1. Apple outlook 2011 Philippe Binard World Apple and Pear Association ( WAPA ) Freshfel Europe

2. World Apple and Pear Association ( WAPA) WAPA ( 2001 ) = world umbrella organisation for the apple and pear producing countries = global forum of discussion for issues affecting apple and pear production and trading Incorporating the 18 leading apple and pear producing countries around the world both in the Northern Hemisphere (Europe + USA) and Southern Hemisphere Governance : rotating presidency and secretariat – President: Kevin Moffitt (USA) – Vice-President: Peter Beaven (New Zealand) – Immediate Past President: Alessandro Dalpiaz (Italy) – Brussels based secretariat

3. WAPA : mission & achievements Improve transparency by facilitating exchange of information on production and trade of apple & pear Platform for dissemination of sound science relating to apples and pears ( nutrition,health benefit, organoleptic,... ) Facilitate internationally the market position of apples and pears by exchanging best practice on promotion/communication www.wapa-association.org

4. APPLE MARKET REVIEW 2010/2011

5. Market Review 2010/2011 Prognosfruit forecast – 35 th edition – cooperation with 21 organizations & WAPA-AMI support – August forecast + update in September & December – August Y+1 = consolidation/validation => great accuracy of figures ( 1% variation ) 2010 : one of the lowest apple crop of the decade at 9.6 Mln T, combined with the lowest pear crop ( 2.2 Mln T )

6. Market Review 2010/2011 Main parameters of the season ( volume ) : – Late start – No NH stock nor SH overlap – Increasing demand in Eastern Europe ( low crop in Poland ) and strong demand in Russia ( total import = 1.2 Mln T) – Small imports volume from SH in the EU( ca 570.000 T ) – Supply balance => lower fresh consumption at 18.1 kg/capita 1.000 t2007/082008/092009/102010/11f Market production9.11711.49910.9849.697 + Import EU 1) 830731585570 - Export EU 1) 7461.2201.2221.180 = Consumption 2) 9.20111.01010.3479.087 Per capita (kg)18,422,020,718,1 Source : AMI

7. Market Review 2010/2011 Main parameters ( price ) – Lower fresh consumption level but higher price for fresh markets => from average €1.28/kg to € 1.35/kg – Price for apple juice concentrate recovering sharply Source : AMI Source : Agrana

8. OUTLOOK 2011 : EU-27 AND OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

9. 2011 crop forecast : EU-27 10.195.000 T => 10.392.000 T ? ( PL, IT, UK,...=+; BE= -) Cover 21 MS out of 27 ranked 7 th in the decade overview +5% to last year, - 5% to 3Y average and -4% to10Y average Year Production in ‘000 T 200411.599 200811.491 200910.976 200210.718 200510.643 200610.231 201110.195/10.392 200310.086 20109.697 20079.098

10. 2011 crop forecast : EU-27 Member StatesF201120102009 Poland 230018502600 Italy 221221792237 France 165515791651 Germany 8968351071 Spain 502486470 Netherlands 418340402 Romania 375423379 Hungary 300488514 Belgium 298288344 Portugal 265251274 Greece 245254224 UK 219214212 Austria 192169185 Slovenia 736664 Czech Rep 66103145 Lithuania 604674 Bulgaria 40 35 Slovakia 333248 Denmark 202124 Sweden 182018 Latvia 81213 Poland back as n° 1 producing country

11. EU -27 forecast 2011: comments ( production ) Orchard & production – Stable in most of the countries ( ca 580.000 Ha for EU-27 ) – Some shift to most resistant varieties ( RO, SLO, … ) or grubbing up to be replaced by stonefruit ( North Spain ) or pears ( Benelux) – 2011 production split East 1% up ( PL recovery ) but expected higher volume move from West to East due to short production in HU,.. Varieties : – Golden by far n°1 at 2.5 Mln T ( + 5%) – Peak crop for Cripps Pink ( 170.000 T), Fuji ( 254.000 T) while Gala is gain over 1 Mln T – On-going growth of new varieties, including in particular club varieties ( Junami, Kanzi, Rubens,…) – Decline for Idared, Jonagold, Red Delicious, Morgendurf,..

