Presentation on theme: "CONFIDENTIAL Yale College Student Investment Group Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) Presented by: Sudharshan Mohanram, Frank Han."— Presentation transcript:
CONFIDENTIAL Yale College Student Investment Group Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) Presented by: Sudharshan Mohanram, Frank Han
CONFIDENTIAL Investment Thesis Why is stock ‘undervalued’? Overreaction: Gilead Sciences reported disappointing results on its hepatitis C drug GS-7977's study, and its market capitalization fell by as much as $6 billion since the announcement. Why will the price rebound? GS-7977 will likely become the leading therapy in treating Hepatitis C and new trials will be created to allow use in Genotype 1 patients. New data on Genotype 1 patients will be released in the coming weeks. Firm’s HIV business is the global leader in a rapidly growing and highly profitable market, driving growth of company for the foreseeable future. Gradual returns from 11 billion dollar acquisition of Pharmasset Potential FDA approval of revolutionary drugs that will create new, robust revenue streams Company has limited risks, with a diversified portfolio of drugs as well as no major patents expiring until 2018
CONFIDENTIAL Product Line 1.HIV/AIDS Atripla: Atripla is the first once-daily single-tablet regimen for HIV intended as a stand alone therapy or in combination with other antiretrovirals. Truvada: An oral formulation dosed once a day as part of combination therapy to treat HIV infection in adults. It is a fixed-dose combination of our antiretroviral medications, Viread and Emtriva. Viread: An oral formulation of a nucleotide analog reverse transcriptase inhibitor, dosed once a day as part of combination therapy to treat HIV infection in patients 2 years of age and older. Complera/Eviplera: The second complete single-tablet regimen for the treatment of HIV and is a fixed-dose combination of our antiretroviral medications, Viread and Emtriva, and Tibotec Pharmaceuticals’ Edurant. Emtriva: An oral formulation of a nucleoside analog reverse transcriptase inhibitor, dosed once a day as part of combination therapy to treat HIV infection in adults. 2. Liver Disease Viread: An oral formulation of a nucleotide analog reverse transcriptase inhibitor, dosed once a day for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B in adults. Hepsera: An oral formulation of a nucleotide analog polymerase inhibitor, dosed once a day to treat chronic hepatitis B in patients 12 years of age and older.
CONFIDENTIAL Product Line (Cont.) 3.Cardiovascular Letairis: An oral formulation of an endothelin receptor antagonist (ERA) indicated for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension. Ranexa: An extended-release tablet for the treatment of chronic angina. Lexiscan/Rapiscan: An injection is indicated for use as a pharmacologic stress agent in radionuclide myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI), a test that detects and characterizes coronary artery disease, in patients unable to undergo adequate exercise stress. 4.Respiratory Cayston: An inhaled antibiotic for the treatment of respiratory systems in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients 7 years of age and older with Pseudomonas aeruginosa (P. aeruginosa). Tamiflu: An oral antiviral available in capsule form for the treatment and prevention of influenza A and B. 5.Other AmBisome: A proprietary liposomal formulation of amphotericin B, an antifungal agent to treat serious invasive fungal infections caused by various fungal species in adults. Vistide: An antiviral injection for the treatment of cytomegalovirus retinitis in adult patients with AIDS. Macugen: An intravitreal injection of an anti-angiogenic oligonucleotide for the treatment of neovascular age-related macular degeneration.
CONFIDENTIAL Product Sales
Summary of Business Strategy 1.Diversify Portfolio Thru Acquisitions 2.Gain product approvals internationally 3.Extend presence in high margin markets, such as HIV/AIDS 4.Continue to maintain stellar profit margins through inexpensive manufacturing, small sales force, and selective R+D
CONFIDENTIAL Financial Overview
CONFIDENTIAL Financial Analysis Income Statement Revenue8.39B Revenue Growth5.5% Gross Margin78.3% Net Income2.80B Operating Margin45.2% Net Profit Margin33.3% Balance Sheet Total Cash13.30 Total Debt10.81 Current Ratio5.24 Debt/Equity1.13 Market Cap36B EBITBA Coverage18.8 Profitability Ratios ROE41.6% EPS Growth7.3% Tax Rate23.61%
CONFIDENTIAL Discounted Cash Flow Analysis We used the following assumptions to generate the weighted average cost of capital for GILD Beta: 0.45 Risk-free rate: 3.3% Cost of equity: 9.8% Cost of debt: 7.0% Conservative WACC: 8% Our Fair Value: $61 Morningstar DCF estimates yield a similar fair value of $57.14
CONFIDENTIAL Analyst Estimates
CONFIDENTIAL Catalysts The European Association for the Study of the Liver decides that it will disclose hepatitis C clinical data online on April 4 thwill disclose Earnings reports on April 18 th, announcement of the drug Quad Further clinical experimentation to verify the results of three clinical trials with Truvada, which suggest healthy people should take HIV drugs to prevent infection with the virus that causes AIDSsuggest healthy people should take HIV drugs The market for hepatitis C drugs is expected to soar to $16 billion in 2015 from $1.7 billion in 2011 in major commercial markets. Gilead has well positioned itself in the Hepatitis C drug market by acquiring Pharmasset
CONFIDENTIAL Risks 1.The public announcement of data from clinical studies evaluating GS-7977 in HCV-infected patients is likely to cause significant volatility in stock price. 2.A substantial amount of generated revenue is derived from the HIV/AIDS division of the company 3.Implementation of health care reform will detrimentally affect profits 4.Operations depend on compliance with complex FDA and comparable international regulations. 5.Industry is competitive and there will be increasing competition and pricing pressures in growing/attractive markets, such as HIV.
CONFIDENTIAL Conclusions Huge market overreaction in February to clinical trail data 1) Diversified, stable cashflow 2) Promising drug pipeline 3) Extremely attractive metrics In conclusion, GILD is a low beta stock that would be an excellent addition to the YSIG portfolio.