1. PUBLIC FINANCE AND URBAN GROWTH “THE CASE FOR A NATIONAL URBAN POLICY FOR ZAMBIA” Presentation to the IGC Cities Research Conference: 21 st -22 nd May, 2015 Held at the London School of Economics Meembo Nchimunya Changula Principal Planner - Forward Planning Department of Physical Planner – Forward and Housing Ministry of Local Government and Housing Lusaka, Zambia

2. URBANISATION IN ZAMBIA One of most urbanised countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Historical drivers: Discovery of minerals at turn of 20th century in Copperbelt Province  South-North urban development axis (line of rail) Urbanisation drivers: rural-urban migration and natural population growth

3. URBANISATION IN ZAMBIA 39% by 2010; 50% by 2030; 60% by 2050. Absolute numbers:5 times growth 2010 to 2050. Source: Ministry of Local Government and Housing, NUP Zambia Discussion Paper, 2014

4. HISTORIC URBAN GROWTH Level in Hierarchy Main urban centres of Zambia Population in 1990 Population in 2000 Population in 2010 % change 2000 - 2010 Level 1 (>1,000,000) Lusaka769,3531,084,7031,747,152 61.1% Level 2 (200,000- 500,000) Kitwe...363,734501,360 37.8% Ndola329,228374,757451,246 20.4% Level 3 (100,000- 200,000) Kabwe154,318176,758202,360 14.5% Chingola142,383147,448185,246 25.6% Mufulira123,936122,336151,309 23.7% Livingstone (Maramba) 76,87597,488134,349 37.8% Luanshya118,143115,579130,076 12.5% Chipata52,21373,110116,627 59.5% Kasama47,65374,243101,845 37.2% Level 4 (50,000- 100,000) Solwezi23,43538,12190,856 138.3% Mansa37,88241,05978,153 90.3% Chililabombwe48,05554,50477,818 42.8% Kafue43,80145,89072,166 57.3% Mazabuka24,59647,14871,700 52.1% Mongu29,30244,31052,324 18.1% Kalulushi31,474...51,863 N.A. Choma30,14340,40551,842 28.3% Kapiri Mposhi13,54027,21944,783 64.5%

5. HISTORIC URBAN GROWTH

7. Greatest Historic Increase In Population Main urban centres of Zambia Population in 2000Population in 2010Actual Increase Lusaka1,084,7031,747,152662,449 Kitwe363,734501,360137,626 Ndola374,757451,24676,489 Solwezi38,12190,85652,735 Chipata73,110116,62743,517 Chingola147,448185,24637,798 Mansa41,05978,15337,094 Livingstone (Maramba)97,488134,34936,861 Nakonde9,33241,83632,504 Mufulira122,336151,30928,973 Kasama74,243101,84527,602 Kafue45,89072,16626,276 Kabwe176,758202,36025,602 Mazabuka47,14871,70024,552 Chililabombwe54,50477,81823,314 Kalulushi52,80076,01523,215 Mpulungu7,48829,10321,615 Kapiri Mposhi27,21944,78317,564 Mwense3,81821,137 17,319 Nchelenge/Kashikishi20,70936,89416,185

8. Fastest Historic Rate Of Increase Urban Centre% change 2000 and 2010 Mwense 453.6% Nakonde348.31% Mpulungu288.7% Solwezi138.30% Katete 105.7% Petauke103.4% Mansa90.30% Nchelenge/Kashikishi78.2% Kapiri Mposhi64.50% Monze61.57% Lusaka61.10% Chipata59.50% Kafue57.30% Mpika53.6% Mazabuka52.10% Kalulushi44.0% Chililabombwe42.80% Mbala 41.8% Kitwe37.80% Livingstone (Maramba)37.80%

9. Future Urban Growth Main urban centres of Zambia Population in 2010 Estimated Population 2015 Estimated Population 2025 Estimated Population 2035 Lusaka1,747,1522,281,7023,285,3294,560,560 Kitwe501,360627,130871,5601,190,534 Ndola451,246530,129646,417777,276 Kabwe202,360221,077253,429286,418 Chingola185,246259,981331,747417,590 Mufulira151,309176,929208,330238,112 Livingstone134,349159,251214,579280,508 Luanshya130,076147,310163,775182,773 Chipata116,627146,088224,086331,642 Kasama101,845120,284162,640216,620 Solwezi90,856133,200238,623354,546 Mansa78,153105,106176,538272,307 Chililabombwe77,81898,843140,927196,673 Kalulushi76,01596,787137,811191,006 Kafue72,16693,110131,490178,793 Mazabuka71,70088,763125,801166,493 Mongu52,32456,68266,04478,081 Choma51,84259,60075,27692,465 Kapiri Mposhi44,78358,26094,749150,129 Nakonde41,83656,43295,888153,376

