1. PSYC512: Research Methods PSYC512: Research Methods Lecture 3 Brian P. Dyre University of Idaho

2. PSYC512: Research Methods Lecture 3 Outline Overview of the Research Process Overview of the Research Process Searching the literature Searching the literature Reading the literature Reading the literature Epistemology and Scientific Explanation Epistemology and Scientific Explanation

3. PSYC512: Research Methods The Research Process 1. Develop a research idea and hypothesis 2. Develop idea into a testable hypothesis 3. Choose a research design ( Experimental, Correlational, Quasi-experimental) 4. Obtain subjects: sampling, ethical, and practical considerations (The first four steps form the basis of your research proposal for this class and a thesis proposal, should you decide to complete one) 5. Conduct the study 6. Analyze the results 7. Report your results (Conferences, Journals) 8. Repeat Steps 1-7… …forever…

4. PSYC512: Research Methods Searching the Literature Electronic Resources Electronic Resources The UI Library electronic databases The UI Library electronic databases Google Scholar (beta) Google Scholar (beta) Social Science Citation Index (SSCI, available online at WSU Library) Social Science Citation Index (SSCI, available online at WSU Library) Hardcopy Resources “the old traditional way” Hardcopy Resources “the old traditional way” Textbooks  identify seminal research papers (use SSCI to search forward in time for more recent works that were influenced) Textbooks  identify seminal research papers (use SSCI to search forward in time for more recent works that were influenced) Reference sections of papers  trace back in time to previous research that influenced the current work Reference sections of papers  trace back in time to previous research that influenced the current work

5. PSYC512: Research Methods Searching the Literature General Strategy General Strategy Initially, obtain a broad overview of a particular area by reading “review” papers or books and seminal works rather than tightly-focused empirical reports  helps to organize understanding and identify key issues Initially, obtain a broad overview of a particular area by reading “review” papers or books and seminal works rather than tightly-focused empirical reports  helps to organize understanding and identify key issues Once broad overview of a research area has been obtained, delve into more tightly-focused empirical reports  provides more “nuts and bolts” methodological information and data Once broad overview of a research area has been obtained, delve into more tightly-focused empirical reports  provides more “nuts and bolts” methodological information and data

6. PSYC512: Research Methods Organizing, Reading, and Most Importantly Remembering the Literature Never read passively! Always have a goal in mind (obtaining some particular piece or type of information) Never read passively! Always have a goal in mind (obtaining some particular piece or type of information) Observe your circadian rhythms for periods of peak alertness and take advantage of them. If possible, read something difficult to understand every day at your peak alertness times Observe your circadian rhythms for periods of peak alertness and take advantage of them. If possible, read something difficult to understand every day at your peak alertness times Never read without taking notes to include in your annotated bibliography Never read without taking notes to include in your annotated bibliography Plumb the reference section for further readings! Plumb the reference section for further readings!

7. PSYC512: Research Methods Writing an Annotated Bibliography As you read, create an outline of the general area of inquiry that is organized by important issues, empirical results, theoretical stances, hypotheses, and questions  helps to organize understanding and identify key issues As you read, create an outline of the general area of inquiry that is organized by important issues, empirical results, theoretical stances, hypotheses, and questions  helps to organize understanding and identify key issues In your outline, include entries for every paper you have found that contains the full citation, perhaps including the abstract (for the most relevant papers) and a hyper-link to the full text (if available electronically online or on a local disk). In your outline, include entries for every paper you have found that contains the full citation, perhaps including the abstract (for the most relevant papers) and a hyper-link to the full text (if available electronically online or on a local disk). Sometimes you may wish to include references to a particular paper in multiple places in your outline Sometimes you may wish to include references to a particular paper in multiple places in your outline Each citation should be followed by detailed notes of key issues raised by each paper (e.g., hypotheses and rationale, general method, most important results) and your own comments (relation of work to other research and your own research project, relative importance of work, follow-up questions Each citation should be followed by detailed notes of key issues raised by each paper (e.g., hypotheses and rationale, general method, most important results) and your own comments (relation of work to other research and your own research project, relative importance of work, follow-up questions

