1. Profiling Working Group March 13, 20071 PWG Update Report By Ernie Podraza of Reliant Energy ERCOT PWG Chair for COPS Meeting March 13, 2007

2. Profiling Working Group March 13, 20072

3. Profiling Working Group March 13, 20073 2007 Goals Update 1 Implement new Version 2 ERCOT Profiles. On Schedule. 2 LRS sample selection round two. Designed. 3 New Oil & Gas Profile – BUSOGFLT. TAC on March 8. 4 2007 Annual Validation. LPGRR020 Resolution Target 99%. 5Evaluate the methodology for profile scaling factors (per UFETF Nov. 16) 6 Review 2004, 2005 & 2006 UFE Analysis. 7 Examine ways to accommodate extreme events in Settlement process. 8 Establish Long Term Strategy of Load Profiles including refresh timeline 9 IDR Analysis – 2 issues outstanding from original analysis. 10Review if having more weather stations adds accuracy 11Review if the weighting of weather stations is appropriate

4. Profiling Working Group March 13, 20074 2007 Goals Update 12Review IDR installation procedure language to ensure compliance 13Does having 2 decimals on load profiles significantly affect settlement 14Review LPG language on list based profiles and universality 15PUCT Docket responses to demand response or AMR rule, etc. 16Set up area on PWG web page for key documents 17Annual Review of load profiles as specified in market language 18Analysis to identify new profiles as specified in market language 19Update the TOU procedures on the Load Profiling web site 20Investigate ways to improve Business Profile ID assignments 21Review analysis of DLC demonstration programs. PRR draft pending. 22Review Protocol and LPG language for appropriateness for large Opt-in Entity

5. Profiling Working Group March 13, 20075 2007 Annual Validation Preview

6. 6  2002 Annual Validation Not performed due to 2001 Initial Validation still in progress  2003 Annual Validation 31% - 1.5 million out of 4.9 million ESIIDs  2004 Annual Validation 19% - 1.0 million out of 5.4 million ESIIDs Annual Validation suspended to allow time to improve assignment process  2005 Annual Validation 11% - 0.6 million out of 5.5 million ESIIDs Residential survey administered and new assignment algorithm created 360,000 actually submitted (agreed with new algorithm)  2006 Annual Validation 16% - 0.9 million out of 5.5 million ESIIDs All ESIIDs assigned with new algorithm  2007 Annual Validation (Projected) 5% - 0.3 million out of 5.8 million ESIIDs Fine tuned algorithm based on new load profile models  2008 Annual Validation (Projected) 3% - 0.2 million out of 5.8 million ESIIDs History of Residential Annual Validation

7. Profiling Working Group March 13, 20077

8. Profiling Working Group March 13, 20078

9. 9 Load Research Round 2 Sample Update

10. 10 Load Research Round 2 Sample Update  Round 1 sample points that have migrated to be removed  Round 2 sample size 9,000  Iterative sample allocation to minimize dollar (MWh * MCPE) estimation error  Minimum sample size per Profile Type / Weather Zone combination will be 120  Maximum sample size for Business 400, Residential 600  Known Oil & Gas ESIIDs excluded from sample

11. 11 Load Research Round 2 Sample Update  Primary voltage ESIIDs will be sampled as appropriate Initial analysis indicates 4 cells with 40 sample points each (160 total)  Complete Precision Analysis available at http://www.ercot.com/meetings/pwg/keydocs/2007/0227/ LRS_Precision_Round_2_Analysis_PWG_Feb_27_.ppt http://www.ercot.com/meetings/pwg/keydocs/2007/0227/ LRS_Precision_Round_2_Analysis_PWG_Feb_27_.ppt  Detailed sample design/selection complete, lists provided to TDSPs by end of March  Recorder installations complete by Dec. 2007

12. 12 Load Research Round 2 Sample Design

13. 13 Load Research Rule  PUC Rule §25.131, “Load Profiling and Load Research”  Assigns Load Research Sample Design responsibility to ERCOT  Stakeholder input has been sought and considered  Stakeholder approval process not specified

14. Profiling Working Group March 13, 200714 New ERCOT Load Profile Update Implementation Date 5/15/2007

15. 15 SIRs in Process SIR 10920 -- Transition to new load profiles, Option 3M. P-test almost complete I-test to start week of March 5 th Proceeding according to schedule SIR 11236 -- Create folders for posting of Auxiliary backcasts to TML and ercot.com, and manually populate. Task now being performed as maintenance—no longer a SIR Scheduled to be completed by Wednesday, March 14 th SIR 11240 -- Automated posting of Auxiliary backcasts to TML and ercot.com. Analysis is underway To be completed prior to May 15th

16. March 13, 200716 -- Auxiliary Backcasted Load Profiles -- What will postings look like?

17. 17 Introduction New Load Profile models are scheduled to be implemented on May 15, 2007. Profile transition plan Option 3M allows for a mixture of old and new profiles to be used in settlement. Auxiliary backcasted load profiles (from new models) are scheduled to start posting to the TML and ercot.com on March 14, 2007. A Market Notice will be sent out 7 to 10 days before actual posting begins.

18. 18 Introduction For trade date 05/15/07 onward, profiles generated from new models will be posted in the ‘primary’ folder and profiles from old models in the ‘auxiliary’ folder. Profiles from old models would be posted in auxiliary folder for 60 days and archived on ercot.com afterward.

19. 19 ext.(03-17-2007 15:48:23 ).Bcst03162007_aux.csv ext.(03-16-2007 15:47:43 ).Bcst03152007_aux.csv ext.(03-15-2007 15:47:48 ).Bcst03142007_aux.csv ext.(03-14-2007 15:48:23 ).Bcst03132007_aux.csv Auxiliary Backcasted Profiles Extract new folder Auxiliary Backcasted Load Profiles

20. 20 Auxiliary Backcasted Load Profiles new link 20070317.154823.Bcst03162007_aux.csv 20070316.154743.Bcst03152007_aux.csv 20070315.154748.Bcst03142007_aux.csv 20070314.154823.Bcst03132007_aux.csv Auxiliary Backcasted Profiles Extract

21. Profiling Working Group March 13, 200721 LPGRR018 Default Residential Profile Segment and Clean Up of Valid Profile IDs Tab

22. Profiling Working Group March 13, 200722 Default Residential Profile Segment and Clean Up of Valid Profile IDs Tab VOTE PWG requests the following motion: That COPS recommend to the TAC approval of LPGRR018

23. Profiling Working Group March 13, 200723 Questions? PWG meets on the fourth Tuesday of the Month thru Oct.