10. Future Urban Growth - Fastest Growing Main urban centres of Zambia Population in 2010 Estimated Population 2035 % change between 2010 and 2035 Mumbwa20,390153,368652.17% Mpulungu29,103215,151 639.27% Mwense21,137150,463611.85% Solwezi90,856354,546 290.23% Nchelenge/Kashikishi36,894138,782 276.16% Nakonde41,836153,376 266.61% Petauke29,728104,225 250.60% Mansa78,153272,307 248.43% Mpika39,724135,472 241.03% Kapiri Mposhi44,783150,129 235.24% Chipata116,627331,642 184.36% Monze39,752112,099 182.00% Lusaka1,747,1524,560,560 161.03% Chililabombwe77,818196,673 152.73% Kalulushi76,015191,006 151.27% Kafue72,166178,793 147.75% Kitwe501,3601,190,534 137.46% Mazabuka71,700166,493 132.21% Chingola185,246417,590 125.42% Kasama101,845216,620 112.70% Livingstone (Maramba)134,349280,508 108.79%

11. Ten Biggest Cities 2010 and 2035 Main urban centres of Zambia Ranking in 2010 Lusaka1 Kitwe2 Ndola3 Kabwe4 Chingola5 Mufulira6 Livingstone7 Luanshya8 Chipata9 Kasama10 Main urban centres of Zambia Ranking in 2035 Lusaka1 Kitwe2 Ndola3 Chingola4 Solwezi5 Chipata6 Kabwe7 Livingstone 8 Mansa9 Mufulira10

12. Future Urban Growth – Change In Rank Size Number in 2010 Number in 2035 Note 1,000,000 plus12 Lusaka 4.56 million and Kitwe 1.19 million 500,000 - 999,00011 400,000 - 499,99911 300,000 - 399,99902 200,000 - 299,99916 100,000 - 199,999613 Total over 100,0001025

13. URBANISATION CHALLENGES Socio-economic challenges  Attractive opportunities in cities/towns resulting in strong migration and fast urban growth  Poverty and high living costs in cities compared to rural areas Spatial and environmental challenges  Strong migration towards North - South corridor  City boundary encroachment on agricultural and customary land  Growing city expansion  Proliferation of informal settlements  Environmental degradation  Inefficient urban planning practices Policy, legal and institutional challenges  Obsolete urban legislation and weak regulatory framework  Poor coordination & low institutional capacity

14. WHAT IS A NATIONAL URBAN POLICY? National Urban Policy is meant to be a deliberate government-led process of coordinating and rallying various actors for establishing a shared vision for the desired urbanisation within 20-30 years horizon or more.

15. NEED FOR NATIONAL URBAN POLICY  Zambian cities account for more than 80% of GDP  By ensuring density, diversity and innovation, cities can boost economic activities.  By sharing the same infrastructure and services, cities can maximise cost-effectiveness  NUP can support poverty reduction, spatial planning, land management, housing, basic and social services, infrastructural development and coordination of large- scale investments  NUP is not an anti-rural policy, thriving towns and cities will assist rural development  More functional importance needs to be provided to urban centres located in under-developed regions.  The NUP can promote principles of good urbanism

16. URBANISATION AND CITY ECONOMY “There is a direct link between urban growth and city economy”

17. NUP OBJECTIVES Avoid future human-made and environmental disasters from unplanned rapid urban population and physical growth. Create jobs to lift people out of poverty by harnessing agglomeration advantages of concentrated economic activity. Deliver more cost-effective public services and infrastructure. Strengthen municipal institutions to plan and manage urban growth. Develop a more functional national urban system that contributes to rural development and transformation.

18. DEVELOPMENT OF NATIONAL URBAN POLICY RESULT s Identification of urban development priorities 1. Guidance on the future development priorities 2. Better coordination and guidance of actions 3. Increased and more coordinated investments priorities 4.

19. KEY NUP STAGES

20. CONCLUSION The rate of urbanisation, especially in developing countries will continue to increase at almost exponential rates. Urbanisation should be viewed as an opportunity rather than a challenge - urban growth presents greater economic opportunities for cities and their residents. The focus for urban policy makers should be on harnessing economic opportunity and promoting sustainable urban growth through the right planning frameworks and policies.