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Www.lcra.org Update on the Drought of 2011 TWCA Mid Year Conference June 16, 2011 Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.lcra.org Update on the Drought of 2011 TWCA Mid Year Conference June 16, 2011 Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA."— Presentation transcript:

1 Update on the Drought of 2011 TWCA Mid Year Conference June 16, 2011 Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA

2

3 Rainfall Since October 1st

4 Rainfall Since October 1st Rainfall Since Oct. 1 Midland 0.16 Marfa 0.25 Fort Stockton 0.08 El Paso 0.45 Brownfield 0.77

5 Rainfall Departure From Normal Since Oct.1

6 Rainfall So Far in June

7 While Many Areas Were in Flood, Texas Couldn’t Buy any Rain

8 One of the Worst Droughts on Record 3 rd Worst Drought in History next to 1918 and rd Worst Drought in History next to 1918 and October through May, the driest of any 8 months on record.October through May, the driest of any 8 months on record. Driest on record for December through May, February through May, and March through May.Driest on record for December through May, February through May, and March through May.

9 Soil Moisture Anomaly

10 An Unusually Warm Start to Spring/Early Summer

11 Latest Drought Monitor

12 Latest Drought Monitor

13 Comparison with Worst of 2009 Drought September 1, 2009

14 La Niña has Ended. Now in Neutral. June 13th

15 Trending Back to La Nia? Trending Back to La Niña? El Nino La Nina

16 NWS July through September Outlook TemperaturePrecipitation

17 Drought Outlook through September

18 WetDry

19 Composite Precipitation June through August

20 Composite Precipitation September through October

21 NAEFS Forecast through July 1st Probability for Greater than 1/2 inch of Rain

22 Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

23 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

24 National Hurricane Center Outlook

25 Colorado State ‘11 Hurricane Outlook “We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. William Gray and Phil Klatzback, Colorado State University, June, 1st Update 16 Named Storms (normal is 9.6) 9 Hurricanes (normal is 5.9) 5 Major Hurricanes (normal is 2.3)

26 Years with Similar Conditions 1971, 2008

27 1971

28 2008

29 2011 Hurricane Season Names

30 Bob Rose Meteorologist, LCRA Bob Rose Meteorologist, LCRA


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