Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

General Body Meeting 03.31.11. Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Agenda  Announcements  News Updates  Healthcare Sector Pitch 2.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "General Body Meeting 03.31.11. Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Agenda  Announcements  News Updates  Healthcare Sector Pitch 2."— Presentation transcript:

1 General Body Meeting 03.31.11

2 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Agenda  Announcements  News Updates  Healthcare Sector Pitch 2

3 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Announcements 3

4 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell News Updates 4

5 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell U.S. Economy  Friday is jobs day  Home prices remain weak  Case-Shiller: -3.06%  Bernanke to hold quarterly press conferences after FOMC policy meetings  Consumer confidence down slightly on high oil & food prices as well as general fear from Japan news 5

6 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Syria  Differs from other Arab states with recent unrest  Geopolitically more important  Close alliance with Iran  Active supporter of terrorist organizations (Hamas, Hezbollah)  Major influence in Lebanon  Not a major oil exporter by Middle-East standards 6

7 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Update on Japan  Death toll > 11,000 and more than 16,200 missing  Nuclear contamination is dropping  Commitment to utilize help in nuclear crisis  Reconstruction efforts in action  Nikkei trading at highest since March 11 th (9,723)  Regaining from initial low of 8,354 on the March 15 th  Japanese Yen finally falling 7

8 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Libya  President Obama defended the American-led military assault in Libya  American warplanes appeared to have opened a new line of attack on pro-Qaddafi forces  Rebel army working under cover of Allied forces  Libyan rebels retaking key oil facilities which could allow for the limited resumption of exportation 8

9 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Home Prices Fall for 7 th Straight Month  Just 1.1% above the low of April 2009  Index data lags recent rise in mortgage rates – more room to drop?

10 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell AT&T/T-Mobile Merger Ma Bell is Back

11 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Deal Terms  AT&T plans to acquire T-Mobile USA from DT for $39 billion  $25 billion in cash  $14 billion in stock  $3 billion breakup fee  Deal is double the EBITDA premium of comparable transactions  1 year bank loan of $20 billion to finance deal  Greenhill, Evercore, JPM advised AT&T  MS, DB, CS advised DT  Combined customer base: 130 million – largest in USA

12 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Anti-trust Hurdle  Deal still faces intense scrutiny from FCC for anti- trust possibilities before approving merger  Verizon and AT&T would become the two main players in the market, dominating over 80% of market  Potentially bad for consumers

13 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Synergy?  $40 billion in cost cutting  Thousands of job losses  Difference in company culture  T-Mobile historically more innovative  AT&T historically more controlling/monopolistic  Allows upgrading of network to improve coverage and speed – currently a struggle for AT&T  Eased by both companies using the same GSM technology  Analysts are not so sure that even with combined infrastructure, service would improve with the combined customer base

14 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Grandfathering  T-Mobile data subscribers have a noticeable lower cost for data than AT&T 1. Grandfathering in old data plans would decrease AT&T’s ARPU 2. Not grandfathering in old data plans may result in mass migration

15 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Impact on Other Players  Verizon – not really impacted by deal so long as they stick to their core strengths  Possibility of picking up some disgruntled T-Mobile subscribers  Sprint – likely to be a loser with allocated spectrum space, customer base, and regulatory issues  Vendors (infrastructure & handset makers) – with one main customer for GSM technology, AT&T would have significant pricing power and leverage  Google – as T-Mobile was a great partner for Android, there is uncertainty as to how AT&T will handle the Android platform going forward

16 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Gilead Sciences (GILD) Healthcare Sector Team

17 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Gilead Sciences Inc. 17

18 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Company Overview  Engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutics for the treatment of life threatening diseases worldwide  Primary areas of focus  HIV/ AIDS  Liver disease  Serious cardiovascular/metabolic and respiratory conditions.

