1. State of College Admission 2011 David A. Hawkins Director of Public Policy and Research NACAC Presented November 10, 2011 CACNY Meeting, New York

2. Components of Report Counseling Trends Survey Admission Trends Survey External Data –US Department of Education IPEDS Data –US Census Bureau –College Board Annual Survey –Other Education Organizations

3. Chapter 1: The Flow of Students Number of HS Grads Peaked at 3.33 Million for 2008–09 –3.28 Million in 2010–11 Wide Variations by State and Region; Race/Ethnicity; Age Total College Enrollment Will Increase At Least Through 2020

4. Projected Percentage Change in Public High School Graduates, by State: 2007–08 to 2020–21 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2020. (2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Figure 8).

5. Actual and Projected Numbers of Public High School Graduates, by Region: School Years 2002–03, 2007–08, and 2020–21 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2020. (2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 14).

6. Actual and Projected Numbers of Public High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity: School Years 2002–03, 2007–08, and 2020–21 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2020. (2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 13).

7. Actual and Projected Enrollment in All Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions, by Race/Ethnicity: Fall 1999, Fall 2009, and Fall 2020 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2020. (2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 29).

8. Actual and Projected Enrollment in All Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions, by Age: Fall 1999, Fall 2009, and Fall 2020 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2020. (2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 21).

9. Chapter 2. Applications and Selectivity Applications Per Student Continues to Increase Nearly Three-Quarters of Colleges Report Application Increases Average Acceptance Rate Down Slightly

10. Percentage of Students Submitting Three or More and Seven or More Applications: 1990 to 2010 SOURCES: Pryor, J.H., Hurtado, S., Saenz, V.B., Santos, J.L., and Korn, W.S. (2007). The American Freshman: Forty Year Trends, 1966–2006. Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA. Data from 2007 – 2010 are from annual editions of The American Freshman: National Norms reports also published by the Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA.

11. Percentage of Colleges Reporting Change from the Previous Year in Number of Applications for Fall Admission: 1996 to 2010 Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

12. Mean Selectivity and Yield: Fall 2010 SelectivityYield Total65.540.9 By Control Public 67.742.1 Private 64.340.4 SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2010-11). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

13. Applications and Enrollment By Selectivity National Share of Institutions Average Applications Per Institution National Share of Applications National Share of FT, FY Students Enrolled Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% 19.8%8,74534.7%20.3% 50 to 70% 37.15,13938.340.5 71 to 85% 28.43,73821.328.5 More than 85% 14.81,9185.710.7 SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2009-10). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

14. Chapter 3. Admission Strategies Decrease in Early Decision Apps and Admits – Only 38 Percent Reported Increases in ED Apps – 36 Percent Reported Increases in ED Admits Early Action Activity Holds – 72 Percent Reported Increases in EA Apps – 68 Percent Reported Increases in EA Admits More Colleges Use Wait Lists; Admission Chances Low – 48 Percent Used Wait List, Up From 39 Percent in 2009 – 28 Percent Admitted, Down from 34 Percent in 2009

15. Early DecisionEarly ActionWait List Total 21.6%30.4%47.7% Control Public 7.124.342.9 Private 26.332.449.3 Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 63.329.289.8 50 to 70% 11.632.843.5 71 to 85% 15.329.434.1 More than 85% 0.026.123.9 Yield Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students 26.442.957.5 30 to 45% 18.518.940.2 46 to 60% 5.717.125.7 More than 60% 35.728.650.0 Percentage of Colleges Using Early Decision, Early Action, and Wait Lists: Fall 2010 NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell). SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

16. Mean Mean percentage of all applications received at ED colleges through Early Decision12.4% Mean percentage of Early Decision applications accepted (ED selectivity rate)57.3 Mean overall selectivity rate for institutions with Early Decision49.8 Mean percentage of admitted ED students who enrolled (ED yield rate)86.5 Mean overall yield rate at ED colleges34.4 Key Statistics for Early Decision Colleges: Fall 2010 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends, 2010..

17. Gap In Acceptance Rate Between ED Admits and All Admits at ED Colleges 2007200820092010 ED selectivity rate65%67%70%57% Overall selectivity rate at ED colleges 53%54% 55%50% Gap (in percentage points1213 157 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2007 to 2010.

18. SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010. Mean Mean percentage of all applications received at EA colleges through Early Action43.7% Mean percentage of Early Action applications accepted (EA selectivity rate)66.3 Mean overall selectivity rate for institutions with Early Action66.9 Mean percentage of admitted EA students who enrolled (EA yield rate)32.8 Mean overall yield rate at EA colleges30.2 Key Statistics for Early Action Colleges: Fall 2010

19. Mean Percentage of Students Admitted off the Wait List: Fall 2010 Mean Percent Admitted Total 28.0% Control Public 34.7 Private 26.2 Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 11.1 50 to 70% 34.2 71 to 85% 35.1 More than 85% 55.3 Yield Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students 25.9 30 to 45% 27.3 46 to 60% 43.5 More than 60% 18.6 NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell). SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

20. Chapter 4. Factors in the Admission Decision Top Factors Unchanged –Grades in College Prep Courses –Strength of Curriculum –Test Scores –Overall GPA

21. Factor Considerable importance Moderate importance Limited importanceNo importance Grades in college prep courses83.4%12.3%2.7%1.6% Strength of curriculum65.725.74.73.9 Admission test scores (SAT, ACT)59.329.47.04.3 Grades in all courses46.242.110.21.6 Essay or writing sample26.633.022.917.6 Student’s demonstrated interest23.030.926.619.5 Class rank21.837.225.915.0 Counselor recommendation19.445.023.112.4 Teacher recommendation19.044.224.512.3 Subject test scores (AP, IB)9.632.432.625.3 Interview9.222.733.035.2 Extracurricular activities7.442.335.115.2 Portfolio5.912.932.948.2 SAT II scores5.311.824.958.0 State graduation exam scores4.214.028.553.4 Work1.920.347.230.6 Percentage of Colleges Attributing Different Levels of Importance to Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2010 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

22. Factors Showing Most Change in “Considerable Importance” Rating: 1993 to 2010 Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

23. Factors by Institutional Characteristics Public vs. Private –Private: essay, interview, counselor and teacher recommendations, extracurricular activities, SAT II scores, the portfolio, demonstrated interest, and work –Public: admission test scores Enrollment Size –Smaller: essay, interview, counselor and teacher recommendations, demonstrated interest, state grad. exams –Larger: strength of curriculum, admission test scores Selectivity –More Selective: strength of curriculum, grades in college prep courses, essay, class rank, teacher and counselor recommendations, extracurricular activities, work, portfolios, subject test scores, and SAT II scores

24. Considerable importance Moderate importance Limited importanceNo importance Race/ethnicity5.123.620.550.8 First-generation status 4.524.526.344.7 High school attended 4.526.831.137.7 State or county of residence 3.716.026.853.4 Gender4.110.221.164.6 Alumni relations3.122.434.939.6 Ability to pay1.99.616.472.1 Percentage of Colleges Attributing Importance to the Influence of Student Characteristics on the Evaluation of Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2010 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

25. Chapter 5. College Counseling In High Schools Student-to-Counselor Ratios Time Spent on College Counseling

26. Students Per Counselor by School Characteristics Students Per Counselor Students Per College Counselor Total 272333 Control Public 285338 Private 215310 Enrollment Fewer than 500 218247 500 to 999 277353 1,000 to 1,499 279335 1,500 to 1,999 297390 2,000 or more 425540 FRPL 0 to 25 percent 272320 26 to 50 percent 287327 51 to 75 percent 301402 76 to 100 percent 237309 SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2010.

27. Percentage of Time on College Counseling Private Schools Public Schools SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2010.

28. Chapter 6. The Admission Office Applications Per Admission Officer Cost to Recruit

29. Applications Per Admission Officer Applications per admission officer Total 527 Control Public 981 Private 402 Enrollment Fewer than 3,000 324 3,000 to 9,999 699 10,000 or more 1,219 Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 809 50 to 70% 595 71 to 85% 426 More than 85% 297 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

30. Cost-to-Recruit ApplicantAdmittedEnrolled Total $585.29$805.80$2,407.73 Control Public 348.73449.22987.01 Private 690.99965.123,042.52 Enrollment Fewer than 3,000 806.701,059.743,151.96 3,000 to 9,999 422.39649.892,015.74 10,000 or more 208.36349.69906.71 Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 464.48832.002,259.02 50 to 70% 386.76616.991,954.84 71 to 85% 579.98853.682,566.80 More than 85% 823.13891.622,663.53 Yield Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students 533.22693.612,765.83 30 to 45% 542.99764.692,055.09 46 to 60% 677.29915.012,448.37 More than 60% 1,049.261,711.242,552.39 NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell). SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

31. We Welcome Your Input David Hawkins dhawkins@nacacnet.org 703-299-6809