1. 1 Prioritizing Long Term Multimodal Transportation Policies for Virginia Megan Kersh Asad Saqib Matthew Schroeder Ward Williams

2. 2 Agenda  Goals and Objectives  Expected Changes  Proposed Methodology Regions Time Periods Scenarios Policies Evaluation Tools

3. 3 Goal Develop and demonstrate methodology for the use of scenario based policy making and planning by the Multimodal Office

4. 4 Objectives  Review scenario based planning  Identify and classify scenarios  Identify policies specific to time horizons, regions, and modes  Develop methods to compare policies used with scenarios (cost effectiveness, ROI, etc.)  Provide examples of all the above  Make recommendations for the long range plan

5. 5 Expected Changes in Virginia Transportation Demand by 2025  Outlines expected changes in population, economy, households, public policy, freight, and passenger travel  Sources of transportation demand: Socioeconomic, policy, and freight trends  Measures of transportation use: Freight movements by mode, automobile use, mode choice Source: Vtrans, March 31, 2003 www.virginiadot.org/projects/vtrans/resources/VTransTrendsMarch31F.pdf

6. 6 Proposed Methodology

7. 7

8. 8 Regions  Three regions are more manageable Source: http://www.tfhrc.gov/pubrds/06sep/images/dep2.gifhttp://www.tfhrc.gov/pubrds/06sep/images/dep2.gif

9. 9 Proposed Methodology

10. 10 Time Horizons 20 years 10 years 5 years

11. 11 Proposed Methodology

12. 12 Types of Scenarios  Spatial  Economical  Demographical Number of households, in/out-migration  Other Environmental Availability of energy resources National emergencies Natural disasters

13. 13 Spatial Scenarios  Urban core repopulates People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchanged Public transportation increases, clean transportation  Sprawl accelerates Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increases Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion  Information technology amenities grow More workers telecommute so sprawl continues Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas  Region undivided Shift job and household growth from west to east  Transit oriented development More people live and work closer to transit Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee- documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

14. 14 Economical Scenarios  Regional economy strengthens Many workers move to region, sprawl continues  Global trade intensifies Population decreases, increased use of automobiles  Energy cost rises People relocate to more transit-oriented locations Decreased use of automobile, air quality increases  Infrastructure investment expands May draw people to area in the long run Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee- documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

15. 15 Demographical Scenarios  In-migration increases Total population increases, increased use of auto  Out-migration increases Population decreases, increased use of auto  More households Increased household growth to balance forecast job growth Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee- documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

16. 16 Other Scenarios  “Green” region emphasized Use of public transit, bike, etc.  Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland security tightened Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not emphasized  Carbon constrained future  Energy constrained future Global price shocks and shortages Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee- documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

17. 17 Methodologies for Scenario Development Royal Dutch Shell Approach  Decide drivers for change/assumptions through brainstorming  Bring drivers together into a viable framework Recognize relation among factors and group scenarios  Produce initial (7-9) mini scenarios  Reduce to 2-3 scenarios Complementary to avoid having to pick a preferred one Test – is it logical and intuitive?  Draft qualitative scenarios  Identify the issues arising What will have greatest impact, potential for crisis Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning

18. 18 Proposed Methodology

19. 19 Suggested Policies  Set of policies presented by Vtrans2025  Presented in phase 3 final report to General Assembly  Focuses on four policy areas Funding/Investment Land use Connectivity Priority Setting

20. 20 Funding/Investment  Invest More in Transportation User fees and taxes must be increased, new sources of funding, such as indexing fuel taxes to inflation, and greater use of tolling and General Funds must be considered in order to address investment needs and increase system capacity.  Support Transit  Remove Bias The state should not bias the local choice of transit versus roadways by the way in which it funds the modes  Fund Rail  Protect Transportation Trust Fund Revenues

21. 21 Land Use  Strengthen Planning Including Modeling Land Use Impacts Strengthen local and regional planning and enhance the role of the state as a reliable and active partner in those planning efforts.  Manage Access Implement access management policies that ensure greater compatibility of land use and transportation priorities  Consider State Versus Local Roles  Address the Transportation/Land Use Conflict

22. 22 Connectivity  Improve Connections  Think Multimodally Transit, pedestrian, bike and rail-friendly design features included in new construction  Take the Lead Virginia must lead in connectivity of interstate corridors  Invest in Technology Maximize the efficiency of the existing transportation system through developing technology

23. 23 Priority Setting  Use Objective Criteria Establish objective criteria for all modes in order to measure success of projects and predict success of investments  Plan Multimodally Continue development of the Multimodal Investment Network (MIN) approach as a framework for planning and prioritizing multimodal projects at the state level

24. 24 Proposed Methodology

25. 25 Evaluation Tools for Policies  Return on Investment  Cost-benefit analysis  Risk Analysis  Impact Analysis  Sensitivity Analysis  Systems Analysis and Integration

26. 26 Other Research  FHWA future scenario planning policy  Washington State case study  Futuristic transportation policies  Research on other case studies that involve future scenarios and policies

27. 27 Overview of FHWA Future Scenario Planning Methodology  Step 1: Research the driving forces Define the major sources of change that impact the future  Step 2: Determine patterns of interaction How driving forces could combine to determine future conditions  Step 3: Create scenarios Think about implications that different situations could bring about Create basic stories based upon the interaction of drivers  Step 4: Analyze implications Try to make graphic visualizations of the scenarios  Step 5: Evaluate scenarios Present to stakeholders and public graphically if possible Formulate reasoned responses to respond to change  Step 6: Monitor indicators Scenario planning is an on-going process for a region

28. 28 Washington: Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Cross-Base Highway Project http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/NR/rdonlyre s/D036B8E5-CDC6-4D0F-BEF3- 68200F45DA09/0/SR704FinalReport April252007_3_.pdf  Transportation improvement between two cities  Evaluating 3 alternatives using:  Net Present Value  Internal Rate of Return  Cost/Benefit Ratio  Opportunity Cost  Timing

29. 29 Three Alternatives  Alternative 1 – The Build Alternative. This scenario is to construct a 6 mile limited access highway to connect roads.  Alternative 2 – Widening of road. This scenario would involve the addition of another general purpose traffic lane.  Alternative 3 – Transit Enhancement. This scenario would involve the building of a light rail system This would be the first direct east-west transit link between the two cities.

30. 30 Estimating Transportation Improvements Benefits

31. 31 Detailed Tangible Benefits

32. 32 Detailed Benefits, Costs, and Net Benefits

33. 33 Future Research and Goals  Continue research of future scenarios, policies, and evaluation tools  Create methodologies for comparing policies with a financial focus  Consider both opportunistic and problematic future scenarios

34. 34 Fitting Scenarios To Policies  Future

35. 35 Applying the Flow Chart Methodology  For the future