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Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ More Wheels of Reincarnation Or A New PC+, www+ Era? Infinite processing, memory, and zero cost Gordon.

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Presentation on theme: "Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ More Wheels of Reincarnation Or A New PC+, www+ Era? Infinite processing, memory, and zero cost Gordon."— Presentation transcript:

1 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ More Wheels of Reincarnation Or A New PC+, www+ Era? Infinite processing, memory, and zero cost Gordon Bell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Corporation

2 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The Highly Probable Future c items from J. Coates, Futurist, Vol. 84, B, english speaking, personally tagged & identified, prosthetic assisted and/or mutant, tense people who have access & control of their medical records Everything will be smart, responsive to environment. – Sensing of everything… challenge for science & engineering! – Fast broadband network – Smart appliances & AI – Tele-all: shop, vote, meet, work, etc. – Robots do everything, but there may be conflict with labor… A managed, physical and man-made world – Reliable weather reports – Many natural disasters e.g. floods, earthquakes, will be mitigated, controlled or prevented Nobel prize to economist for value of information No surprises. We can see 10 years, but not 20!

3 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ IP On Everything

4 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ poochi

5 BIO INTELLIGENCE AGE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT TIME (year) 2000 BC AD CONSUMER ACCEPTANCE AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIAL BIOINTELLIGENCE INFORMATION R. Satava 29 July 99

6 The only thing that matters at the end of the day is, its a great building.

7 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ PC At An Inflection Point PCs Non-PC devices and Internet

8 The Dawn Of The PC-Plus Era, Not The Post-PC Era… devices aggregate via PCs!!! Consumer PCs TV/AV MobileCompanions Household Management Communications Automation & Security

9 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg Using PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation

10 Home CATV Analog/digital cable distribution PC broadcasts are mixed into home CATV in analog and/or MPEG digital Ethernet Home network Video capture milliBill Basic ideas: 1. PC records or plays thru video cable channels. 2. PC broadcasts art images, webcams, presentations, videos, DVDs, etc. 3. Ethernet not cable? Settop box Another big bang? Internet to TV and audio: The Net, PC meet the TV

11 Images from: A gallery that sells art on line

12

13 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Voice to WEB Bridge Web Server Web Server TheWeb DataBase PSTN The Next Convergence POTS connects to the Web a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways

14 PC will prevail for the next decade as the dominant platform… its COTS or COTS AND www! Moores Law increases performance; and alternatively reduces prices PC server clusters with low cost OS beat proprietary switches, smPs, and DSMs Home entertainment & control … – Very large disks (1TB by 2005) to store everything personal – Screens to enhance use Lack of last mile bandwidth to move pictures, data, and interact favors home mainframes aka PCs C = Commercial; C = Consumer

15 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ My betting record: No losses … so far (>5year old bets) Not TMC & MPP domination by 1995 … c1990 with Danny Hillis Video On Demand will not exist by 1995 AT&T acquisition of NCR will not be successful Not 10K by 1/2001 Not 1 B internet users by 1/2001 or 1/2002 Cars wont drive themselves by 2005 PCs continue with 2 digit growth through 2002

16 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Outline Future predictions… 2020 and the world Caveat: How far out can we see? WWW just >5 years old Background: Bell-Gray c1995 our bet on SNAP My own history of supercomputing… from last Salishan The hardware scene in 5-10 years? – Processing and Moores Law – Networking – Disks Challenges: – OSS – Communities with dbases & hs nets – ASP: workbenches – If simulation is third mode after theory, expt, what is 4 th ? connection with the experimental world for data; then control… biologist workbench where work is being done.