12. EU -27 forecast 2011: comments ( varieties ) VarieitesF201120102009 Golden Delicious 253324012630 Gala 10599861074 Red Delicious 635662724 Jonagold 594522737 Idared 575569795 Elstar 429361487 Granny Smith 338339341 Braeburn 311289338 Shampion 293257323 Fuji 254250245 Jonathan 221282305 Jonagored 182178204 Cripps Pink 170159162 Gloster 116111113 Reinette Grise du CND 10410199 Lobo 10061100 Bramley 9195 Cox Orange 89 65 Morgendurf/imperatore 778167 Cortland 705080 Boskoop 636082 Annurca 403435 Red Jonaprince 312829 Pinova 302735 Stayman 171816 Spartan 568

13. EU -27 forecast 2011: comments ( weather ) Earlier crop in most of the regions – UK up to 3 weeks anticipation : Discovery and Windsor on shelf end of July – Other countries : 1 or 2 weeks – Italy : anticipation reduced Climatic conditions – Overall good across Europe – Strong wind in PT – Significant frost damages early May in HU, CZ, RO and part of Germany. More limited impact in PL and – Low t° and rain in GR leading to low crop – Hail damages in North IT, BE => increased volume to processing Jonathan -21%

14. EU -27 forecast 2011: comments ( quality ) Quality : overall good – Warm spring, « cold » and rainy summer in North and West – Limited disease damages – Size : medium to large – Good coloring – Frost damage : mainly in Eastern part of Europe – Some damage due to hail ( part of Italy, France,… => additional volume to processing ) – EU organic production up by almost 20% at 111.000 T

15. 2011 crop forecast : Other European countries Balkan : 560.000 T Strong data improvements from Balkan region: Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia Ukraine: production is moving over 1 Mln T development of Golden (+ 90.000 T), RenetSymyrenko (+ 57.000 T) and Jonagold ( +50.000 T) favourable conditions during blossom some frost in Southern part with limited impact & some local hail larger fruit size than usual & harvest date as usual Turkey : 2.4 Mln T – one of the largest production potential in European area 87% for fresh domestic market consumption, 3% for fresh exports and 10 % for juice. Limited import. Other Europe in ‘000 T20102011 Var in% Albania45487% Belarus150 20% Bosnia5248-8% Croatia9592-3% Macedonia12287-29% Moldova325300-8% Russia182619004% Serbia260 0% Switzerland1271356% Turkey240224321% Ukraine896104917% Total Other Europe630065014%

16. 2.2 0.7 1 2.3 0.6 0.5 2.4 1.9 1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 European region 2011 16.7 Mln T 0.2

17. 2011 crop outlook : Tentative global balance 2011 Southern Hemisphere supply (WAPA Berlin) 1% down at 5.2 Mln T EU : + 5% at 10.1 Mln T Other Europe : + 4% at 6.5 Mln T North America : USA slightly up ( +2% ) Canada down ( - 6%), Mexico significantly up by 20% China : trends up again to 33 Mln T ? => Globally, world apple supply 2011 estimates could be up by 5% for surveyed countries ( =90% of world apple production ) Southern Hemisphere20102011Var Argentina80092816% Australia2572664% Brazil1226951-22% Chile175517852% New Zealand44850312% South Africa7757953% Total52615228-1%

18. 5.5 16.7 33 5.2 1.7 2.5 In Mln T per region World apple production 65 Mln T +