19 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Thesis and Key Debates  Growing multinational corporation  Large patient pool  Strong growth potential  Competitive pipeline  No patent cliff until 2014  Undervalued 19

20 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Worldwide Presence  Multinational Corporation with 4000 employees  Expanding global access to their medications Gilead Access Program Substantially reduce prices in many low- and middle-income countries. Local Manufacturing in Africa Non-exclusive partnership with South Africa-based Aspen Pharmacare Manufactures and distributes Gilead therapies throughout Africa. 20

21 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Worldwide Presence Cont.  Partnerships with Generic Manufacturers  Signed non-exclusive licenses with multiple generic manufacturers in India and South Africa. Their partners will produce high-quality, low-cost generic versions of Viread and Viread-containing regimens in 95 resource-limited countries Home to 75 percent of the world's HIV-infected people Helping ensure competitive pricing, thus promoting broad access to HIV treatment for patients in developing countries. 21

22 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Sales Worldwide 22

23 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Affordability in the US  Patient Access in the United States  Gilead supports a number of programs for eligible patients in the United States Do not have insurance, are underinsured or who otherwise need financial assistance Includes programs assisting with HIV/AIDS and chronic hepatitis B 23

24 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Patent Advantage  Under Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act  FDA grant biologic manufacturers 12 years of exclusive use  No development within those years  FDA must approve generic drugs  Lots of red tape  High costs for less margin in generics 24

25 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Patent Expiration 25 ProductsUS patent ExpirationEuropean Patent Expiration Vistide20102012 Hespera20142011 Letairis2015 AmBisome20162008 Tamiflu2016 Macugen2017 Viread20172018 Ranexa2019 Lexiscan20192020 Emtriva20212016 Truvada20212018 Atripla20212018 Cayston2021

26 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell HIV/ AIDS  What is HIV/AIDS?  Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is the virus that causes the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)  Most people progress from HIV to AIDS in 6 to 12 years  In AIDS the immune system cannot function properly Without treatment this stage of the disease is fatal  No known cure Can only prevent or reverse damage to the immune system 26

27 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell HIV/ AIDS Statistics  Worldwide  31- 36 million people living with this disease worldwide  2- 3 million adults newly infected each year  In the United States  1- 1.2 million people living with HIV/ AIDS  About 60,000 people newly infected each year  More than 18,000 people die each year from the disease 27

28 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell HIV Worldwide 28

29 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Liver Disease- Hepatitis B  What is Hepatitis B?  Irritation and swelling of the liver caused by the hepatitis B virus  Very contagious  Most common serious liver infection worldwide  Acute Phase Lasts 1-4 months and easily destroyed by body’s immune system; most people fight this off  Chronic Phase 5- 10% of people develop this serious form of the disease 29

30 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Hepatitis B Statistics  Worldwide  2 billion people have either acute or chronic phase  About 350 million people are infected with the chronic phase of the disease  620,000 people die each year  In the US  800,000 to 1.4 million people have the chronic form  Since 1991 82% decrease in the US 30

31 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Hepatitis B Worldwide 31

32 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Cardiovascular Diseases  What are they?  A variety of disease that negatively affect the heart or blood vessels  Claim 17.1 million lives a year (29% global deaths)  Strong correlation to obesity, tobacco use and an unhealthy lifestyle  Heart attack and stroke are common results of a poor cardiovascular system  Gilead fighting against pulmonary arterial hypertension and chronic angina pain 32

33 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Respiratory Problems  Cystic Fibrosis  Causes thick, sticky mucus to build up in the lungs and digestive tract  One of the most common chronic lung diseases in children and young adults  70,000 people worldwide with Cystic Fibrosis (30,000 people in the US)  Influenza  Very contagious  5% to 20% of Americans get the flu every year (Tamiflu) 33

34 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Current Products  HIV/AIDS  Atripla Once-daily regimen for HIV treatment in adults  Emtriva Once-daily oral nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor Used in conjunction with other agents; suitable for children  Viread Once-daily oral nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor Treatment for adults and adolescents Approved in 2008 as a treatment for chronic hepatitis B in adults. 34

35 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Current Products  HIV/AIDS  Truvada Fixed-dose once-daily combination pill Contains Viread and Emtriva Combination makes up 85% market share in HIV/AIDS  Liver Disease (Hepatitis B)  Hepsera Once-daily, oral NRTI for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B For use in patients 12 years of age and older. 35

36 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Current Products  Cardiovascular Diseases  Letairis Once-daily treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension Improves exercise performance and delays clinical treatment  Lexiscan First A 2A adenosine receptor agonist approved by the FDA Used as a pharmacologic stress agent in radionuclide studies Targets the A 2A adenosine receptor responsible for coronary vasodilation.  Ranexa An extended-release tablet for the treatment of chronic angina Prescriptions have grown 79% in the past several years 36

