorize Parallellelize MPI, Linda, PVM, Cactus, ??? distributed function Computing Parallellelize

41. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Gaussian Parallelism

42. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Beyond Moore’s Law …>10 yrs Just FCB (faster, cheaper, better)… COTS will soon mean consumer off the shelf Moore’s Law and technology progress likely to continue for another decade for: processing & memory, storage, LANs, & WANs are really evolving System-on-a chip of interesting sizes will emerge to create 0 cost systems No DNA, molecular, or quantum computers, or new stores Any displacement technology is unlikely … Carver Mead’s Law c1980 A technology takes 11 years to get established On the other hand, we are on Internet time!

43. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ We get more of everything

44. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Computer ops/sec x word length / $

45. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 198619881990199219941996 Performance in Mflop/s Micros Supers 8087 80287 6881 80387 R2000 i860 RS6000/540 Alpha RS6000/590 Alpha Cray 1S Cray X-MP Cray 2 Cray Y-MP Cray C90 Cray T90 1998 Growth of microprocessor performance 19801982

46. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Albert Yu predictions ‘96 When20002006 Clock (MHz)9004000 MTransistors40350 Mops240020,000 Die (sq. in.)1.11.4

47. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Processor Limit: DRAM Gap Alpha 21264 full cache miss / instructions executed: 180 ns/1.7 ns =108 clks x 4 or 432 instructions Caches in Pentium Pro: 64% area, 88% transistors *Taken from Patterson-Keeton Talk to SigMod “Moore’s Law”

48. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Sony Playstation export limiits

49. System-on-a-chip alternatives FPGASea of un-committed gate arrays Xylinx, Altera Compile a system Unique processor for every app Tensillica Systolic | array Many pipelined or parallel processors DSP | VLIW Special purpose processors TI Pc & Mp. ASICS Gen. Purpose cores. Specialized by I/O, etc. Intel, Lucent, IBM Universal Micro Multiprocessor array, programmable I/o Cradle

50. Cradle: Universal Microsystem trading Verilog & hardware for C/C++ Single part for all apps Programming @ run time via FPGA & ROM 5 quad mPs at 3 Gflops/quad = 15 Glops Single shared memory space, caches Programmable periphery including: 1 GB/s; 2.5 Gips PCI, 100 baseT, firewire $4 per flops; 150 mW/Gflops UMS : VLSI = microprocessor : special systems Software : Hardware

51. UMS Architecture Memory bandwidth scales with processing Scalable processing, software, I/O Each app runs on its own pool of processors Enables durable, portable intellectual property

52. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Free 32 bit processor core

53. Linus’s Law: Linux everywhere Software is or should be free All source code is “open” Everyone is a tester Everything proceeds a lot faster when everyone works on one code Anyone can support and market the code for any price Zero cost software attracts users! All the developers write lots of code

54. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ ISTORE Hardware Vision System-on-a-chip enables computer, memory, without significantly increasing size of disk 5-7 year target: MicroDrive:1.7” x 1.4” x 0.2” 2006: ? 1999: 340 MB, 5400 RPM, 5 MB/s, 15 ms seek 2006: 9 GB, 50 MB/s ? (1.6X/yr capacity, 1.4X/yr BW) Integrated IRAM processor 2x height Connected via crossbar switch growing like Moore’s law 16 Mbytes; ; 1.6 Gflops; 6.4 Gops 10,000+ nodes in one rack! 100/board = 1 TB; 0.16 Tf

55. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The Disk Farm? or a System On a Card? The 500GB disc card An array of discs Can be used as 100 discs 1 striped disc 50 FT discs....etc LOTS of accesses/second of bandwidth A few disks are replaced by 10s of Gbytes of RAM and a processor to run Apps!! 14"

56. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Nanochip.com

57. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Disk vs Tape At 10K$/TB disks are competitive with nearline tape. Disk – 40 GB – 20 MBps – 5 ms seek time – 3 ms rotate latency – 7$/GB for drive 3$/GB for ctlrs/cabinet – 4 TB/rack – 1 hour scan Tape – 40 GB – 10 MBps – 10 sec pick time – 30-120 second seek time – 2$/GB for media 8$/GB for drive+library – 10 TB/rack – 1 week scan The price advantage of tape is narrowing, and the performance advantage of disk is growing Guestimates Cern: 200 TB 3480 tapes 2 col = 50GB Rack = 1 TB =20 drives

58. 1988 Federal Plan for Internet

59. Telnet & FTP EMAIL WWW AudioVideo Voice! Standards Increase Capacity (circuits & bw) Lower response time Create new service Increased Demand The virtuous cycle of bandwidth supply and demand

60. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ 744Mbps over 5000 km to transmit 14 GB ~ 4e15 bit meters per second 4 Peta Bmps (“peta bumps”) Single Stream tcp/ip throughput Information Sciences Institute Microsoft QWest University of Washington Pacific Northwest Gigapop HSCC (high speed connectivity consortium) DARPA

61. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Map of Gray Bell Prize results Redmond/Seattle, WA San Francisco, CA New York Arlington, VA 5626 km 10 hops

62. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ 1 GBps Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs in 5 years 1Gbps Ethernet are reality now. – Also FiberChannel,MyriNet, GigaNet, ServerNet,, ATM,… 10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now (OC192) – 3 Tbps WDM working in lab In 5 years, expect 10x, wow!! 5 MBps 20 MBps 40 MBps 80 MBps 120 MBps (1Gbps)

63. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The Promise of SAN/VIA:10x in 2 years http://www.ViArch.org/ http://www.ViArch.org/ Yesterday: – 10 MBps (100 Mbps Ethernet) – ~20 MBps tcp/ip saturates 2 cpus – round-trip latency ~250 µs Now – Wires are 10x faster Myrinet, Gbps Ethernet, ServerNet,… – Fast user-level communication - tcp/ip ~ 100 MBps 10% cpu - round-trip latency is 15 us 1.6 Gbps demoed on a WAN

64. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ How much does wire-time cost? $/Mbyte? Odlyzko, 1998 & Jim Gray Cost ($) Time Gbps Ethernet.2µ 10 ms 100 Mbps Ethernet.3µ100 ms OC12 (650 Mbps).003 20 ms DSL.0006 25 sec POTs.002200 sec Wireless.80500 sec

65. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Modern scalable switches … are also supercomputers Scale from <1 to 120 Tbps 1 Gbps ethernet switches scale to 10s of Gbps, scaling upward SP2 scales from 1.2

66. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ So where are the challenges? Continued development based on clusters … Scalar processors need to compete with vectors. The U.S. has cast its lot with COTS! WWW is here. Now exploit it in every respect. – Exploit OSS! Grid Application Service Providers for scientific and technical apps – Biologist and chemist workbenches are prototypes – Labscape @ Cell laboratory, U. of WA – Sloan sky survey

67. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Labscape 1 st, 2 nd, 3 rd, or New Paradigm for science?

68. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Labscape

69. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Labscape

70. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Labscape sensors Location tracking of people/samples – multiple resolutions – passive and active tags Manual tasks (e.g., use of reagents, tools) Audio/video records, vision and indexing Networked instruments (e.g., pipettes, refrigerators, etc.)

71. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ What am I willing to predict? Processing can be anywhere… – Maui… in the winter. BW is the limiter! – Japan… if supers are so super, otherwise use PCs – In the disks – Application Service Providers: separation of our data from ourselves and businesses The GRID e.g. biologist & chemist workbenches iff the IP doesn’t get in way Collaboration ala astrophysics (high energy physics, math, earth sci. and any pure science if pure science continues!) OSS is the big bang for supercomputing??

72. Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The End