1. Improving Education: A triumph of hope over experience Robert Coe Edge Hill University: 6th Annual Education Conference, 9 July 2014

2. ∂ A triumph of hope over experience  Experience –Have educational standards really risen? –School improvement: Isn’t it time there was some? –Can we identify effective schools and teachers? –Is ‘evidence-based’ practice and policy the answer?  Hope –So what should we do (that hasn’t failed yet)? 2 www.cem.org/attachments/publications/ ImprovingEducation2013.pdf

3. Have educational standards really risen? 3

4. ∂ 4

5. ∂ 5 Equivalent change in GCSE grades

6. ∂ 6 (Updated from Coe, 2007)

7. ∂ ICCAMS (Hodgen et al) 7

8. School improvement: Isn’t it time there was some? 8

9. ∂ 1.Wait for a bad year or choose underperforming schools to start with. Most things self-correct or revert to expectations (you can claim the credit for this). 2.Take on any initiative, and ask everyone who put effort into it whether they feel it worked. No-one wants to feel their effort was wasted. 3.Define ‘improvement’ in terms of perceptions and ratings of teachers. DO NOT conduct any proper assessments – they may disappoint. 4.Only study schools or teachers that recognise a problem and are prepared to take on an initiative. They’ll probably improve whatever you do. Mistaking School Improvement (1) (Coe, 2009)

10. ∂ 5.Conduct some kind of evaluation, but don’t let the design be too good – poor quality evaluations are much more likely to show positive results. 6.If any improvement occurs in any aspect of performance, focus attention on that rather than on any areas or schools that have not improved or got worse (don’t mention them!). 7.Put some effort into marketing and presentation of the school. Once you start to recruit better students, things will improve. Mistaking School Improvement (2) (Coe, 2009)

11. Can we identify effective schools and teachers? 11

12. ∂ Problems with school effectiveness research  ‘Value-added’ is not effectiveness (Gorard, 2010; Dumay, Coe & Anumendem, 2013)  Characteristics of ‘effective schools’ –‘strong leadership’, ‘high expectations’, ‘positive climate’ and a ‘focus on teaching and learning’ –Too vague –‘Effects’ are tiny anyway (Scheerens, 2000, 2012)  Correlations, not causes (Coe & Fitz-Gibbon, 1998) –Can ‘effective’ strategies be implemented? –If so, do they lead to improvement? 12

13. Is ‘evidence-based’ practice and policy the answer? 13

14. ∂ Toolkit of Strategies to Improve Learning The Sutton Trust-EEF Teaching and Learning Toolkit http://www.educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk/toolkit/

15. ∂ Impact vs cost Cost per pupil Effect Size (months gain) £0 0 8 £1000 Meta-cognitive Peer tutoring Early Years 1-1 tuition Homework (Secondary) Teaching assistants Mentoring Summer schools After school Aspirations Performance pay Smaller classes Setting Most promising for raising attainment May be worth it Small effects / high cost Feedback Phonics Homework (Primary) Collaborative Small gp tuition Parental involvement Individualised learning ICT Behaviour Social www.educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk/toolkit

16. ∂  Some things that are popular or widely thought to be effective are probably not worth doing –Ability grouping (setting); After-school clubs; Teaching assistants; Smaller classes; Performance pay; Raising aspirations  Some things look ‘promising’ –Effective feedback; Meta-­cognitive and self regulation strategies; Peer tutoring/peer ‐ assisted learning strategies; Homework Key messages

17. ∂ Clear, simple advice:  Choose from the top left  Go back to school and do it 17 For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong H.L. Mencken

18. ∂ Why not?  We have been doing some of these things for a long time, but have generally not seen improvement  Research evidence is problematic –Sometimes the existing evidence is thin –Research studies may not reflect real life –Context and ‘support factors’ may matter (Cartwright and Hardie, 2012)  Implementation is problematic –We may think we are doing it, but are we doing it right? –We do not know how to get large groups of teachers and schools to implement these interventions in ways that are faithful, effective and sustainable 18

19. So what should we do (that hasn’t failed yet)? 19

20. ∂ Four steps to improvement  Think hard about learning  Invest in effective professional development  Evaluate teaching quality  Evaluate impact of changes

21. 1. Think hard about learning

22. ∂ Impact vs cost Cost per pupil Effect Size (months gain) £0 0 8 £1000 Meta-cognitive Peer tutoring Early Years 1-1 tuition Homework (Secondary) Teaching assistants Mentoring Summer schools After school Aspirations Performance pay Smaller classes Setting Most promising for raising attainment May be worth it Small effects / high cost Feedback Phonics Homework (Primary) Collaborative Small gp tuition Parental involvement Individualised learning ICT Behaviour Social www.educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk/toolkit

23. ∂ True or false? 1.Reducing class size is one of the most effective ways to increase learning [evidence] [evidence] 2.Differentiation and ‘personalised learning’ resources maximise learning [evidence] [evidence] 3.Praise encourages learners and helps them persist with hard tasks [evidence] [evidence] 4.Technology supports learning by engaging and motivating learners [evidence] [evidence] 5.The best way to raise attainment is to enhance motivation and interest [evidence] [evidence] 23

24. ∂ Poor Proxies for Learning  Students are busy: lots of work is done (especially written work)  Students are engaged, interested, motivated  Students are getting attention: feedback, explanations  Classroom is ordered, calm, under control  Curriculum has been ‘covered’ (ie presented to students in some form)  (At least some) students have supplied correct answers, even if they –Have not really understood them –Could not reproduce them independently –Will have forgotten it by next week (tomorrow?) –Already knew how to do this anyway 24

25. ∂ Learning happens when people have to think hard A better proxy for learning?