37 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Current Products  Respiratory Diseases  Cayston Improves respiratory symptoms in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa  Tamiflu First tablet for the treatment and prevention of influenza A and B Stockpiled by governments after swine/avian flu scares  Other Products  AmBisome Treats life-threatening, systemic fungal infections in adults 37

38 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Product Trends  FDA approves 20 drugs per year  Gilead: 9 drugs approved in last 11 years  Great positive trends as of late for little cost  Antiviral product sales up 13% in the US, 9% in Europe  Royalty revenues increased 10% to $546 million  R&D expense increased only 12% last year This was primarily due to changes in writing off Goodwill 38

39 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Products and Margin 39

40 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Pipeline and Clinical Trial Results  HIV/AIDS  Truvada Single-Tablet Regimen (III) More patients taking Truvada had an undetectable viral load than those taking Efavirenz; Well tolerated  Elvitegravir (III) Once-daily Elvitegravir achieved a higher viral suppression rate than Raltegravir after 48 weeks  Integrase Single-Tablet Regimen "Quad” (III) Well tolerated; Maintained a higher rate of virologic suppression than Atripla after 48 weeks 40

41 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Pipeline and Clinical Trial Results  HIV/AIDS  Cobicistat (III) Well tolerated; Achieved a viral suppression rate similar to Ritonavir  Liver Disease (Hepatitis C)  GS 9451 (II) Well tolerated; Highly potent anti-HCV activity and once- daily dosing potential 41

42 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Pipeline and Clinical Trial Results  Liver Disease (Hepatitis C)  GS 9256 (II) Well tolerated; Substantial suppression of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) within 28 days of treatment  GS 9190 (II) Well tolerated; Substantial suppression of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) within 28 days of treatment 42

43 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Pipeline and Clinical Trial Results  Respiratory  Aztreonam for Inhalation Solution (Cystic Fibrosis) (III) FDA-approved for cystic fibrosis (CF) patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa; likely to be approved for CF patients with Burkholderia cepacia  Aztreonam for Inhalation Solution (Bronchiectasis) (II) Resulted in significant reduction of pathogen density and a clinically significant improvement in respiratory symptoms 43

44 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Pipeline and Clinical Trial Results  Cardiovascular/Metabolic  Cicletanine (Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension) (II) Already approved in certain European countries as a once-daily monotherapy treatment for hypertension; Granted orphan drug status for treatment of PAH by FDA  Ranolazine (Coronary Artery Disease/Diabetes) (II) Increased exercise time in patients with Coronary Artery Disease and chest pain 44

45 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Technical Analysis 45

46 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Technical Analysis 46

47 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Gilead v. S&P500 47

48 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Fundamental Analysis 48  Valuation Comparable Valuation Metrics *All figures in millions except per share numbers CompanyEPSP/EEV/EBITDA TickerNamePrice2008A2009E2010E2008A2009E2010E2008A2009E2010P/BookEV/SalesPEG BMY Britstol- Myers 26.681.561.632.0317.1x16.4x13.1x11.5x11.7x10.7x3.672x2.9x1.9x GSK GlaxoSmit hKline 38.541.081.321.0535.7x29.2x36.7x17.4x26.3x21.6x66.7x8.4x1.3x GILDGilead 42.052.082.873.5120.2x14.7x12.0x14.6x11.5x10.3x7.6x4.9x0.7x 17.1x16.4x13.1x11.5x11.7x10.7x3.7x2.9x1.3x 26.4x22.8x24.9x14.4x19.0x16.1x35.2x5.7x1.6x 26.4x22.8x24.9x14.4x19.0x16.1x35.2x5.7x1.6x 35.7x29.2x36.7x17.4x26.3x21.6x66.7x8.4x1.9x

49 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Fundamental Analysis  Profitability 49 EBITDAEBITNetCurrentQuickDebt/Interest TickerCompany NameRONAROEMargin% Ratio EquityCoverage BMYBritstol-Myers40.0%25.1%35.0%31.2%15.9%2.0x1.1x0.4x4.4x GSKGlaxoSmithKline14.8%303.5%27.8% 19.5%1.4x0.6x8.1x3.6x GILDGilead34.7%65.4%53.9%50.6%36.5%2.3x0.9x0.6x4.2x Min0.1x0.3x 0.2x1.4x0.6x0.4x3.6x Mean0.3x1.6x0.3x 0.2x1.7x0.8x4.3x4.0x Median27.4%164.3%31.4%29.5%17.7%1.710.834.273.96 Max0.4x3.0x0.3x 0.2x2.0x1.1x8.1x4.4x

