1. Seventh Meeting February 26 2007 Intense Attribution Period (IAP) 15 November 2006 - 15 April 2007

3. Current Attribution Challenges Enter La Ni ñ a!

4. Current Attribution Challenges Thermocline shallowing in the east Pacific……La Ni ñ a ’ s antecedent?

5. Current Attribution Challenges Back to the Future?

6. Current Attribution Challenges What is the climate impact of the current state of world oceans? OLR

7. Current Attribution Challenges What is the climate impact of the current state of world oceans? OLR

8. 200 mb Z Nov-Jan 2007 OBS GFS-GOGA

9. GFS 200 mb Z Nov-Jan 2007 El Nino Comp

10. CCM3 200 Z Nov-Jan

11. Current Attribution Challenges What is the origin of warm Atlantic SSTs in 2006/2007? Std dev of annual variations= 0.25°C

12. Current Attribution Challenges What is the origin of warm Atlantic SSTs in 2006/2007? January 2007 SST Anomaly (NCEP)

13. Temp Anomaly 5m & 45 m (GODAS)

14. Upward latent heat flux anomaly Dec06 - Jan07 Cooling Ocean

15. Temp Anomaly & Climatology Oct 2006 Ave 5°N-15°N

16. Atlantic SST anomaly 1980-2006 Ave 5N-15N

17. SLP Anomaly Dec06-Jan07

18. Qlh Jan anomaly

19. Current Attribution Challenges What is the climate impact of warm Atlantic SSTs in 2006?

20. Current Attribution Challenges What is the climate impact of warm Atlantic SSTs in 2006-2007?

21. Current Attribution Challenges What are the December 2006 -present pcpn anomalies? Precipitation

22. Current Attribution Challenges How do we explain the success/failure of seasonal outlooks? December - February 2007 Outlook

23. Current Attribution Challenges What are the 1 Jan 2007 -present temp anomalies? Temperature

24. Current Attribution Challenges How do we explain the success/failure of seasonal outlooks? December - February 2007 Outlook

25. Current Attribution Challenges What are the 1 Feb 2007 -present temp anomalies? P&T

26. Current Attribution Challenges How do we explain the success/failure of seasonal outlooks? February-April 2007 Outlook

27. ‘Crashing’ El Niño composites & latest AMJ SWcasts more consistent with it Klaus Wolter - 26feb07 Size of Ni ñ o 3/3.4 drop since early December vs. other cases T&P composites in U.S. for ‘crashing’ El Ni ñ os SWcasts for April-June are trending downward

28. Recent Ni ñ o time series The 2006-07 El Ni ñ o is ‘ crashing ’ fast in key Ni ñ o regions 3 and 3.4. A drop of about 1C in two months is not completely unprecedented, however. Analog years can be defined by requiring an initial (December) SST anomalies of 0.5-2.5C, followed by a 2-3 month drop of 1C (0.9C) for Ni ñ o 3 (3.4), respectively. Fastest drops were in 1964, 66, 73, and 03. Other cases used: 52, 70, 88, and 95.

29. Spring composite for ‘crashing’ El Ni ñ os If you superimpose warming trends in March (large in Western U.S.), March may be rated ‘EC’ for SW, warm elsewhere. Compared to ‘regular’ El Ni ñ o Marches, this one is not as bullish about precip. It is ‘ wet ’ around here mainly due to 2003.

30. Spring composite for ‘crashing’ El Ni ñ os March through May looks quite similar to March in temperature composites, possibly warmer in SE U.S. Note the lack of moisture in New Mexico and Texas!

31. Spring composite for ‘crashing’ El Ni ñ os Classic El Ni ñ o temperature associations (left), and abundant moisture for spring in southwest (bottom).

32. Spring composite for ‘crashing’ El Ni ñ os Temperature-wise, still looks like classic El Ni ñ o (left), but one should superimpose the warming trend. A vestige of above-normal moisture west of here, but mostly under +0.5 sigma, not significant!

33. Spring composite for ‘crashing’ El Ni ñ os Classic El Ni ñ o temperature associations (left), and abundant moisture for spring in southwest (bottom) lingers into April-June.

34. Downward trend in SWcasts