Situation Analysis Week 2 BA-343.

Situation Analysis Week 2 BA-343

Begin Situation Analysis-
Define Environmental Scanning Examine Competitor Analysis Delineate Sources of CI Conduct a PEST Analysis of U.S What R best resources to use… What need to know What R significant forces (recent past, present & near future)

(& continuous process thereafter)
1st Step (& continuous process thereafter) Situation Analysis Strategic Planning Situation Analysis Marketing Strategy P’s The Marketing Mix: Company Consumers Competitors Conditions PEST Growth & Competitive Strategies WM TGT E D C N G F Service Positioning Strategy

What can (is) will impact(ing) your Strategies…
Situation Analysis … provides on-going answers to any & every question regarding: What can (is) will impact(ing) your Strategies…

Consumers Company Competitors
Political Economic Socio-cultural Technological Conditions Market Structure (Segments, size, growth rate) Consumer Behavior (purchasing determinants & patterns) Consumers Industry Structure Analysis (entry/exit barriers, buyers, sellers, substitutes) Competitor Response Profiles (capabilities, performance & strategies) Company Economic Analysis (costs, profitability) Customer Analysis (volume, frequency, Loyalty) Company Audit (Strength &, weaknesses, Resources, Culture, Goals) Competitors

1st part Situation Analysis is Environmental Scanning
The process of identifying the nature & magnitude of Uncontrollable forces in the external (macro) environment exerting significant influence on your strategies…

Demographic Psychographic
EXTERNAL-UNCONTROLLABLE FORCES: Impacting Strategies Competitors Consumers Technological Political Technological Regulatory Social Demographic Psychographic trends Economic

Environmental Scan of the United States

Growth & Competitive Strategies
Strategic Planning Situation Analysis Marketing Strategy P’s Our Task Today The Marketing Mix: Company Consumers Competitors Conditions PEST Growth & Competitive Strategies WM TGT E D C N G F Service Positioning Strategy

Competition is a Multifaceted Concept
There are Multiple Levels of competition… & Multiple Dimensions of competition..

Levels of Competition Generic Need: Product Class: Category:Beverages
Broad Thirst Generic Need: Product Class: Milk Coffee Soda Tea Juice Category:Beverages Ground Whole Bean Instant Coffee Bag Product Form: Folger’s Starbuck’s Millstone Gevalia Brands: Narrow

Competition is: Everywhere & Everything
Time or $ spent (Budget Competition) on anything but your product/service is competition Main Competition may be Rivalry Among Sellers (Brand Competition)…but Competition comes from all sides Porter’s 5 Forces

Porter’s 5 Forces Model of Competition
Threat of Mobility More substitutes = lower prices & profits Substitute Products (Category, Class, Form) Supplier Power few suppliers & supply costs rise Suppliers Rivalry Among Competing Sellers Segment Rivalry Increased competition = lower profits Buyers Buyer Power few, large buyers, can bargain down prices Potential New Entrants New Competitors Easy entry = lower prices & profits Threat of Substitution

Gathering Competitive Intelligence

Competitive intelligence is a systematic way of identifying & gathering timely, relevant information about a company’s existing & potential competitors. CI necessarily involves an audit of a wide range of competitors’ company structure, operations, personal & positions- such as: Financial Position Market Position Product Position Price Position Logistics Production Process Trade Relations Advertising & Promotions Executive Profiles Sales Force Process

Cultivating Your Competitive Intelligence Sources
Practicalities of an Effective CI System · To be effective, a CI system must provide a constant flow of timely & accurate info that is disseminated to decision makers & transformed into actionable strategy & tactics. · Without action, intelligence is useless. · Intelligence is derived from info analysis. · The collection of info is just the beginning of a successful CI system. Internet Marketing Intelligence: Research Tools, Techniques, and Resources (Paperback) , ~2003 by Edward Forrest

Chapter 5 Outlined 12 Steps for Conducting CI on the Internet
Check Key CI Resources Search for Company Information Search Your Competitors Web Sites & Personal Pgs Search for Trade Associations & Conferences Peruse Job/Career Sites Survey Competitor’s Customers On-Line Utilize Comparative-Shopping Services Search News Groups & Read Mailing Lists News You Can Use Personalize Your Information Searches Outsource the CI Function Use Search Engines