17 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ SNAP … c1995 S calable N etwork A nd P latforms A View of Computing in We all missed the impact of WWW! Gordon Bell Jim Gray

18 How Will Future Computers Be Built? Thesis: SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms Upsize from desktop to world-scale computer based on a few standard components Because: Moores law: exponential progress Standardization & Commoditization Stratification and competition When: Sooner than you think! Massive standardization gives massive use Economic forces are enormous

19 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Performance versus time for various microprocessors

20 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Volume drives simple, cost to standard platforms performanceperformance Stand-alone Desk tops PCs

21 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The economics of operating systems and databases

22 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Innovation The Virtuous Economic Cycle drives the PC industry… & Beowulf Volume Competition Standards Utility/value DOJ

23 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The UNIX Trap: creating the myth of open systems Standard has meant different! VendorIX platforms have created the downsizing market that provides an apparent, cost reduction Hardware platform vendors lock-in users with servers of proprietary UNIX dialects and unique chips to maintain margins for chip and UNIX development VendorIX R & D costs ­ $1.4 - $2 billion Implied selling price ­ $ billion for $1.4 billion, or a sales tax of 1 million UNIX units of $10,000 Users hostage with client-server, database, and apps An implicit or unconscious cartel has formed that maintains the industry status quo

24 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The UNIX Cartel and Tax: Its not competitive and it introduces higher downstream costs ­10,000 companies maintain dialects R & D costs ­ $1.4 - $2 billion Implied selling price ­ $ billion for $1.4 billion, or a sales tax of 1 million UNIX units of $10,000 Cost could be reduced to ­ $400 million for ONE UNIX, sales price for 1 million units would be $2, ,000 NT sales price is $650; OS2 needs to sell for $1.2b/6m Furthermore: The downstream effects on database vendors is 40% R&D efficiency causing an implied database tax of 2.5x the sales price! The downstream effects on apps vendors is similar xx

25 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ SNAP Architecture

26 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Computing SNAP Environment circa ­ 2000 Local & global data comm world ATM & Local Area Networks for: terminal, PC, workstation, & servers Centralized & departmental uni- & mP servers (UNIX & NT) Legacy mainframes & minicomputers servers & terms Wide-area global ATM network Legacy mainframe & minicomputer servers & terminals Centralized & departmental scalable uni- & mP servers* (NT & UNIX) NT, Windows & UNIX person servers Platforms: X86 PowerPC... etc. Universal high speed data service using ATM or ?? NT, Windows & UNIX person servers* * multicomputers built from multiple simple, servers NFS, database, compute, print, & communication servers also mb/s pt-to-pt Ethernet TC=TV+PC home... (CATV or ATM or satellite) ??? Mobile Nets Portables A space, time (bandwidth), & generation scalable environment

27 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Computing SNAP built entirely from PCs Wide & Local Area Networks for: terminal, PC, workstation, & servers Centralized & departmental uni- & mP servers (UNIX & NT) Legacy mainframes & minicomputers servers & terms Wide-area global network Legacy mainframe & minicomputer servers & terminals Centralized & departmental servers buit from PCs scalable computers built from PCs TC=TV+PC home... (CATV or ATM or satellite) ??? Portables A space, time (bandwidth), & generation scalable environment Person servers (PCs) Person servers (PCs) Mobile Nets

28 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ GB with NT, Compaq, & HP cluster

29 In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers – processing x; multiprocessors-on-a-chip – 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper – Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays – low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use adequate networking? PCs now operate at 1 Gbps – ubiquitous access = todays fast LANs – Competitive wireless networking One chip, networked platforms e.g. light bulbs, cameras everywhere, & managed by PCs! Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market share watch, pocket, body implant, home Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.

30 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ High Performance Computing A 60+ year view

31 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+

32 Star Bridge

33 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Linux super howls

34 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Dead Supercomputer Society

35 ACRI Alliant American Supercomputer Ametek Applied Dynamics Astronautics BBN CDC Convex Cray Computer Cray Research Culler-Harris Culler Scientific Cydrome Dana/Ardent/Stellar/Stardent Denelcor Elexsi ETA Systems Evans and Sutherland Computer Floating Point Systems Galaxy YH-1 Goodyear Aerospace MPP Gould NPL Guiltech Intel Scientific Computers International Parallel Machines Kendall Square Research Key Computer Laboratories MasPar Meiko Multiflow Myrias Numerix Prisma Tera Thinking Machines Saxpy Scientific Computer Systems (SCS) Soviet Supercomputers Supertek Supercomputer Systems Suprenum Vitesse Electronics