26. ∂ Hard questions about your school  How many minutes does an average pupil on an average day spend really thinking hard?  Do you really want pupils to be ‘stuck’ in your lessons?  If they knew the right answer but didn’t know why, how many pupils would care? 26

27. 2. Invest in effective CPD

28. ∂ How do we get students to learn hard things? Eg  Place value  Persuasive writing  Music composition  Balancing chemical equations Explain what they should do Demonstrate it Get them to do it (with gradually reducing support) Provide feedback Get them to practise until it is secure Assess their skill/ understanding

29. ∂ How do we get teachers to learn hard things? Eg  Using formative assessment  Assertive discipline  How to teach algebra Explain what they should do

30. ∂  Intense: at least 30 contact hours, preferably 50  Sustained: over at least two terms  Content focused: on teachers’ knowledge of subject content & how students learn it  Active: opportunities to try it out & discuss  Supported: external feedback and networks to improve and sustain  Evidence based: promotes strategies supported by robust evaluation evidence What CPD helps students? Do you do this?

31. 3. Evaluate teaching quality

32. ∂ Every teacher needs to improve, not because they are not good enough, but because they can be even better. Dylan Wiliam

33. ∂ Why monitor teaching quality?  Good evidence of (potential) benefit from –Performance feedback (Coe, 2002) –Target setting (Locke & Latham, 2006) –Accountability (Coe & Sahlgren, 2014)  Individual teachers matter most  Teachers typically stop improving after 3-5 years  Everyone can improve  Judging real quality/effectiveness is very hard –Multidimensional –Not easily visible –Confounded 33 “… effective evaluation is good for pupils and good for teachers. It can improve the quality of teaching, provided it is accompanied by good feedback, and it can lead to better results for pupils and improved learning” (Murphy, 2013)

34. ∂ Monitoring the quality of teaching  Progress in assessments –Quality of assessment matters (cem.org/blog)cem.org/blog –Regular, high quality assessment across curriculum (InCAS, INSIGHT)InCAS INSIGHT  Classroom observation –Much harder than you think! (cem.org/blog)cem.org/blog –Multiple observations/ers, trained and QA’d  Student ratings –Extremely valuable, if done properly (http://www.cem.org/latest/student-evaluation-of-teaching-can- it-raise-attainment-in-secondary-schools)http://www.cem.org/latest/student-evaluation-of-teaching-can- it-raise-attainment-in-secondary-schools  Other –Parent ratings feedback –Student work scrutiny –Colleague perceptions (360) –Self assessment –Pedagogical content knowledge 34

35. ∂ Lesson Observation 1.Two teachers observe the same lesson, one rates it ‘Inadequate’. What is the probability the other will agree? a) 10% b) 40% c) 60% d) 80% 2.An observer judges a lesson ‘Outstanding’. What is the probability that pupils are really making sustained, outstanding progress? a) 5% b) 30% c) 50% d) 70% 35 www.cem.org/blog

36. ∂ Evidence-Based Lesson Observation  Behaviour and organisation –Maximise time on task, engagement, rules & consequences  Classroom climate –Respect, quality of interactions, failure OK, high expectations, growth mindset  Learning –What made students think hard? –Quality of: exposition, demonstration, scaffolding, feedback, practice, assessment –What provided evidence of students’ understanding? –How was this responded to? (Feedback) 36

37. 4. Evaluateimpact of changes

38. ∂ A research-engaged school  Draws on knowledge and understanding of research to inform –Pedagogical practice –Decisions about strategy and policies –Attempts to implement and embed more effective practices  Robustly evaluates –Its ongoing performance on a range of outcomes –The impact of any changes made 38

39. ∂ RISE: Research-leads Improving Students’ Education  With Alex Quigley, John Tomsett, Stuart Kime  Based around York  RCT: 20 school leaders trained in research, 20 controls  Contact: aj.quigley@huntington-ed.org.uk 39

40. ∂  Clear, well defined, replicable intervention  Good assessment of appropriate outcomes  Well-matched comparison group EEF DIY Evaluation Guide Key elements of good evaluation What could you evaluate?

41. ∂ A triumph of hope over experience  Experience –So far, we haven’t cracked it: don’t keep doing the same things  Hope –Think hard about learning –Invest in effective professional development –Evaluate teaching quality –Evaluate impact of changes 41