19. MARKET OUTLOOK 2011-2012

20. EU Market outlook 2011-2012 : stocks – Almost cleared for fresh apples EU 1st July (less than 200.000 T) – USA : same USA – AJC :no stocks, strong start but EU East : low crop EU West : good quality and good size for fresh market Apple Stocks (Ton) %2011/20 10 Moved 2011 Moved 20101/07/20111/07/20101/07/20091/07/20081/07/2007 Austria (Steiermark)-19,9%-15.246-17.74719.33624.13732.19013.73715.849 Belgium-50,9%-11.041-17.64623.49947.86874.00089.50047.500 Czech Republic -1.545-4.7060 Denmark 0000000 France-4,6%-52.565-80.74340.05941.995 Germany-56,7%-22.910-31.96611.89827.49729.6775.97515.427 Italy-1,9%-92.135-101.95293.06394.860122.09960.21862.087 Poland-100,0%-15.000-45.000 25.0005.00000 Portugal 000 Spain (Catalonia)-22,7%-15.363-14.6758.71611.27429.15745.86240.135 Switzerland3,4%-6.147-6.9459.6469.3278.2725.9799.898 The Netherlands -36.000-58.0000 United Kingdom-33,3%-5.000-6.0004.0006.00011.00005.000 TOTAL-27,0%-272.952-385.380210.217287.958311.395221.271195.896

21. EU Market outlook 2011-2012 : international trade ( import ) – EU Import : 551 Mln € ( value 2010 ) – SH exported more in total ( 1.7 Mln T ) – but moderate volume to Europe EU main suppliers 2010in 000T Chile176,5 New Zealand126 South Africa112,7 Brazil70,7 Argentina46,5 USA20 Macedonia13,9 China10,9 Croatia2 Uruguay1,8 Canada1,5 Bosnia1 1 2

22. Apples Remarks: Southern Hemisphere production is stable at 5.2 Mln T Export planned to be up by 5% but export to Europe seems declining => market diversification Southern Hemisphere20102011Var Argentina80092816% Australia2572664% Brazil1226951-22% Chile175517852% New Zealand44850312% South Africa7757953% Total52615228-1% SHAFFE / WAPA pear production forecast Berlin February 2011

23. EU Market outlook 2011-2012 : international trade – EU Export : 558 Mln € ( value 2010 ) – Uncertainties : SPS, world economy, strenght of the € ….. – Russia : Safety certificates maintained for apples from BE, DE, EL,FR, HU, IT, NL, PL – Market demand in North Africa : Algeria, Egypt,… – SPS protocol negotiation EU Destinationin 000T Russia563 Ukraine195 Algeria89 Belarus43 Lybia42 Saudi Arabia37 Norway34 Kazakhstan31 Emirate25 Morocco13 Turkey13 Bosnia11 Switzerland10 Egypt9 Malaysia9 Croatia8

24. EU Market outlook 2011-2012 : domestic market Overall positive given moderate apples crop & perspective of 1 to 2 weeks more for marketing and good kick off condition (no stocks or SH overlap ) but : – Economic situation – affecting consumer confidence – EHEC crisis and image of fresh produce category – Stagnating apples consumption – Poor market conditions for several fresh produce across Europe ( stonefruits, citrus, bananas …. ) – Heavy price competition and return to growers – More intra trade from West to East ( ?) – shortage in HU, CZ, RO, no bumper crop in PL -demand from AJC – Pear crop up- overall EU apple & pear +6%

25. EU Market outlook 2011-2012 : regulatory issue Monitoring import licences – removed as of 1 September ( Com Regulation 669/2011) but – TAXUD and Eurostat data remaining available & SHAFFE monitoring is on-going Morpholine (Regulation 1333/2008 ) – Not registered as additive in the EU => use is forbidden – On-going discussion for setting a cross contamination level ( at 0.3 ppm, ) Status DPA – Being phased out unless new registration is requested ( Com Decision 2009/859 ) – MRL status unclear ( Com Regulation 149/2008) Commission proposal to move to detection level but process of discussion and adoption is at least 9 months - consequences of persistant effect if detection level also for EU growers – non regulatory requirements to be taken into acount Different MRL to be considered if new registration succeeds

26. CONCLUSION

27. Key points 2011-2012 Mixed parameters but hopefully a positive outlook for 2011/2012 : Positive elements for the season: – “Moderate low” crop – Early start on a clean background – Good quality and size for fresh market – Demand for the AJC industry Negative elements for the season: – Complex fruit and vegetables markets – Market price and return to grower – Uncertainties about Russian market – Economic uncertainties – Stagnating consumption Prognosfruit 2012 : 3-4 August 2012 in Toulouse ( France ) with www.prognosfruit.eu

28. Thanks! www.wapa-association.org