36 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Steve Squires & Cray

37 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t) Petaflops study target NEC XMP NCube CM2 *IBM

38 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Top 10 tpc-c

39 Courtesy of Dr. Thomas Sterling, Caltech

40

41 Contributions of Beowulf An experiment in parallel computing systems Established vision low cost high end computing Demonstrated effectiveness of PC clusters for some (not all) classes of applications Provided networking software Provided cluster management tools Conveyed findings to broad community Tutorials and the book GB: Provided design standard to rally community! Standards beget: books, trained people, software … virtuous cycle Courtesy of Dr. Thomas Sterling, Caltech

42 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ High performance architectures timeline VtubesTrans.MSI(mini) Micro RISCnMicr IBM PC Processoroverlap, lookahead killer micros Cray era Cray1X Y C T FuncPipeVector-----SMP > SMPmainframes--->multis > DSM??Mmax.KSR SGI----> ClustersTandmVAXIBM UNIX-> MPP if n>1000 Ncube IntelIBM-> Local NOW and Global Networks n>10,000 Grid

43 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ High performance architectures timeline VtubesTrans.MSI(mini) Micro RISCnMicr IBM PC Sequential programming----> (single execution stream e.g. Fortran) Processoroverlap, lookahead killer micros Cray era Cray1X Y C T FuncPipeVector-----SMP > SMPmainframes--->multis > DSM??Mmax.KSR DASHSGI---> MPP if n>1000 Ncube IntelIBM-> Local NOW Beowlf and Global Networks n>10,000 Grid

44 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ High performance architecture/program timeline VtubesTrans.MSI(mini) Micro RISCnMicr Sequential programming----> (single execution stream)

45 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Computer types Netwrked Supers… GRID Legion Condor Beowulf NT clusters VPPuni T3E SP2 (mP) NOW NEC mP SGI DSM clusters & SGI DSM NEC super Cray X…T (all mPv) Mainframes Multis WSs PCs Connectivity WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM micros vector Clusters

46 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Technical computer types: Pick of: 4 nodes, 2-3 interconnects Fujitsu Hitachi IBM ?PC? SGI cluster Beow/NT NEC SGI DSM T3 HP? NEC super Cray ??? Fujitsu Hitachi HP IBM Intel SUN plain old PCs SAN DSM SMP micros vector

47 Technical computer types Netwrked Supers… GRID Legion Condor Beowulf VPPuni SP2 (mP) NOW NEC mP T series SGI DSM clusters & SGI DSM NEC super Cray X…T (all mPv) Mainframes Multis WSs PCs WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM micros vector Old World ( one program stream) New world: Clustered Computing (multiple program streams)

48 Technical computer types Netwrked Supers… GRID Legion Condor Beowulf VPPuni SP2 (mP) NOW NEC mP T series SGI DSM clusters & SGI DSM NEC super Cray X…T (all mPv) Mainframes Multis WSs PCs WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM micros vector Vectorize Parallellelize MPI, Linda, PVM, Cactus, ??? distributed function Computing Parallellelize

49 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Gaussian Parallelism

50 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Beyond Moores Law …>10 yrs Just FCB (faster, cheaper, better)… COTS will soon mean consumer off the shelf Moores Law and technology progress likely to continue for another decade for: processing & memory, storage, LANs, & WANs are really evolving System-on-a chip of interesting sizes will emerge to create 0 cost systems No DNA, molecular, or quantum computers, or new stores Any displacement technology is unlikely … Carver Meads Law c1980 A technology takes 11 years to get established On the other hand, we are on Internet time!