8. PSYC512: Research Methods Using Your Annotated Bibliography Think of your annotated bibliography as your “memory” of the research in your field of interest—update and refer to it often! Think of your annotated bibliography as your “memory” of the research in your field of interest—update and refer to it often! Revise the outline organization of your annotated bibliography whenever advances in your understanding of a particular field demand it. Revise the outline organization of your annotated bibliography whenever advances in your understanding of a particular field demand it. Try to fill “holes” in the knowledge represented by your bibliography by finding relevant articles. If an article cannot be found to fill a hole then you may have found a good idea for a thesis project! Try to fill “holes” in the knowledge represented by your bibliography by finding relevant articles. If an article cannot be found to fill a hole then you may have found a good idea for a thesis project! Use the outline structure of the annotated bibliography to help organize the paragraph flow of the introduction section of your proposal Use the outline structure of the annotated bibliography to help organize the paragraph flow of the introduction section of your proposal

9. PSYC512: Research Methods Epistemology From academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/virtual/glossary.htm From academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/virtual/glossary.htm academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/virtual/glossary.htm The study of what is meant by "knowledge". What does it mean to "know" something as opposed to merely having an opinion. This issue has been at the core of Western philosophy since before Socrates, since, until it has been answered, all other questions become unsolvable. The study of what is meant by "knowledge". What does it mean to "know" something as opposed to merely having an opinion. This issue has been at the core of Western philosophy since before Socrates, since, until it has been answered, all other questions become unsolvable.

10. PSYC512: Research Methods Methods of Obtaining Knowledge Peirce (1877) Peirce (1877) Authority (faith): a trusted authority tells you what is true of false Authority (faith): a trusted authority tells you what is true of false Tenacity (sticking your head in the sand): don’t consider or seek new knowledge, believe only what you already know Tenacity (sticking your head in the sand): don’t consider or seek new knowledge, believe only what you already know A priori (pragmatism): believe what seems obvious and reasonable based on casual observation and common sense A priori (pragmatism): believe what seems obvious and reasonable based on casual observation and common sense Scientific method Scientific method

11. PSYC512: Research Methods Features of Scientific Method Rational – based on logic Rational – based on logic Empirical – based on data Empirical – based on data Testable – rational theories and hypotheses are testable Testable – rational theories and hypotheses are testable Parsimonious – the simplest explanation is most likely true Parsimonious – the simplest explanation is most likely true General – theories should account for broad phenomena General – theories should account for broad phenomena Tentative – explanations are never proved, they may always be improved (skeptical) Tentative – explanations are never proved, they may always be improved (skeptical) Rigorously Evaluated – replicate, replicate, replicate! Rigorously Evaluated – replicate, replicate, replicate! Self-correcting – theories that are disproven are refined or abandoned Self-correcting – theories that are disproven are refined or abandoned

12. PSYC512: Research Methods What do theories do? What purpose do they serve? What do theories do? What purpose do they serve? Understanding Understanding Prediction Prediction Organizing and Interpreting Results Organizing and Interpreting Results Generating Research Generating Research What makes a theory a good theory? What makes a theory a good theory? Broad explanatory power Broad explanatory power Defines logical links between variables Defines logical links between variables Predicts novel events precisely enough to be tested (confirmed) Predicts novel events precisely enough to be tested (confirmed) Predicts non-events precisely enough to be tested (disconfirmed) Predicts non-events precisely enough to be tested (disconfirmed) Parsimony Parsimony Theories and Hypothesis Testing Theory Data InductionDeduction

