1. SCENARIO PROCESS for Put here your name, details of the workshop, etc. Designed by Michael Braito Marianne Penker KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION

2. participatory process Outline 1.Sustainable development by Knowledge Integration 2.Thinking of tomorrow – Why and how? 3.Thinking of tomorrow – Scenario Planning Theoretical introduction 4.The Scenario Process (Step 1 – 5) Step 1: Defining the project boundaries Step 2: Identifying the driving forces Step 3: Analysing the driving forces Step 4: Scenario generation Step 5: Scenario transfer 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 2

3. 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 3 Thinking of tomorrow for a sustainable development! The delegates at the RIO+20 acknowledged the importance of strengthening transdisciplinary cooperation in order to enhance sustainable development.

4. 1.Each discipline is important! 2.Concentrating on one subject is failing in seeing other aspects. 3.Learning from each other … 4.… to recognize the big picture. Why is this so crucial for sustainable development? Sustainable development can only be reached if human beings work together. Sustainable development can only be reached if human beings work together. Decisions in the field of sustainable development have to be taken in the context of uncertain and incomplete knowledge. A systematic integration of a range of research-informed judgments, expertise from different disciplines and experience- based knowledge is often the best way forward. KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 4

5. Methods of Knowledge Integration “In interdisciplinary research and transdisciplinary knowledge integration, the focus of the dialogue process is on a research question and the process aims to enable the formation of a combined judgment between the participants, with that judgment being informed by the best research evidence” (McDonald et al. 2009). Several methods for dialogue/participatory processes exist (see McDonald et al. 2009), for instance: – Citizens’ jury, – Conference, – Delphi technique, – Open space technology, – Scenario Planning (THINKING OF TOMORROW). 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 5

6. Thinking of Tomorrow WHY and HOW!?

7. The complexity of today and tomorrow 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 7 Our world, our socio-economic system is changing rapidly and unpredictable. A number of issues follow their own future path, but at the same time, they interact not only with each other but with any number of … macro- economic political rural etc. ecological techno- logical social regulatory regional

8. The problem of limited points of views To analyse complex systems we reduce the complexity. In doing this, we tend to stop gathering detail and select one path forward that seems the most likely one. 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 8 macro- economic political rural ecological techno- logical social regulatory regional etc. These limited points of views may become a straitjacket, not allowing us to see the big picture.

9. Thinking of tomorrow – Why and How? “A major focus is on how the future might evolve from today’s point- in-time to the horizon year of the scenario – say 15-20 years hence. Scenario thinking analyses the relationships between: the critical uncertainties (as they resolve themselves); important predetermined trends (such as demographics), and the behaviour of actors who have a stake in the particular future (who tend to act to preserve and enhance their own interests)” (Wright and Cairns 2011, 9). 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 9

10. Knowledge Integration – dealing with unknowns/uncertainties Scenario planning combines possibilities to form a manageable set of scenarios. It helps “to sketch a broad spectrum of possible developments options” (Penker and Wytrzens 2005). 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 10

11. Knowledge Integration (explicit scientific knowledge and implicit local knowledge) Following the approach of ‘intuitive logics ’ (Jungermann and Thuring 1987) See the sense of complexity and ambiguity in terms of possibility and plausibility. Exploring the interrelationships between multiple factors in terms of cause/effect and chronology Realise that the possibilities are not unlimited. AIMS of ‘scenario thinking’ 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 11

12. AIM of System Intervention Initiate a process of understanding (future is unpredictable and unknown). Highlight and understand possibilities for action (despite partial uncertainty). Enhance openness for new ways instead of moving always on the worn-out paths. 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 12

13. Thinking of Tomorrow HOW? Scenario Planning

14. How to use scenarios Scenarios can fulfill several and different functions: explorative and knowledge function, communication function, aim building function, and decision making and strategy function. The PROCESS is as important as the OUTCOME! 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 14

15. The scenario funnel Scenario thinking gives you the opportunity to set intervention today, because it shows you what will have a major impact in the future. 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 15

16. Scenario techniques Trend scenariobased on driving forces Effect Analysis Consistency Analysis Cross-Impact- Analysis Intuitive Logics Normativ- narrative Scenarios Systemic - formalised Creative-narrative Extrapolation of business as usual Trend-Impact- Analyses Extrapolation of business as usual Trend-Impact- Analyses 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 16

17. The Scenario Process

18. The process of scenario planning 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 18

19. The Scenario Process STEP 1 Defining the project boundaries

20. Project boundaries of the exemplary scenario project Set the objectives. Define boundaries and establish focus. The objectives for the scenario planning should include the following: 1.Thematic framework, 2.Time horizon for the scenarios, 3.Geographical scope of the scenarios, 4.Stakeholder to be addressed by the project, 5.Unavoidable constraints on future plans, and 6.Definition and deadline for deliverables. 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 20