51 High Performance Computing Supers we knew are Japanese… we have to stay the course. We actually may win! PC will continue to erode capacity need Scalability & COTS are in… but you have to roll your own else pay VendorIX taxes Beowulf is $14K/TB ( 6 x 4 x 40 GB) IBM 4000R 1 rack: 2x42 500Mhz processors, 84 GB, 84 disks $420K … still cheaper than the big buys $10-20K/node for special purpose vs $2K for a MAC EMC, IBM at $1 million/TB; vs $14K We should back radical experiments!

52 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ We get more of everything

53 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Computer ops/sec x word length / $

54 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC Performance in Mflop/s Micros Supers R2000 i860 RS6000/540 Alpha RS6000/590 Alpha Cray 1S Cray X-MP Cray 2 Cray Y-MP Cray C90 Cray T Growth of microprocessor performance

55 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Albert Yu predictions 96 When Clock (MHz) x MTransistors x Mops240020,0008.3x Die (sq. in.) x

56 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Processor Limit: DRAM Gap Alpha full cache miss / instructions executed: 180 ns/1.7 ns =108 clks x 4 or 432 instructions Caches in Pentium Pro: 64% area, 88% transistors *Taken from Patterson-Keeton Talk to SigMod Moores Law

57 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Sony Playstation export limiits

58 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Things get cheaper

59 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil! $K MB 1 MB 256 KB 64 KB 16 KB Timeshared systems Single-user systems

60 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ VAX Planning Model 1975: I didnt believe it The model was very good – 1978 timeshared $250K VAXen cost about $8K in 1997! Costs declined > 20% – users got lots more memory than I predicted Single user systems didnt come down as fast, unless you consider PDAs VAX ran out of address bits!

61 System-on-a-chip alternatives FPGASea of un-committed gate arrays Xylinx, Altera Compile a system Unique processor for every app Tensillica Systolic | array Many pipelined or parallel processors DSP | VLIW Special purpose processors TI Pc & Mp. ASICS Gen. Purpose cores. Specialized by I/O, etc. Intel, Lucent, IBM Universal Micro Multiprocessor array, programmable I/o Cradle

62 Cradle: Universal Microsystem trading Verilog & hardware for C/C++ Single part for all apps run time via FPGA & ROM 5 quad mPs at 3 Gflops/quad = 15 Glops Single shared memory space, caches Programmable periphery including: 1 GB/s; 2.5 Gips PCI, 100 baseT, firewire $4 per flops; 150 mW/Gflops UMS : VLSI = microprocessor : special systems Software : Hardware

63 UMS Architecture Memory bandwidth scales with processing Scalable processing, software, I/O Each app runs on its own pool of processors Enables durable, portable intellectual property

64 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Free 32 bit processor core

65 Linuss Law: Linux everywhere Software is or should be free All source code is open Everyone is a tester Everything proceeds a lot faster when everyone works on one code Anyone can support and market the code for any price Zero cost software attracts users! All the developers write lots of code

66 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ ISTORE Hardware Vision System-on-a-chip enables computer, memory, without significantly increasing size of disk 5-7 year target: MicroDrive:1.7 x 1.4 x : ? 1999: 340 MB, 5400 RPM, 5 MB/s, 15 ms seek 2006: 9 GB, 50 MB/s ? (1.6X/yr capacity, 1.4X/yr BW) Integrated IRAM processor 2x height Connected via crossbar switch growing like Moores law 16 Mbytes; ; 1.6 Gflops; 6.4 Gops 10,000+ nodes in one rack! 100/board = 1 TB; 0.16 Tf

67 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The Disk Farm? or a System On a Card? The 500GB disc card An array of discs Can be used as 100 discs 1 striped disc 50 FT discs....etc LOTS of accesses/second of bandwidth A few disks are replaced by 10s of Gbytes of RAM and a processor to run Apps!! 14"