Delineated best Websites Biz-Info-Services
& related Biz-Info-Services

1. Check Key CI Resource Sources
CI Resource Index - Over 1,800 links to corporate & association data, books, newsletters, journals, seminars and more Fuld & Company, Internet Intelligence Index™ Links to over 600 intelligence-related sites EDGAR Society of CI Professionals

Selected Business Info Websites
Business Wire C-SPAN - CAROL - Company Annual Reports Online for the United Kingdom MarketWatch - monitor company news, press releases, national/global financial data (RSS feeds and alerts available) ChoicePoint Online - CNN Money Company Research Lookup- CNN Money, YellowBrix Industry Watch

Selected Business Info Websites (con’t)
Corporate Library, Companies, Directors & CEOs ($) Dun & Bradstreet - subscription req’d ZapData EIU.com - country intelligence Factiva - news and business info, subscription req’d Fortune Company Profiles - much of this data now requires subscription Forbes 500s - Largest corporations by sales, profits, assets and market value

Hoover’s Online - Browse reports by industry sector, by selected topics, reports by report type Investext KnowX.com - Public Records free and fee LIVEDGAR - subscription req’d (now owned by Thomson Corp.) MSN Money - stock company reports, financial results, key ratios, income statements

Moodys.com subscription req’d Report Gallery - Annual reports and 10K reports in HTML and PDF format Stocks and Stock Market Information from Reuters.com Headlines, company information/profiles, analyst research, industry watch. Some data requires subscription SEC filings SECInfo.com - Disclosure Online Database-US Public Company Profiles (Lexis) $

Standard & Poor’s - subscription req’d Financial News Archive via Yahoo, Mergerstat M&A Database - subscription req’d Thomas Register subscription req’d Yahoo Financial News by Provider

Selected Online People Trackers
Accurint - fee-based AutoTrackXP – subscription/fee req’d Dun & Bradstreet - subscription req’d Forbes.com People Tracker – reg. req’d Lycos People Search - Search Systems - over 35,000 (and counting) free, searchable public records databases from across the country. Some databases, as indicated with $, are fee-based. “Googling” a person: enter an individual’s name, “John Doe”

Online People Trackers
Who Represents Corporate America, ALM Who Represents/Protects IP America Who Represents America's Biggest Companies Nelson’s Public Company Profiles America’s Corporate Finance Directory also useful for identification of other outside service providers, including auditor, banker, pension manager, insurance carriers, investment banker, etc. Directory of Corporate Affiliations Standard & Poor’s Corporate Register

Web Directories and Portals
CEOExpress - Links to dozens of reliable, business related resources (fee and free) Lexis - MagPortal - magazine articles on business Portal to International Business Resources

Web Directories and Portals (con’t)
Wall Street Executive Library Directory of over 1,450 sources that includes: national/international news; company and industry, government, marketing and advertising, statistics and economic research Yahoo Pick and choose from long list of sites that includes links to vendors, consultants, white papers, articles, and research tools

Television and Radio News Transcripts – including streaming audio/video
Bloomberg.com - $ Transcripts.TV - $ ABC News programming and other network news programs. Federal News Service - available via database, browser and RSS. $ NPR: Transcripts and CDs - $ “The Television News Archive collection at Vanderbilt University is the world’s most extensive and complete archive of television news. The collection holds more than 30,000 individual network evening news broadcasts from the major U.S. national broadcast networks: ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN, and more than 9,000 hours of special news-related programming including ABC’s Nightline since 1989.” $, “TVEyes Video Search lets you search the Internet for TV clips” (free and fee)

News Alerts (con’t) Dow Jones MarketWatch.com - Yahoo! Alerts - Law.com Daily Legal Newswire - RSS feed, FindLaw alerts - daily opinion summaries, weekly opinion summaries, general topical newsletters Legislative monitoring and tracking Gallerywatch.com - subscription only CapitolHearings.org - CSPAN - THOMAS -

E-Newsletters, Online Newspapers, Journals and News Sources
Biz Journals - Bloomberg – CNN Money - Financial Times - $ Forbes - Fortune - Investors Business Daily -