13. PSYC512: Research Methods To Prove or Disprove, That is the Question… Conditional Reasoning and the logic of falsification (Popper) Conditional Reasoning and the logic of falsification (Popper) Theories Predict Data Theories Predict Data Confirmational Strategy: trying to prove a theory Confirmational Strategy: trying to prove a theory “If theory A is correct, “If theory A is correct, then I will observe pattern of data A” Disconfirmational Strategy Disconfirmational Strategy “If theory A is correct, “If theory A is correct, then I will not observe pattern of data B” These are statements of conditional reasoning These are statements of conditional reasoning

14. PSYC512: Research Methods To Prove or Disprove, That is the Question… Conditional Reasoning: The Propositional Calculus Conditional Reasoning: The Propositional Calculus Two premises and a conclusion Two premises and a conclusion Premise 1) If then Premise 1) If then Premise 2) Affirm/deny Premise 2) Affirm/deny Conclusion) Therefore Conclusion) Therefore Four Possibilities for Premise 2 Four Possibilities for Premise 2 Affirm AntecedentDeny Antecedent Affirm ConsequentDeny Consequent

15. PSYC512: Research Methods To Prove or Disprove, That is the Question… Confirmational Reasoning Confirmational Reasoning Premise 1 Premise 1 If then If then Premise 2; Conclusion Premise 2; Conclusion AA) theory A is correct; therefore data A will be observed (Valid, but pointless) DA) theory A is incorrect; therefore data A will not be observed (Invalid and pointless) AC) data A observed; therefore theory A is correct (Invalid, but often used) DC) data A not observed; therefore theory A is incorrect (valid, but only if observations are exhaustive—accepting the null)

16. PSYC512: Research Methods To Prove or Disprove, That is the Question… Disconfirmational Reasoning Disconfirmational Reasoning Premise 1 Premise 1 If then If then Premise 2; Conclusion Premise 2; Conclusion AA) theory A is correct; therefore data B will not be observed (Valid, but pointless) DA) theory A is incorrect; therefore data B will be observed (Invalid and pointless) AC) data B not observed; therefore theory A is correct (Invalid) DC) data B observed; therefore theory A is incorrect (valid, most scientifically useful!)

17. PSYC512: Research Methods Confirmation and Disconfirmation of Theories: Summary Confirmation (Poor) Confirmation (Poor) if theory correct then observation will occur if theory correct then observation will occur Observation occurs  Support, but not proof Observation occurs  Support, but not proof Observation does not occur  disproof? NO! Observation does not occur  disproof? NO! Disconfirmation (OK) Disconfirmation (OK) if theory correct then observation will not occur if theory correct then observation will not occur Observation does not occur  Support, but not proof Observation does not occur  Support, but not proof Observation does occur  disproof Observation does occur  disproof Strong Inference (BEST!) Strong Inference (BEST!) PROOF?

18. PSYC512: Research Methods Strong Inference (Platt, 1964) Science is fundamentally based on disconfirmation (Popper) Science is fundamentally based on disconfirmation (Popper) Theories are not evaluated in isolation, rather they compete with one another (relativism) Theories are not evaluated in isolation, rather they compete with one another (relativism) Critical Experiments – results will disconfirm one (or more) theory (theories) while confirming one or more alternative theories Critical Experiments – results will disconfirm one (or more) theory (theories) while confirming one or more alternative theories Disconfirmed theories are discarded (or revised) like logical branches pruned from the tree of understanding, in which only one branch represents truth Disconfirmed theories are discarded (or revised) like logical branches pruned from the tree of understanding, in which only one branch represents truth

19. PSYC512: Research Methods Next Time… Topic: More on Scientific Explanation, measurement scales and descriptive stats Topic: More on Scientific Explanation, measurement scales and descriptive stats Be sure to: Be sure to: Read the assigned readings (Howell chapters 1 & 2) Read the assigned readings (Howell chapters 1 & 2) Identify a research area for your in-class proposal Identify a research area for your in-class proposal Start searching and reading the scientific literature for your proposal Start searching and reading the scientific literature for your proposal