68 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Nanochip.com

69 Disk vs Tape At 10K$/TB disks are competitive with nearline tape. Disk – 40 GB – 20 MBps – 5 ms seek time – 3 ms rotate latency – 7$/GB for drive 3$/GB for ctlrs/cabinet – 4 TB/rack – 1 hour scan Tape – 40 GB – 10 MBps – 10 sec pick time – second seek time – 2$/GB for media 8$/GB for drive+library – 10 TB/rack – 1 week scan The price advantage of tape is narrowing, and the performance advantage of disk is growing Guestimates Cern: 200 TB 3480 tapes 2 col = 50GB Rack = 1 TB =20 drives

70 1988 Federal Plan for Internet

71 Telnet & FTP WWW AudioVideo Voice! Standards Increase Capacity (circuits & bw) Lower response time Create new service Increased Demand The virtuous cycle of bandwidth supply and demand

72 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ 744Mbps over 5000 km to transmit 14 GB ~ 4e15 bit meters per second 4 Peta Bmps (peta bumps) Single Stream tcp/ip throughput Information Sciences Institute Microsoft QWest University of Washington Pacific Northwest Gigapop HSCC (high speed connectivity consortium) DARPA

73 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Map of Gray Bell Prize results Redmond/Seattle, WA San Francisco, CA New York Arlington, VA 5626 km 10 hops

74 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ 1 GBps Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs in 5 years 1Gbps Ethernet are reality now. – Also FiberChannel,MyriNet, GigaNet, ServerNet,, ATM,… 10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now (OC192) – 3 Tbps WDM working in lab In 5 years, expect 10x, wow!! 5 MBps 20 MBps 40 MBps 80 MBps 120 MBps (1Gbps)

75 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The Promise of SAN/VIA:10x in 2 years Yesterday: – 10 MBps (100 Mbps Ethernet) – ~20 MBps tcp/ip saturates 2 cpus – round-trip latency ~250 µs Now – Wires are 10x faster Myrinet, Gbps Ethernet, ServerNet,… – Fast user-level communication - tcp/ip ~ 100 MBps 10% cpu - round-trip latency is 15 us 1.6 Gbps demoed on a WAN

76 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ How much does wire-time cost? $/Mbyte? Odlyzko, 1998 & Jim Gray Cost ($) Time Gbps Ethernet.2µ 10 ms 100 Mbps Ethernet.3µ100 ms OC12 (650 Mbps) ms DSL sec POTs sec Wireless sec

77 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Modern scalable switches … also hide a supercomputer Scale from <1 to 120 Tbps 1 Gbps ethernet switches scale to 10s of Gbps, scaling upward SP2 scales from 1.2

78 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Where are the challenges? Continued development based on clusters … Scalar processors need to compete with vectors. The U.S. has cast its lot with COTS! Explore radical alternatives. WWW is here. Now exploit it in every respect. – Exploit OSS… though it may not be new! – Telepresence & interactive communities!!! – Grid as a prelude to: – Application Service Providers - Prototype biologist and chemist workbenches - Cell laboratory, U. of WA - Sloan sky survey

79 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Labscape 1 st, 2 nd, 3 rd, or New Paradigm for science?

80 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Labscape

81 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Labscape

82 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ Labscape sensors Location tracking of people/samples – multiple resolutions – passive and active tags Manual tasks (e.g., use of reagents, tools) Audio/video records, vision and indexing Networked instruments (e.g., pipettes, refrigerators, etc.)

83 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ What am I willing to predict? Processing & data can be anywhere… – Maui… in winter. BW is the limiter! – Japan… if supers are so super else use PCs – In the disks – Application Service Providers: can we separate our data from ourselves and businesses (ying-yang of personal versus central services) The GRID e.g. biologist & chemist workbenches iff the IP doesnt get in way Collaboration ala astrophysics (high energy physics, math, earth sci. and any pure science if pure science continues!) OSS is the big bang for supercomputing??

84 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ The End

85 BIO INTELLIGENCE AGE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT TIME (year) 2000 BC AD CONSUMER ACCEPTANCE AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIAL BIOINTELLIGENCE INFORMATION R. Satava 29 July 99


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