E-Newsletters, Online Newspapers, Journals and News Sources (con’t)
Moreover - Newsisfree - TheDeal.com - subscription req’d Time.com: Inside Business Wall Street Journal - subscription req’d WSJ company and industry news trackers, for reg’d users WSJ Free Features, Law Blog, Yahoo! Finance - Yahoo! Financial News -

Monitoring Trends, Companies and Products – Selected News Aggregators and RSS Feeds
List and links to dozens of news aggregators - Dmoz open directory project - Bloglines - NewzCrawler - NewsGator, runs in Microsoft Outlook - Rocket RSS Reader - RocketInfo Desktop -

Monitoring Trends, Companies and Products – Selected News Aggregators and RSS Feeds (con’t)
RSS Feeds – Look for Orange Icon that says either RSS, XML or Atom ABCNews - BBC - Bizjournals.com - Forbes.com - MarketWatch New York Times - NPR - Reuters - Washington Post Yahoo! News -

Online Tools for Competitor Monitoring
Website Trackers Copernic Agent - WebSite Watcher - Web2Mail - ChangeDetection - Tracerlock -

Online Tools for Competitor Monitoring (con’t)
Who’s Mailing What sells competitive intelligence data on what kind of direct mail programs other major firms are conducting - category 586 is legal services MarkMonitor domain name filings provide insight into new law firm directions, service offerings

Selected Bibliographies, Guides & Books
Better Management.com - Significant source of links to CI literature Business Information Searcher Competitive Intelligence Magazine Competitive Intelligence Resource Guide More than one dozen recommended titles from the public and private sector Helicon’s Articles & Book Reviews on CI and Related Topics -

Useful uTube Clip Yahoo Pipes Keyword Spy Compete Alexa Spy Fu Xinu
Quantcast

Growth & Competitive Strategies
Strategic Planning Situation Analysis Marketing Strategy P’s Next Task Today The Marketing Mix: Company Consumers Competitors Conditions PEST Growth & Competitive Strategies WM TGT E D C N G F Service Positioning Strategy

Macro-Environmental Conditions

For each Domain-We’ll Examine:
What U need to know –scan & monitor… What R best resources to use… What R some of the most significant factors (recent past, present & near future) & their strategic implications.

Legal & Regulatory

1. What need to know All Laws, Regulations & Guidelines
Political-Legal & Regulatory 1. What need to know All Laws, Regulations & Guidelines All Relevant lawmakers, Regulatory Agencies, Commissions & Personnel that create & enforce the laws, regs & guidelines..

Major Laws Affecting Business…
• Sherman Antitrust Act (1890) – supports free trade & restrains monopolistic activities • Clayton Act (1914) – prohibits local price cutting to freeze out competition • Federal Trade Commission Act–(1914) creates the FTC to prevent unfair methods of competition • Robinson-Patman Act (1936) – prohibits price discrimination to different purchasers- AKA “Anti-chain-store Act” • Lanham Act (1946) – protects & regulates brand names/marks

Political-Legal & Regulatory
2. Best Resources

2. Best Resources World Trade Law- http://www.worldtradelaw.net/
Political-Legal & Regulatory 2. Best Resources World Trade Law- Courtlink - CourtExpress - ALM Research Online – Law.com RSS Feeds -

3. Most significant factors / trends …
Political-Legal & Regulatory 3. Most significant factors / trends … Recent Past Explosion of Regulations at Local, State & Federal Levels Present Growth of Regulation of Global & Internet Commerce Near Future New legislation regarding: Copyright & Intellectual Property Right

Today -No Shortage of Laws, Regulations & Guidelines:
Controlling Business & Marketing practices

Nor – No Shortage of Agencies, Commissions & Administrations to Enforce those Laws, Codes, Guidelines Rise of the Bureaucrats

While Regulation Necessary :
It Comes w/ a Cost:

And its only going to get worse…
Governments are only now beginning to address dramatic challenges of global Internet trade & eCommerce. Stuart S. Malawer

Trade & Foreign Policy Issues for the 21st Century
Uniform Commercial Code for eCommerce Customs & taxation Electronic payment systems Intellectual property protection Privacy (data transfers) Cyber Security Content Technical standards Telecommunications Infrastructure, Information Technology & Internet. Telephone access, connection charges & other restrictions as trade issues …FDI into domestic telecom & Internet industries. (Many foreign telecoms are still state owned.)

