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-- Transition to New Load Profiles -- What to Post? COPS December 11, 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "-- Transition to New Load Profiles -- What to Post? COPS December 11, 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 -- Transition to New Load Profiles -- What to Post? COPS December 11, 2006

2 2 Introduction New Load Profile models anticipated to be implemented on May 15, Profile transition plan Option 3M allows for a mixture of old and new profiles to be used in settlement. On 12/07/06, DEWG conference call discussed numerous options for posting profiles to ERCOT.com and TML (see Appendix)

3 3 Forecasted Load Profiles DEWG consensus was to: Post forecasted load profiles generated only from new models from May 15 th onward. So what would be in the files posted on ERCOT.com and the TML?

4 4 Forecasted Load Profiles A look at ERCOT.com on May 17, 2007 (New models anticipated to be implemented for May 15, 2007) Backcasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles FcstPrfl csv FcstPrfl csv FcstPrfl csv FcstPrfl csv FcstPrfl csv FcstPrfl csv Forecasts for May 17, 18, 19, 20 from NEW models Forecasts for May 16, 17, 18, 19 from NEW models Forecasts for May 15, 16, 17, 18 from NEW models Forecasts for May 14 from OLD models, 15, 16, 17 from NEW Forecasts for May 13, 14 from OLD models, 15, 16 from NEW Forecasts for May 12, 13, 14 from OLD models, 15 from NEW Files on the TML would also be as shown.

5 5 Backcasted Load Profiles DEWG consensus was: For trade date 05/15/07 onward, to post profiles generated from new models in ‘primary’ folder and profiles from old models in ‘auxiliary’ folder. So what would be in the files posted on ERCOT.com and the TML? Profiles from old models would be posted in auxiliary folder for 90 days and archived on ERCOT.com afterward. Backcasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles Auxiliary profiles posted here. Similar folder on TML. File names would be followed by “_aux”.

6 6 Backcasted Load Profiles BcstPrfl csv BcstPrfl csv BcstPrfl csv BcstPrfl csv BcstPrfl csv BcstPrfl csv Backcast for trade date 05/16/07, from NEW models Backcast for trade date 05/15/07, from NEW models Backcast for trade date 05/14/07, from OLD models Backcast for trade date 05/13/07, from OLD models Backcast for trade date 05/12/07, from OLD models Backcast for trade date 05/11/07, from OLD models A look at ERCOT.com on May 17, 2007 (New models anticipated to be implemented for May 15, 2007) Backcasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles Primary Files on the TML would also be as shown.

7 7 Backcasted Load Profiles Backcasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles Backcast for trade date 05/16/07, from OLD models Backcast for trade date 05/15/07, from OLD models Backcast for trade date 05/14/07, from NEW models Backcast for trade date 05/13/07, from NEW models Backcast for trade date 05/12/07, from NEW models Backcast for trade date 05/11/07, from NEW models BcstPrfl _aux.csv BcstPrfl _aux.csv BcstPrfl _aux.csv BcstPrfl _aux.csv BcstPrfl _aux.csv BcstPrfl _aux.csv (Auxiliary) A look at ERCOT.com on May 17, 2007 (New models anticipated to be implemented for May 15, 2007) Auxiliary Files on the TML would also be as shown.

8 8 Questions or Comments

9 9 Appendix Options Considered by DEWG

10 -- Transition to New Load Profiles -- What to Post? DEWG December 7, 2006

11 11 Introduction New Load Profile models anticipated to be implemented on May 15, Profile transition plan Option 3M allows for a mixture of old and new profiles to be used in settlement. How should both old and new load profiles be posted to ERCOT.com and the TML? In this presentation: “Primary” profiles refer to those generated using the old models for trade dates thru May 14 th, and for profiles generated using the new models for trade dates on or after May 15 th. “Auxiliary” profiles refer to converse of the “primary” profiles. A2

12 12 Forecasted Load Profiles Option F4: Post only new profiles starting May 15 th Option F1: Post old and new profiles in separate folders May 12 th posting would contain new profiles for May 15 th, and so on... Profiles from old models would be posted in separate (auxiliary) folder for 60 days. Forecasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles Auxiliary profiles posted here. Similar folder on TML. File names would be same as primary load profiles. Option F3: Post old and new profiles with channel numbers Profiles would be posted in a single file. Channel placement options on next slide. Option F2: Post old and new profiles w/ different file names FcstPrfl _1.csv FcstPrfl _2.csv Channel number (in same folder) A3

13 13 Forecasted Load Profiles Option F3: Post old and new profiles with channel numbers Option F3a Option F3b Option F3c channel number as part of Profile Type and Weather Zone combo channel number in new field channel number at end of row Channel ‘1’ would refer to the primary profiles and channel ‘2’ would refer to the auxiliary profiles. A4

14 14 Backcasted Load Profiles Option B1: Post old and new profiles in separate folders Profiles from old models would be posted in separate (auxiliary) folder for 60 days and archived on ERCOT.com afterward. Backcasted (Auxiliary) Load Profiles Auxiliary profiles posted here. Similar folder on TML. File names would be same as primary load profiles. Option B3: Post old and new profiles with channel numbers Channel ‘1’ would refer to the primary profiles and channel ‘2’ would refer to the auxiliary profiles. Channel placement options on next slide. Option B2: Post old and new profiles w/ different file names BcstPrfl _1.csv BcstPrfl _2.csv (in same folder) Channel number A5

15 15 Backcasted Load Profiles Option B3: Post old and new profiles with channel numbers Option B3a Option B3b Option B3c channel number as part of Profile Type and Weather Zone combo channel number in new field channel number at end of row Channel ‘1’ would refer to the primary profiles and channel ‘2’ would refer to the auxiliary profiles. A6

16 16 Forecasts Option F1 Option F2 Option F3a Option F3b Option F3c Option F4 Making a Choice Backcasts Option B1 Option B2 Option B3a Option B3b Option B3c A7

17 17 Questions or Comments A8


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