1. Hurricanes Smoking Guns of Climate Change or random occurrences?

2. Hurricane Attributes A Central Pressure A hurricane wind radius (quite variable) A duration A location An evolutionary timescale (spin up times) A total power at landfall Need to link all of these together  Emily Chi Thesis

3. Atlantic Hurricane Formation Low pressure centers form over Sahara desert and may get amplified as they cross open ocean Amplification depends critically on SST and available moisture in the atmosphere Must also have favorable wind conditions (light winds aloft) and weak wind shear

4. Hurricane Frequency Increasing? This is difficult to establish with a high degree of statistical confidence; Incompleteness is an important issue

5. Counting is always noisy RADAR in the 1950s

6. Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)

7. Frequency Mimics AMO

8. One Good Simulation  Using real fluid dynamics  predicted effect is relatively small in the average but the tails are important!

9. Difficulties Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult..

10. Total Power Attributes Central pressure; central wind speed Central pressure; central wind speed Total hurricane wind radius Total hurricane wind radius Total moisture content Total moisture content We do not have good measurements on the latter two except for the last 15 years or so We do not have good measurements on the latter two except for the last 15 years or so

11. But, this may be a diagnostic

12. Track Density Analysis