ABILITY to Spend WILLINGNESS to Spend What need to know
Economic Factors What need to know ABILITY to Spend WILLINGNESS to Spend

Economic Forces- Need to assess 2 key factors:
ABILITY to Spend Measure- Buying Power Statistics on population, retail sales, & household income*are combined to calculate a buying power Index for specific demo and/or geographic area Gross Income Total HH-income earned in 1 year Disposable Income Amount of $ consumer has left after paying taxes Discretionary Income Amount of $ that remains after paying for taxes and “necessities” (Used for LUXURY ITEMS)

- Best Resources - Buying Power
Economic Factors Nielsen Claritas

Economic Forces- Need to assess 2 key factors: 1. Ability to Spend &
2. WILLINGNESS to Spend Consumer Confidence Index Measures: 1. Current business conditions 2. Business conditions for the next six months 3. Current employment conditions 4. Employment conditions for the next six months 5. Total family income for the next six months.

- Best Resource- Consumer Confidence
Economic Factors - Best Resource- Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence Index ®
® Bounces Back August 25, 2009

Other Valuable W3 Resources Info/Data on Economics
W3 provides instant access to key economic indicators: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Unemployment Rate, Retail Trade, Average Weekly Earnings & company profits. Bureau of Labor Statistics stats.bls.gov US Census Bureau

* Most significant factors / trends …
Economic Factors * Most significant factors / trends … Recent Past Collapse / Constriction of the Middle-Class Present Globalization of the Economy- Near Future …Continued increase in outsourcing… spread to any & all tasks/jobs conducted on/thru the Internet

A Shrinking Middle Class

Key Economic Trends Middle class -shrinking size & purchasing power
Upper class - growing size & purchasing power Lower class - growing size but not purchasing power

Washington Post: “As Income Gap Widens, Uncertainty Spreads”

The wealthiest 1% own more wealth than bottom 95%
Today U.S. most unequal distribution of wealth & income of any western society The wealthiest 1% own more wealth than bottom 95% The richest 13,000 families earn more than bottom 20 million Bill Gates wealth exceeds the bottom 45% American households combined Over last 30 yrs, top 100 CEO’s went from earning 39 times pay of their workers to more than 1,000 times Here are some more statistics: Who do you suppose is the largest employer? Largest employer used to be GM (providing good wages and benefits); today it’s Wal-Mart, anti-union, paying low wages/benefits

% Total U.S. Wages Top .01 =6% Top 10% =~50%

The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class
1 hour lecture --Fact packed– but a bit of a snoozer–

1st Mfg.. then IT.. Next Management
Since 1967, we’ve lost 25+ million factory workers in America In 1982, there were 417,000 temporary workers. Today= ~ 6 million 3.5 million -U.S. white-collar jobs moving offshore by 2015, averaging 200,000 a year. Source: Forrester Research Inc

Where the IT Jobs Go! India graduates 300,000 IT engineers and 90,000 MBAs per year— and now China produces more IT graduates than India… Source: Computer world and Interunity Group, Inc., April & May 2003 Base: Survey of 252 corporate IT managers in the U.S.; multiple responses allowed

Why does your organization outsource to non-U.S. locations?

The economy of work.. will be increasingly hourglass-shaped.
Growing divergence betw. those employed in highly skilled, highly paid professions, & those at bottom Outsourcing- will continue. Reservation agents, computer programmers, database managers, financial analysts - all those whose jobs w/ repetitive tasks performed on a computer - will have been relocated abroad. "Only the customer-facing jobs will be left,"

1. What Socio-cultural Factors need to know…
Nothing less than the nature & magnitude of change in people’s attitudes, beliefs, norms, customs, & lifestyles … …especially w/ respect to evaluations, values & behaviors relevant to perception of /preference for your “product”

Best Resources -Socio-cultural Factors

Trend Monitoring Other Useful Sites
HOW TO USE: Google~Trends

Examples of Trend-Spotting Research Services
The Merchants of Cool – Hunting for cool

~ Significant Socio-cultural trends…
Recent Past Meltdown of the “Traditional Family” Present Growth of Clanning: “Social networking” & Virtual communities… Near Future Dramatic aging of US population- as # Senior-Citizens will double betw. now & 2030…

