1. Water Research in the SECC Puneet Srivastava Auburn University

2. Recent Research Activities Extension, Assessment, and Engagement Activities including those in support of NIDIS SEWaterClimate.org Weather Climate Change Week 1 Week 2Week 3Week 4 Seasonal- Interannual Decadal Funding provided by the RISA program is heavily leveraged by funding from other sources (NASA, NIDIS, NOAA-SARP, USDA, etc.)

3. The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Improves Reference ET (ETo) Forecasts in the SE USA All forecast skill were generally positive for up to lead day 7 throughout the year, with higher skill in cooler months compared to warmer months. Tian, D. and C.J. Martinez. 2014. Published in Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15(3): 1152-1165. Evaluated daily ETo forecasts using the GEFS reforecasts in the SE US and to incorporate the ETo forecasts into irrigation scheduling to explore the usefulness of the forecasts for water management. ETo was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation, and ensemble forecasts were downscaled and bias corrected using a forecast analog approach.

4. Seasonal Prediction of Regional Reference Evapotranspiration Based on Climate Forecast System Version 2 The CFSv2-based ETo forecasts showed higher predictability in cold seasons than in warm seasons. Tian, D., C.J. Martinez, and W.D. Graham. 2014. Published in Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15(3): 1166-1188. The 12-km ETo forecasts were produced by downscaling coarse-scale ETo forecasts from the CFSv2 retrospective forecast archive and by downscaling CFSv2 maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean), solar radiation (Rs), and wind speed (Wind) individually and calculating ETo using those downscaled variables. MSESS BSS BelowBSS NearBSS Above BSS BelowBSS NearBSS Above Lead Time

5. Improved Municipal Water Demand Forecasts for Tampa Bay Water o Tian, D., Martinez, C.J. and T. Asefa. Improving short-term urban water demand forecasts using forecast analogs of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Submitted to Journal of Hydrology. Evaluation of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in the SE USA o Tian, D., Martinez, C.J., Graham, W.D., and S. Hwang. 2014. Statistical downscaling of multi-model forecasts for seasonal precipitation and surface temperature over the southeastern USA. Journal of Climate, 27(22): 8384- 8411. Probability of Exceedance Streamflow Forecasts for Tampa Bay Water o Risko, S.L. and C.J. Martinez. 2014. Forecasts of seasonal streamflow in west- central Florida using multiple climate predictors. Journal of Hydrology, 519A: 1130-1140. Martinez – Water Research

6. Forecast Streamflows in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions  Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) from the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) in the basin is used to develop a streamflow forecasting tool  Evaluate approaches (e.g. analog, ENSO trend, combined analog) to streamflow forecasting  A variety of stakeholders (boating groups, state regulatory agencies, dam operators, etc.) are interested in streamflow forecasts. P. Srivastava and G. Mirhosseini

7. ENSO Impacts on Groundwater Levels in the Lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin Objectives Quantify the effect of ENSO-induced climate variability on groundwater levels under different overburden conditions Quantify how pumping for irrigation exacerbates the effect of La Nina on groundwater levels, and Develop procedure for forecasting groundwater levels using ENSO forecasts. Objectives Quantify the effect of ENSO-induced climate variability on groundwater levels under different overburden conditions Quantify how pumping for irrigation exacerbates the effect of La Nina on groundwater levels, and Develop procedure for forecasting groundwater levels using ENSO forecasts. Subhasis Mitra, Sarmistha Singh, and Puneet Srivastava

8. Effects of Irrigation Pumpage During droughts on Groundwater Levels and Groundwater Budget Components MODular Finite Element Model (MODFE) MODFE is used to study the effects of irrigation on groundwater levels and groundwater budget components Upper Floridan Aquifer System

9. Climate variability impacts on low stream flows in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin  Studying individual and coupled impacts of  El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)  North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)  Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)  Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)  Quantify the effect of groundwater pumpage on stream-aquifer flow and federally- protected species residing in the lower ACF river basin using the Modular Finite Element (MODFE) groundwater model A B C D E F

10. What do climate projections say about future droughts in Alabama?  The objective of the study is to quantify how frequency, severity and spatial extent of droughts is expected to change in Alabama.  Climate projections are used from three GCMs: Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and Community Climate System Model (CCSM)  Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) have been computed  Palmer’s Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Self-calibrating Palmer’s Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) will be computed as well. Nischal Mishra and Puneet Srivastava