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22. The Scenario Process STEP 2 Identifying the driving forces

23. What are ‘driving forces’? Driving forces are attributes of a system which are most relevant at the present and cause changes in the system state over time (e.g. social, economic, environmental, political, and technological). Main key factors facing the research topic Changes in society, politics, technology etc. are often the symptoms of more fundamental transformations. Driving forces are indicating change, but should not indicate direction or dimension. 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 23

24. Methods to identify driving forces I Identification of a MAXIMUM of 10-15 driving forces Different methods exist: Systemic picture (all together or as a “World Café”) Brainstorming/Brainwriting by using cards etc. 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 24

25. Methods to identify driving forces II Systemic picture (all together or as a “World Café”) 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 25

26. Methods to identify driving forces III Brainstorming/Brainwriting by using cards 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 26

27. Feedback Integrate scientific knowledge with participants’ knowledge Literature research Empirical research – Field work – Interviews – Delphi Method – etc. 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 27

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29. The Scenario Process STEP 3 Analysing the driving forces

30. Analysis of the driving forces and filtering 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 30

31. Identify the most relevant driving forces RANKING What is the magnitude of the impact of these driving forces on the development of the future of the system? 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 31

32. The ‘relevance/uncertainty’ matrix 4 dimension matrix to narrow the list of driving forces to the most relevant for differentiating scenarios. We may be highly certain that something will happen (e.g. climate change) but highly uncertain as to what impact it may have (increasing storm activity, drought, flood? 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 32

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34. The Scenario Process STEP 4 Scenario generation

35. Scenario Generation I Select the two factors (A and B) that combine the greatest perceived relevance on the core issue with the greatest uncertainty as to what their impact will be. 4 dimensions matrix 4 scenarios Factor A Factor B 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 35

36. Scenario Generation II Factor A Factor B Scenario 2 Factor A Factor B Scenario 2 Factor A Factor B Scenarios should be: 1.Plausible 2.Distinctive 3.Consistent 4.Relevant 5.Creative 6.Challenging (Maack 2001, 73) 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 36

37. Story telling Add narratives to provide ‘rich descriptions’ of four possible and plausible futures (e.g. “one day of Mister X in the year 20xx”). Think carefully and deeply about sense making, logic, plausibility and possibility of what you are writing. 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 37

38. Story telling geographical maps timelines story hands story seeds storyboards journeys (A to B; A to B to A) cumulative block graphs emotions graphs story mountains 1.Creative title (highlighting the central message 2.Brief summation that explains the title and sums up the elements of the story 3.Smooth narratives that are easy to read and understand What is Mr. X on the 1st May 2030 doing? How does the world look like? 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 38

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40. The Scenario Process STEP 5 Scenario transfer

41. Scenario Transfer I The final stage of the Scenario Process is the dissemination of the message and its implementation on the ground. Backcasting Focuses on finding options that satisfy long-term targets (Börjes et. al. 2005) What activities/measures have to be taken to reach the preferred scenario? 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 41

42. Scenario Transfer II Scenario 1 Scenario 4 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 What are the implications of this world? What is the best strategy for dealing with this situation? What are the major opportunities and threats in this scenario? Which scenario do we prefer? 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 42

43. Enjoy your scenario process

44. References Bammer, G., 2006. Integration and Implementation Sciences: Building a New Specialisation. In Perez, P. and Batten, D. (eds.). Complex Science for a Complex World. Australia: ANU E Press, The Australian National University Australia. 95-107. Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.H., Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G., 2005. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques. Stockholm: US AB Royal Institute of Technology. Jungermann, H. and Thuring, M., 1987. The use of mental models for generating scenarios. In Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (eds.), Judgmental Forecasting. London: Wiley. Maack, J., 2001. Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers. McDonald, D., Bammer, G. and Deane, P., 2009. Research Integration using dialogue methods. Australia: ANU E Press, The Australian National University Australia. Penker, M. and Wytrzens, H.K., 2005. Scenario for the Austrian food chain in 2020 and its landscape impacts. Landscape and Urban Planning. 71. 175-189. Wright, G. and Cairns, G., 2011. Scenario Thinking: Practical approaches to the future. London, Palgrave. 10.06.2015 by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker 44

45. Michael Braito Expertise Environmental economics and environmental policy Sustainable development Rural development Optimisation and valuation of managerial processes Analysis and economic valuation of societal processes Institute for Sustainable Economic Development Department of Economics and Social Sciences BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Feistmantelstr. 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria http://www.wiso.boku.ac.at/2797.html?&L=1 Marianne Penker Expertise Rural development Implementation Research Property Rights Rural Governance Landscape Governance Conservation and Environmental Policy