NUCLEAR FAMILY MELTDOWN
The percent of married couples with children is about half what it was in 1970. We are seeing continued numbers of couples who either do not choose to have kids or wait a number of years to have children. This report is predicting that for children born in the 1990’s, more than half will live part of their childhood in a single parent family. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population

Trends in US Households and Families
This slide relates to material on pp : Indicates place where slide “builds” to include the corresponding point. Married Couple without children High Divorce Rate “Traditional” Family Summary Overview Household and family compositions have changed significantly over time. The “traditional family”--composed of a mother, father, and at least two young children--is not the only concern for marketers. There are many other variations in households and family composition. Key Issues Most American households do not fit the “traditional family” profile. Today, Americans tend to get married later in life. About 50 percent of marriages end in divorce, Over 80 percent of divorced persons marry again. Other variations in household composition--nonfamily households are increasing: unmarried people living with each other; single adult households. Discussion Question: What marketing opportunities are there in meeting the needs of consumers in nontraditional households or families? The wide range and fast growth of household and family types means that marketers must pay attention to them in order to meet their unique needs. : “Traditional” Family-meltdown More Single Adult Households Unmarried Living Together : : : :

More Americans Live Alone,
By 2000 ~ 27.2 million Americans lived alone = 26 % of all households and ~9.7% of the overall U.S. population. Re: Manhattan Solos accounted for 48 percent of all households ..

Women 20-24 who have never married, as a % of all women 20-24.
People getting married later & divorced sooner Women who have never married, as a % of all women 28.4 % 51.2 % 70.3 % 43% of first marriages end in separation or divorce within 15 years.

Our Society is skewing older in age & more diverse in ethnicity & lifestyle….

% Growth in U.S. Ethnic Diversity - 1990-2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 and 2000 censuses. In 2000, 35 million Hispanics were counted, compared with 21 million in 1990, increasing 58 percent. -- Blacks increased 16 to 22% depending on whter include all persons who mentioned black as one of their races or only those who said black alone. --Asians increased 48 to 72 % --American Indians 26 to 110% --Pacific Islander 9 to 140%

# in millions 65+ Source: “Data Base News in Aging,” U.S. Census Bureau,

Life Expectancy 2050 ------- 90+ 2000 ------- 77 1900 ------- 47
Source: Census Bureau, 2000

Years Spent in Retirement
TO 25 YEARS YEARS YEARS

NUCLEAR FAMILY MELTDOWN
The break-up of the “traditional –family & home” coupled w/ the pressure & uncertainties of work has resulted in an increasing tension & feeling of isolation 3.1 million Jobs-Outsourced 43% of first marriages end in separation or divorce within 15 years. 26% people living alone

In response to that isolation millions of individuals are coalescing into clans…”
Clanning= The growing need to join up with / belong to groups to confront a more chaotic world. Faith Popcorn- Brain Reserve

Creation & Facilitation of Virtual Communities: Collection of consumers whose online interactions are based upon shared enthusiasm for & knowledge of a specific consumption activity Communities of Transaction : E-bay, Amazon– Communities of Fantasy: multitude of on-line & wireless games… Communities of Relationship: informational, professional & social interaction- E-harmony

Some of most successful marketers today build & facilitate -Brand Communities
A specialized, non-geographically bound community, based on a structured set of social admirers of a brand; intrinsic connection that members feel toward one another & collective sense of difference from others not in the community e.g., Apple, Harley Davidson, Saturn, ~designer labels/prestige brands…

Build & Faciltate Brand Communities w/ & thru Social Networking
Social network: every individual is a “node” in the jargon of social analysis, with social “links” (channels of communication and social bonds) to other individuals

Social Networking Sites
Social Networking facilitated by Plethora of Internet & Cell-Phone Services Social Networking Sites MySpace hit #1 on web —29 billion pageviews during two weeks in July beating Yahoo & Google (cnn.com)… Facebook …w/ 70+ million users

Technological breakthroughs- Simultaneously destroy long established industries…and

..create new competition & spawn new business enterprises

New Technologies are in & of themselves new products/systems to be marketed
New Tech. impacts production, packaging, channel mgt & sales costs -- thus impacts Pricing Technological advancements in transportation, shipping, vending & e-commerce impact Distribution New Comm. Tech’s impact marketing promotion

#1. Best resource for monitoring technological developments …

#1. Best resource for monitoring business applications of technological developments …

~ Significant Technological Factors / trends …
Recent Past Commercialization of the Internet Present Social & Mobile ComPunications Near Future Transition from client-server to the Cloud & from GUI to LUI

Commercialization of the Internet
Until 1993-The GENERAL PRINCIPLE of Internet Use: “NSFNET Program Backbone services are provided to support research and education in and among US research and education institutions and for private or personal communication incidental to such activities… Use for other purposes, including extensive use for private or personal business, is not acceptable.