50 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Income Statement 50 Period EndingDec 31, 2010Dec 31, 2009Dec 31, 2008 Total Revenue7,949,420 7,011,383 5,335,750 Cost of Revenue1,869,876 1,595,558 1,127,246 Gross Profit6,079,544 5,415,825 4,208,504 Operating Expenses Research Development1,072,930 939,918 721,768 Selling General and Administrative1,044,392 946,686 797,344 Operating Income or Loss3,962,222 3,529,221 2,678,541 Income from Continuing Operations Total Other Income/Expenses Net60,287 42,397 59,401 Earnings Before Interest And Taxes4,022,509 3,571,618 2,746,506 Interest Expense108,961 69,662 12,101 Income Before Tax3,913,548 3,501,956 2,734,405 Income Tax Expense1,023,799 876,364 723,251 Minority Interest11,508 10,163 8,564 Net Income From Continuing Ops2,901,257 2,635,755 2,011,154 Net Income After Taxes2,901,257 2,635,755 2,011,154

51 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Balance Sheet 51 Dec 31, 2010Dec 31, 2009Dec 31, 2008 Assets Current Assets Cash And Cash Equivalents907,879 1,272,958 1,459,302 Short Term Investments1,190,789 384,017 330,760 Net Receivables1,901,305 1,684,614 1,186,152 Inventory1,203,809 1,051,771 927,868 Other Current Assets504,300 419,198 396,199 Total Current Assets5,708,082 4,812,558 4,300,281 Long Term Investments3,219,403 2,247,871 1,449,577 Property Plant and Equipment701,235 699,970 528,799 Intangible Assets1,425,592 1,524,777 - Other Assets384,939 311,885 456,703 Deferred Long Term Asset Charges153,379 101,498 283,214 Total Assets11,592,630 9,698,559 7,018,574 Liabilities Current Liabilities Accounts Payable1,715,430 1,743,323 1,172,398 Short/Current Long Term Debt646,345 5,587 5,631 Other Current Liabilities103,175 122,721 42,963 Total Current Liabilities2,464,950 1,871,631 1,220,992 Long Term Debt2,838,573 1,155,443 1,321,316 Other Liabilities134,426 123,301 56,588 Deferred Long Term Liability Charges32,844 43,026 74,181 Minority Interest258,108 138,093 193,010 Total Liabilities5,728,901 3,331,494 2,866,087 Total Stockholder Equity5,863,729 6,367,065 4,152,487 Net Tangible Assets4,438,137 4,842,288 4,152,487

52 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Other Positive Indicators  Mean recommendation is BUY (2.0/ 5.0)  Thomson Reuters gave it a score of 9 out of 10 (top 15% of all stocks)  Low Target is $38  Mean Target is $44.40 (7% increase)  Low PEG of 0.7 meaning high growth expected  Positive earnings 9 out of last 12 quarters 52

53 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell DCF Analysis  DCF Analysis  Very conservative WACC of 9%  Net Sales Growth of 5%  Profit margin of 75%  EBIDTA Multiple Method: $42.51- 48.61 EBITDA multiples of 7X and 8X  Perpetuity Growth Method: $55.56- 65.48 Perpetuity growth rates of 2% and 3% 53

54 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Review  Worldwide Presence  Affordable  Third degree price discrimination  Huge patient pool  Strong growth potential  Low PEG  Competitive pipeline  No patent cliff until 2014  Generics cannot be produced for 12 years 54

55 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Proposal  Invest $1500: about 35 shares  In-line with our other investments  Hold for 3 to 4 years  Patents begin to expire  See how market responds to products in the pipeline  Continue to watch for more growth catalysts 55

56 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Questions?  Invest $1500: about 35 shares  In-line with our other investments  Hold for 3 to 4 years  Patents begin to expire  See how market responds to products in the pipeline  Continue to watch for more growth catalysts 56

57 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Thanks for coming by! You are faced with two doors. One door leads you to a job offer and the other leads to nothing. In front of each door is a guard. One always tell the truth, and the other tells only lies. You can ask one question to determine which door to go through. What will you ask? 57


Download ppt "General Body Meeting 03.31.11. Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Agenda  Announcements  News Updates  Healthcare Sector Pitch 2."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google