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Published byFrancis Lawrence
Modified over 7 years ago
Global warming and severe weather: hurricanes
Hurricanes and global warming More hurricanes – Warming SST’s (sea surface temperatures) suggest greater source of energy for hurricanes, hence they should be more frequent
N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance. SST (1944-2005)
Hurricanes and global warming Fewer hurricanes – Increased wind shear – Increasing atmospheric stability
La Nina Drawing
El Nino Drawing/animation
Southern Oscillation and global warming ENSO not caused by global warming ENSO is natural cycle More El Nino conditions under global warming
Source of uncertainties Small sample size (only a few hurricanes each year)
Early view of hurricane structure, 1946
Radar-based hurricane tracking, 1960
Source of uncertainties Difficult to separate natural and anthropogenic influences on the conditions leading to hurricane development
Source of uncertainties Different ways to quantify hurricane activity? – Strength? – Frequency? – Duration of season? – Tracks?
Current Variations Not all currents are driven by the wind.
Are some hazards increasing in magnitude? How is the magnitude of hazards changing? Which hazards are increasing and why?
El Niño. What is El Niño? A shift in ocean current direction and water temperature El Niño: the ocean part: Warm phase of ENSO: El Niño - Southern Oscillation.
El Niño & La Niña.
ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation Pages NORMAL conditions Trade Winds Cool water pools near S.America, Warm water pools near Australia.
Describe the general atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns that characterize La Nina and El Nino Describe the effects of La Nina and El Nino Explain.
ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) ENVS
Factors That Affect Climate CHAPTER Climate vs. Weather…. Climate: An established pattern of weather over a long period of time Weather: the.
2009 global climate: A tale of five timeseries Global mean temperature El Ni ñ o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation Annular modes.
Assessing Hurricane Intensity TEAM TIGERS HeatherEleanorMattAristaElizabeth This presentation funded by Halliburton.
May 2007 vegetation Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Weather and climate in the 21 st Century: What do we know? What don’t we know?
Impacts of El Nino Observations Mechanisms for remote impacts.
News 8 Girl Scout Day November 1, 2008 “The El Nino Phenomenon” News 8 Austin Weather Burton Fitzsimmons.
El Nino and La Nina An important atmospheric variation that has an average period of three to seven years. Goes between El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina (ENSO.
Planetary Scale Weather Regimes: ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation): A global teleconnection, strongest in the Pacific, between the tropical oceans and.
India’s Water Crisis El Niño, Monsoon, and Indian Ocean Oscillation.
Extreme Events and Climate Variability. Issues: Scientists are telling us that global warming means more extreme weather. Every year we seem to experience.
BASICS OF EL NIÑO- SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) Ernesto R. Verceles PAGASA.
Genesis Potential Index and ENSO Suzana J. Camargo.
The Correlation between Atlantic Hurricane Frequency and ENSO Jessica Johnson EAS 4480 Spring 2012.
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