COMPUTERS HOSTS IN INTERNET (MILLONS) 25 20 15 10 5 1993- National Information Infrastructure Act is passed-- Internet commercialized 4 1969 JUL. 1989 JUL. 1992 MAR. 1994 JUL. 1995 SEP. 1996 JUL. 1997 SEP. 1991 OCT. 1993 ENER. 1995 ABR 1996 FEB. 1997 NOV. 1997

Current Significant Techno-trend
The New MEdia The new social form made possible by the combination of computation, communication, reputation, and location awareness (p )

New Media SOCIAL MEDIA MOBILE MEDIA

Mobile Commerce: M-commerce
--any NE-commerce done in a wireless environment, Creates opportunity to deliver new services to existing customers and to attract new ones

Mcomm-Applications Shopping: ticket purchases, reservations, comparison shopping Finance - statements, funds transfer, shares trading M-billing - notification, presentation and payment of bills Enterprise access - inventory, shipment/sales updates, access M-care - customer service, payment status, other backroom operations Entertainment – music, games, gambling, interactive multi-player events Messaging - communication and collaboration Travel - scheduling, advisories, reservations Location-smart services - traffic reports, event information & recommendations…..

Revenue streams End-user payment for content
Subscription models: monthly fee and/or per-usage fee Advertising, sponsorship, product placement, etc. End-user payment for access & networking

Mobile is bridging the Digital Divide
5 billion mobile users by *Nokia report Mobile -at the centre of Social Networking and a key driver of UGC. Mobile technology, -being designed for new uses rather than voice. In many countries like India and Japan, a persons 1st connection to Internet -is their mobile!

Weeks Since App Store Launch
App Store Stats On Feb 14th, 2009 – 218 days after launch of the App Store – there were 20,397 apps. Current App Launch Momentum: 1,400 new apps launched/week 400 new games launched/week. 60,000 APPS 1.5 Billion Downloads App Store Momentum App Store Categories 0,397 Applications 27% 14% Number of Apps 3% 9% 3% 4% 8% 4% 7% 5% 6% Weeks Since App Store Launch Note: Analysis, Feb 14, 2009 Note: Analysis, Feb 14, 2009

Shop Savvy

mCommerce Part 1: Where Are We Now? Part 2: The Evolution Part 3: How To Make it Work

New Media SOCIAL MEDIA MOBILE MEDIA

If you are still avoiding social media:

….And what Techno-developments are in our Near Future????

live, communicate,work, produce & consume…
We’re in midst of next great Paradigm Shift… … in the way we live, communicate,work, produce & consume…

Info-Processing, Applications & Storage
2010 2020 2030

Dalles, Ore. —30 acres, lrgest/most soph
Dalles, Ore.—30 acres, lrgest/most soph. computer on earth—10’s of billions/cycles trabytes of data –100 x as the cost—albeit needs 1.8 gigawatts of elect to run –thus the Columbia River- for power & cooling– BTW 100miles up stream Microsoft building theirs--- BOTH close to Harbor PT. WA—Internet Hub

Evolution of the Platform…
1980’s -- The Desktop is the platform 1990’s -- The Browser / Server is the platform 2000’s -- Web Services are the platform 2010’s -- The Semantic Web is the platform 2020’s -- The WebOS is the platform 2030’s -- The Human Body is the platform…? Radar Networks

Web 4.0 Web 3.0 Web 2.0 Web 1.0 PC Era Intelligent Web Web OS
Connections between Information Intelligent Web Web OS Web 4.0 Web 3.0 Intelligent personal agents Semantic Web Distributed Search SWRL OWL SPARQL Semantic Databases Social Web OpenID AJAX Semantic Search ATOM Widgets RSS P2P RDF Web 2.0 Mashups Javascript Office 2.0 Flash SOAP XML Weblogs Social Media Sharing The Web Java HTML HTTP SaaS Social Networking Directory Portals Wikis VR Keyword Search Lightweight Collaboration The PC BBS Gopher Web 1.0 Websites MMO’s MacOS SQL Groupware The Internet SGML Databases Windows File Servers PC Era FTP IRC USENET PC’s File Systems Connections between people Radar Networks