11. Effect of Climate Change on Rainfall and Runoff Erosivity in the Southeast US Erosivity  Erosive force of precipitation events (MJmm/h/ha/yr)  Defined by how hard it rains (intensity) and how much it rains (amount)  Calculated using long term precipitation data  Used in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE2) mathematical model  Datasets Used  COAPS Land Atmosphere Regional Ensemble Climate Change Experiment for the South East US at 10 km (CLAREnCE10) for the current (1968-2000) and future climate (2038-2070). (Source: FSU)  Gridded observed precipitation data at 12km resolution from 1949-2010. (Source: Ed Mauer)  Station precipitation data (Source: NOAA) Nafiul Islam and Puneet Srivastava

12. http://appliedsciences.nasa.gov/pdf/2012AnnualReport_508.pdfhttp://appliedsciences.nasa.gov/pdf/2012AnnualReport_508.pdf; http://gridssat.nsstc.uah.edu/http://gridssat.nsstc.uah.edu/ Daily assessment of water stress on corn - GriDSSAT  GriDSSAT uses NASA LIS data and satellite-derived insolation  Being used to inform state-level policy  Reported in the NASA 2012 annual report  Water stress on other crops (e.g., soybeans, cotton, and peanuts) are being incorporated in GriDSSAT Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy

13. Center Pivot Irrigation Inventory and Demand Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy  As part of Alabama’s efforts to both promote irrigation AND protect our water resources; detailed information about water use (and location) is a must.  UAH’s Earth Systems Science Center (ESSC) embarked on a center pivot survey as part of a larger effort to identify where and how much water is being used in the state.

14. Center Pivot Irrigation Inventory and Demand Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy 2013 Center pivot acreage results aggregated by county Center pivot acreage over time (2006, 2009, 2011 & 2013 data surveys)

15. Analysis Using Center Pivot Survey Data Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy Center pivot irrigation demand based on 50-year crop model results Center pivot acreage as a percentage of total HUC-12 watershed acreage

16. Products & Tools Web portals Assessment & Evaluation Networks Fact Sheets, Presentations SEWaterClimate.org ENGAGEMENT National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Engagement and Assessment

18. …to increase the regional relevance and usability of climate and sea level rise models for water suppliers and resources managers in Florida This work is partially funded under a grant from the Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office. Learning NetworkActionable Science  Building Community  Shared Interests  Building Identity  Managing Diversity  Sustainability  Rigorous Science  User Perspective  Varied Contexts  Communicating Science Growing strong -3 years—10 workshops--25 participants–2 funded projects- proposals-papers-new knowledge-searchable website FloridaWCA.orgFloridaWCA.org Partners 6 Water Utilities 4 Universities 3 Water Mgt Districts Local governments Public

19. SEWaterClimate.org

20.  Developed by NCSU  Displays present and past water conditions over different geographic areas  Displays stream flows, precipitation, groundwater  Includes radar estimates of rainfall over specified time periods Data Display Tool

21.  Developed by NCSU Daily past evaporation data and historical monthly evaporation

22.  Developed by NCSU Radar-based Drought Monitoring Using methods developed at Texas A&M, we’re building tools using NWS weather radar data to provide very local estimates of drought severity (~5km) Support for this effort is provided by USDA. Data will be compared to field assessments to associate local impacts of drought with the radar-based indices of drought severity.

23. Seasonal Forecast Downscaling Screenshots from Experimental Seasonal Precipitation Outlook Pages http://omega.meas.ncsu.edu/climate /SFXmap.php Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

24.  Continue to pursue applied research that help reduce climate risks for water stakeholders  Initiate research activities that utilize intra-seasonal (week 3 and week 4) forecasts being developed by the Climate Prediction Center  Conduct integrated regional assessment of climate change impacts on water resources  Continue to develop products, tools, information sheets, etc. to keep stakeholders informed and engaged; periodically conduct stakeholder assessment to identify needs  Fully develop and deploy SEWaterClimate.org  Continue to assist with (and expand) NIDIS activities in the Southeast Future Directions