1. Wheat/Barley Joint Conference Tottori, Japan 27 – 28 November, 2004 Shoichi Ito, Ph.D. Tottori University, Japan http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp November 27, 2004 World Wheat at Stake -- Contemporary Global Grain Supply Demand Competition – 危機に瀕する世界のコムギ

2. Crisis coming from Weak Demand 消費減退から来る危機 ….. Losing the competition among the crops…. 競争に負けていく !!!

3. No population explosion!! 人口爆発は来ない！！

4. Fig. 8. Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150 MillionsBillions Million Annual increments Population size Source: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm) ?!

7. Growth Rates in Population and Grains in the World 世界の人口･食料増加率 (UN, USDA, 2001) Pop. Growth rate/year 人口増加率 / 年 （ ‘90-’10 ） 19901.6% 19921.5% 19941.4% –20001.3% –20250.8% –20500.3% Prod’n. growth rate/year 生産増加率 / 年 (1996-2000) コメ Rice1.7% コムギ Wt 1.7% コーン Cn 2.8% ダイズ Sb5.5%

9. China rate -0.331% 2000’s

13. 13

14. Fig. 14. Substitute relationships among crops in production and consumption Feed Livestk Wheat Soybn Syml Corn Rice Food Men SoybnWheat Rice Corn Livestk Fruit Vege Prod’n Prod’r SoybnWheat Rice CornOther

15. Impacts of shift in supply and demand curves

16. Source : http://faostat.fao.org/faostat/

19. Competition among major crops: Wheat, Rice, Corn, Soybeans 米、小麦、コーン、大豆の 作物間競争 Not only that------- Meat and Dairy それだけではない！！ 肉類も競争に加わった！！！

20. Fig. 14. Substitute relationships among crops in production and consumption Feed Livestk Wheat Soybn Syml Corn Rice Food Men SoybnWheat Rice Corn Livestk Fruit Vege Prod’n Prod’r SoybnWheat Rice CornOther

21. Source : http://www.fapri.org/tools/outlook.aspx

24. Source : http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp China rate - 0.331% China rate -1.77% China rate -3.452% Average rate formula: X t+n = (1 + r) n Q t

25. Source : http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp China rate - 0.331% China rate – 1.77% China rate – 3.452%

26. Weaker demand for wheat means… コムギの需要が減退する と・・・ Over-supply of wheat Decline global market prices Loss to producers End up with smaller wheat production

27. Fig. 12. Nominal world price of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans

28. Fig. 13. Real world price of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans

29. What to do for future? 1. Develop new strategies for more food consumption 2. More feed use 3. Processed food using wheat 4. Cut production costs

30. Thank you!