Web 1.0 -Sites tend 2b read-only static pages & files..
.. click a page & wait. were huge, bloated & buggy -The desktop PC & operating system reigned supreme. The paradigm is all about folders & directories. Marketing rooted in Mass Media Techniques Web 1.0 It’s the year We have spent five years just getting people and companies online. There has been an explosion of websites. These sites are for the most part made up of static pages and files. They are read-only sites. No matter how many people are on the site, you really can’t tell. You click a page....and you wait. Both because you have dial-up and because every time you click on something or submit a form, it has to reload a page. You find yourself wishing that it didn’t suck so much - that it worked more like your desktop applications - smooth, fast, simple. But then again, those desktop apps aren’t so great either. They’re huge and bloated and buggy and they never fix the old bugs, they just charge you once every 18 months for a new version that has NEW bugs. But still, the desktop PC and the desktop operating system reigned supreme. Applications got bigger, learning curves got steeper and the percentage of features that people knew how to use got smaller. Enterprise vendors talked about “lock in”, “switching barriers” and many other user-hostile approaches. Speaking of your desktop, you probably filed your mail away in folders and your files too, all carefully sorted so that you could find them again. Because if you couldn’t find it yourself by knowing where it was, you would never see it again.The paradigm was all about folders and directories. Amazon and eBay are two of your favourite applications...but at this point, the only way to connect to them is as a user directly hitting the site. There is no way for developers to connect into their back-end systems...yet. DoubleClick is one of the largest advertising networks on the planet advertisers that can buy banner ads on websites and track you by cookies across the web. AOL has a huge walled garden of content protected from the web and it’s considered “a clean, well lighted place” for those who are too scared of the wild west Internet. This theme of putting data in behind a wall and charging for access is one of the more common place business models. Innovation exploded, ecommerce grew exponentially, supply chain systems like Dell’s took a lot of friction out of commerce. And bleeding edge marketers learned all about Search Engine Optimization, link-sharing, and how to get a web page found in the various search engines on the web. Throughout this period a lot of companies saw that the Web was the future. They built companies that allowed customers to run their businesses online. These were called Application Service Providers. Young entrepreneurs were arrogant and said, “Invest in our company because we’re smart and we’re going to make you a lot of money.” ...and they did. Until the collapse. On the 14th of January, The Nasdaq crashed after 3 solid years of exponential growth. Within a year, 95% of the ASPs were gone, as were the majority of the dot com companies.

Web 1.0 HTML pages viewed thru a browser
Web 2.0: Evolution Web 1.0 HTML pages viewed thru a browser Web 2.0 “content” shared – interactive Exchange; “Read” Mode “Write” & Contribute “Page” Primary content “Post / record” “static” State “dynamic” Web browser Viewed through… Browsers & RSS Readers “Client Server” Architecture “Web Services” Web Coders Content Created by… Everyone “geeks” Domain of… “masses”

The semantic web connects:
Information1 + People2 + Everything else3….. People Groups s Companies Products Services Web Pages Multimedia Documents Events Projects Activities Interests Places Web Web Web 3.0-…

Resource Description Framework (RDF) / W3C Semantic Web Activity

Future Outlook NOW Early-Adoption A few killer apps emerge
Other apps start to integrate 2010 – 2020 Mainstream Adoption Semantics widely used in Web content and apps 2020 + Next big cycle: Reasoning and A.I. The Intelligent Web The Web learns and thinks collectively Radar Networks

The Symbiotic Age A time when computers “speak our language.”
A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other.

Personality Capture & Transhumanity
In the long run, we become seamless w/ our machines. “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” Personality Capture & Transhumanity

The Singularity is Near
Within 25 years, Artificial intelligence will match the range & subtlety of human intelligence Surviving the Singularity

Case study: How Environmental Scan of Macro-environmental trends impacted John Deere Marketing Strategy

Situation Analysis Week 2 BA-343.

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