1. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 1

2. UNSTABLE The UNderstanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta Boundary Layers Experiment Neil Taylor 1, Dave Sills 2, John Hanesiak 3, Jason Milbrandt 4 1 Hydrometeorology and Arctic Lab, Environment Canada (EC) 2 Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, EC 3 Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba 4 NWP Research Section, EC Project Overview First UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April, 2007

3. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 3 Outline Overview of UNSTABLE based on draft Science Plan Rationale Goals and Deliverables Introduce Science Questions Experimental Design Budget Requirements Timeline / Milestones

4. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 4 Rationale: Socio-economic Impacts Alberta Foothills experience more lightning days than anywhere else on the Canadian Prairies

5. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 5 Rationale: Socio-economic Impacts Edmonton – Calgary corridor one of most densely populated regions in Canada and contains Canada’s 3 rd (YYC) and 7 th (YEG) busiest airports

6. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 6 Rationale: Socio-economic Impacts Edmonton – Calgary corridor among fastest growing regions in Canada

7. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 7 Rationale: Socio-economic Impacts Frequent and Severe Thunderstorms + People + More People + Busy Airports = Potential Human and Economic Loss Since 1980 > $2B and > 40 lives lost in AB due to severe thunderstorms Improved understanding of processes leading to severe storms  better warnings  mitigate impacts of severe weather on Canadians

8. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 8 Rationale: Severe Wx Challenges Forecasters face uncertainty with respect to: ABL structure and evolution (especially vertical water vapour profiles in ABL) Role and importance of mesoscale boundaries / circulations in foothills Conceptual models for CI Land surface – ABL interactions (sensible / latent heat fluxes) in foothills and upstream Compounded by: Inadequate observation network to resolve the above NWP performance with respect to above

9. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 9 Rationale: EC Results Management Framework All of EC structured according to Outcome Project Plans (OPPs) – everything we do has an associated OPP UNSTABLE addresses 10 OPPs related to: –Monitoring atmospheric conditions –Weather prediction –Understanding, detection, and prediction of severe and high-impact weather –Understanding the water cycle –Improved weather warnings, forecasts, and warning preparedness –Aviation weather services

10. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 10 UNSTABLE Goals To improve understanding of atmospheric processes (especially in ABL) prior to and during CI and severe thunderstorm development To improve accuracy and lead time for severe thunderstorm watches and warnings To assess utility of GEM-LAM-2.5 to resolve physical processes over AB Foothills and ability to provide useful guidance for CI and severe thunderstorm forecasts To refine existing conceptual models describing CI and severe thunderstorm development over AB and the Western Prairies

11. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 11 UNSTABLE Deliverables Unique and high-resolution dataset of measurements from various platforms including surface, upper-air, and vertical profiles of atmospheric characteristics Peer-reviewed articles, presentations / posters at conferences and workshops Presentations / reference material targeting forecasters at SPCs with operational application Through RSD direct knowledge transfer to operational meteorologists in real time prior to and during high-impact weather events

12. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 12 UNSTABLE Science Questions ABL Processes (Taylor/Sills) 1. What are the contributions of ABL processes to the initiation of deep moist convection and the development of severe thunderstorms in the Alberta Foothills? Land Surface – ABL Interactions (Hanesiak) 2. What are the contributions of surface processes to the initiation of deep moist convection and the development of severe thunderstorms in the Alberta Foothills? Numerical Weather Prediction (Milbrandt) 3. To what extent can high-resolution NWP models contribute to forecasting the initiation and development of severe thunderstorms originating in the Alberta Foothills?

13. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 13 Science Question 1: ABL Processes What is ABL evolution especially wrt water vapour prior to and during CI? What is role and importance of mesoscale convergence boundaries and circulations associated with CI? How are they influenced by terrain and synoptic-scale processes? How do they affect storms (motion, intensity, morphology)? What is 4D characterization of the dryline and importance for CI? Which storms become severe and why? How related to boundaries associated with CI? Are conceptual models adequate? How improve observational network to aid forecasters?

14. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 14 Science Question 2: Land Surface – ABL Interactions Influence of wet / dry areas on CI and storm evolution via agromet. model? Can we resolve gradients in water vapour and mesoscale circulations across wet / dry areas? If so how do they influence CI and storm evolution? What are heat fluxes over the region wrt wet / dry areas and how influence temperature / humidity stratification? How does background flow modify gradients / circulations associated with wet / dry areas? Can ET contributions to ABL PW be quantified? How can observational network be improved to address the above?

15. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 15 Science Question 3: Numerical Weather Prediction What is useful information from the GEM LAM 2.5 for forecasting convection? How can LAM ability to simulate nature of convection be quantified? Can recommendation for LAM to be used to guide a forecast be determined ahead of time? How realistic are ABL and surface processes, storm structures and microphysical processes simulated in the LAM? Can deficiencies in physical parameterizations be quantified? What is the effect of running a nested 1 km simulation within the 2.5 km LAM? Can high-resolution ensembles improve prediction of CI?

16. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 16 Experimental Design: Domain Study area designed to include existing SFC and radar stations given climatological CI and thunderstorm activity Primary domain defined by supplementary mesonet and FCA stations – main focus for mobile measurements Secondary domain to include FCA and other stations – still deploy mobile measurements for interesting cases

17. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 17 Supplemental Instrumentation Fixed Mesonet stations (10-20) 2 radiosonde Tethersonde 2 WV radiometers Profiling radiometer (H 2 O profile) GPS PW sensors Eddy Correlation Flux Tower(s)? Additional Profiling Radiometer (T, RH)? Mobile AMMOS / Strong Mobile (T, P, RH) MARS (PW, SFC wx, profile – wind, T, RH) 3 radiosondes Aircraft Photography Locations of fixed radiometers, GPS sensors, tethersonde to be determined 19 Station Configuration

18. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 18 Experimental Design: Duration and IOP UNSTABLE Study Period 1 June to 31 August Fixed mesonet stations to be deployed prior to June 1st 2008 Mobile instrumentation / communications tests in 15 June to 31 June window Intensive Observation Period Tentatively 9 July to 31 July (23 days) contingent on field participation, expendables,… UNSTABLE Field Plan to be developed this fall / winter

19. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 19 Budgeting Requirements EC UNSTABLE contributions thus far exceed $50K (not including ATMOS, AMMOS, tethersonde,…) ItemCost ($) Radiosondes / Expendables (350 sondes – 223 stockpiled)25K / 20K Research Aircraft250K ATMOS Station Communications6K Travel 2007 (conferences / meetings)7K Travel 2008 (meetings, field campaign)20K+ (depends on number of field participants and duration of IOP) Students40K (EC) + Other Shipping Equipment (ATMOS, AMMOS, Tethersonde, other) 15K Training (OHS, Tethersonde, First Aid)5K Fencing Hardware for mesonet stations7K Radiometrics coefficients if necessary4K Vehicle rentals / fuel5K Total400K +

20. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 20 Timeline and Milestones DateEvent Summer 2006Test of ATMOS and AMMOS 27-29 September 2006Preliminary Mesonet Site Selection March 2007UNSTABLE website and leads for science questions 2 and 3 6 April 2007Draft Science Plan distributed and posted 18-19 April 2007First UNSTABLE Science Workshop Spring / Summer 2007Finalize Science Plan 2-4 May 2007Mesonet Site Selection 31 May 2007Presentations at 41 st CMOS Congress 18 June – 13 July 2007BAQS-Met: field use of ATMOS, AMMOS, tethersonde 1 Sept – 13 Nov 2007Develop UNSTABLE Field Plan 27 Nov 2007UNSTABLE Field Plan workshop 29 Feb 2008UNSTABLE Field Plan finalized 31 Mar 2008Finalize all land-use agreements 12-31 May 2008Deploy fixed mesonet stations 1 June – 31 Aug 2008UNSTABLE Study Period 9-31 July 2008UNSTABLE IOP 1-19 Sept 2008Remove mesonet stations, etc. 22 Sept 2008Begin data QC Fall 2008UNSTABLE article for CMOS / BAMS Funding Requests

21. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 21 Principal Investigators Neil Taylor, HAL, EC Science Question 1 Co-Lead, Project Manager Dave Sills, CPSWRS, EC Science Question 1 Co-Lead John Hanesiak, CEOS, U of Manitoba Science Question 2 Lead Jason Milbrandt, RPN, EC Science Question 3 Lead Pat McCarthy, PASPC, EC PASPC Severe Weather Program Supervisor Geoff Strong, Adjunct Professor, U of Alberta

22. June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 22 Summary Planning continues for the UNSTABLE field campaign in 2008 –science questions and planning document have been drafted This workshop an opportunity to refine the science plan (science questions, instrumentation and deployment strategies, etc.) – soliciting input from this group to make it better Final version to be submitted for funding within EC and externally for NSERC, other sources Still need to confirm some participation / collaboration –Instrumentation –Field participants –Funding –Data analysis / QC champions Research aircraft requires significant funding Logistics for IOP to be developed in field plan this fall / winter

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