1. Tony Bates Associates Ltd 1 EDEN Conference Helsinki 2005 Why e-learning has failed - and why it will succeed

2. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 2 overview e-learning projects that crashed and burned: why did they fail? e-learning projects that crashed and burned: why did they fail? slow adoption of e-learning in distance education slow adoption of e-learning in distance education key problems with e-learning key problems with e-learning cost-effectiveness of e-learning cost-effectiveness of e-learning need for strategic use and focus need for strategic use and focus why it will succeed why it will succeed

3. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 3 Crashed and burned Late 1990’s: e-learning frenzy e-learning for profit; global markets Merrill Lynch: Moe and Blodgett Cisco CEO: ‘e-learning next killer application’

4. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 4 Crashed and burned for-profit spin-off degree programs: New York University Online, Temple, E- Cornell, Open University of United States for-profit spin-off degree programs: New York University Online, Temple, E- Cornell, Open University of United States for-profit consortia: Cardean, Fathom, Global University Alliance, Universitas21 for-profit consortia: Cardean, Fathom, Global University Alliance, Universitas21 UK e-universityUK e-university US$20 million lost on average; $100 million by UK e-University

5. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 5 Why did they fail? ethical and credibility issues e.g. Universitas 21 Global degree transcripts have logos of all 19 universities degree transcripts have logos of all 19 universities Thomson chooses authors Thomson chooses authors self-accreditation (U21 Pedagogica) self-accreditation (U21 Pedagogica) U21 Global degree not recognized by member institutions U21 Global degree not recognized by member institutions

6. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 6 Why did they fail? bad business plans: KPMG, PriceWaterhouse bad business plans: KPMG, PriceWaterhouse over-estimated market for non- credit over-estimated market for non- credit under-estimated costs: product not process; mass production model; learner support under-estimated under-estimated costs: product not process; mass production model; learner support under-estimated ignored expertise of ‘traditional’ DE ignored expertise of ‘traditional’ DE ‘quarantined’ tenured faculty ‘quarantined’ tenured faculty

7. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 7 E-learning and distance education: public sector (2003) Public sector Print + broadcasting:5.0 million Fully online:0.6 million Total:5.6 million E-learners on campus:3-4 million Private e-learners:3.4 million Private distance4.0 million

8. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 8 Slow public sector development 10 years since first web-based courses but: 12 per cent of DE fully online; most ‘web-supplemented’ 12 per cent of DE fully online; most ‘web-supplemented’ only one public university fully online only one public university fully online UK Open University: 2003, 17 courses out of 500 fully online UK Open University: 2003, 17 courses out of 500 fully online >70% of all fully online courses in private sector >70% of all fully online courses in private sector

9. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 9 Why so slow? (in increasing order of importance) 1. Access 2. Need to change pedagogy 3. Lack of specialists 4. Lower economies of scale 5. Lack of business planning/CBA 6. Inventory 7. Leadership + institutional inertia

10. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 10 Consequences some conventional universities have moved faster some conventional universities have moved faster e-learning seen as different from DE; DE a sub-set of e-learninge-learning seen as different from DE; DE a sub-set of e-learning e-learning about competitiveness and profit, not accesse-learning about competitiveness and profit, not access govts. see DTUs as obsoletegovts. see DTUs as obsolete

11. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 11 Problems with e-learning access IS still an issue in many countries/for some target groups;access IS still an issue in many countries/for some target groups; economies of scale still important economies of scale still important quality is an issue; can learn from DEquality is an issue; can learn from DE e-learning requires major structural changes in conventional universities e-learning requires major structural changes in conventional universities DE students have special needs not well served by campus institutionsDE students have special needs not well served by campus institutions technology constantly changingtechnology constantly changing

12. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 12 Concerns about cost-effectiveness (from Bates, 2005) Cost per student study hour No. of students per course per year TV Radio Print Online 3012562512503000 $5 $10 $15 $20

13. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 13TV Costs of print vs online 3012562512503000 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 Online OU print DM print No. of students per course per year Cost per student study hour For 3,000 Online: $2.18 DM print: $1.37 OU print: $0.65 Difference over 5 years: $750,000

14. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 14 Economics of technology-based teaching No. of students per course (over 5 years) Cost per student Print Face-to-face Fully online 201002002000 Web supplemented Instructor/student: 1:30 Mixed mode

15. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 15 Why e-learning will succeed: it can meet the needs of a knowledge- based society Knowledge-based society: work and life dependent on information and knowledge, e.g. financial services, computing, entertainment, health, education industries dependent on finding, analyzing, applying information industries dependent on finding, analyzing, applying information knowledge-base constantly changing knowledge-base constantly changing workers need to be lifelong learners workers need to be lifelong learners

16. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 16 Advantages of e-learning new teaching methods: from information transmission to knowledge construction new teaching methods: from information transmission to knowledge construction Creative thinking, critical thinking, problem- solving, collaborative learning, information management resulting in learning how to learn (after university) resulting in learning how to learn (after university) but not always used this way but not always used this way

17. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 17 Selective use of e-learning Two key parameters: Learners: novice vs experienced dependent vs independent full-time vs part-time motivationSkills/competencies: psycho-motor vs cognitive what else? we don’t know

18. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 18 Importance of distance education and e-learning for lifelong learners lifelong learners need delivery to work or home lifelong learners need delivery to work or home Internet provides access to new knowledge and research Internet provides access to new knowledge and research already have ‘hands-on’ skills from campus experience already have ‘hands-on’ skills from campus experience community of practice: lifelong learners have specialist knowledge community of practice: lifelong learners have specialist knowledge

19. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 19 Lifelong learners have different needs delivery to work or home delivery to work or home just-in-time just-in-time small ‘chunks’ but leading to credentials (degrees/diplomas) small ‘chunks’ but leading to credentials (degrees/diplomas) latest knowledge but adapted to the learner’s context latest knowledge but adapted to the learner’s context sharing/testing knowledge with peers sharing/testing knowledge with peers

20. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 20 why conventional universities need to pay attention to lifelong learning universities overwhelmed by high school entrants; don’t want more students universities overwhelmed by high school entrants; don’t want more students new funding model needed for lifelong learners: Self-financed programs hiring new research professors new funding model needed for lifelong learners: Self-financed programs hiring new research professors lifelong learners previously subsidized, earning good money, able and willing to pay full cost lifelong learners previously subsidized, earning good money, able and willing to pay full cost

21. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 21 e-Learning can be profitable Profit in niche markets, e.g. University of Phoenix Online: 26,000 students, vocational corporate e-learning: e.g. SkillSoft: $250 million per annum MBAs (Queens, Athabasca) UBC Master in Educational Technology UOC Master in e-Learning but who pays for under-educated?

22. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 22 Conclusions e-learning must be used strategically e-learning must be used strategically lifelong learners major new market essential for economic development lifelong learners major new market essential for economic development major changes needed in both conventional and distance institutions major changes needed in both conventional and distance institutions but e-learning will succeed because it develops skills needed in knowledge-based societies but e-learning will succeed because it develops skills needed in knowledge-based societies

23. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 23 References Bates, A. 2005 Technology, e- learning and distance education London: Routledge Peters, O. 2003 Distance Education in Transition Oldenburg: Univ. of Oldenburg Bates, A. and Poole, G. 2003 Effective Teaching with Technology in Higher Education San Francisco: Jossey-Bass

24. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 24 What is e-learning? face-to- face no e-learning fully e-learning class- room aids mixed mode (less face-to- face + e- learning) dis- tance edu- cation distributed learning blended learning lap- top pro- grams

25. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 25 Choosing technology: ACTIONS model A ccess C ost T eaching requirements I nteraction O rganization N ovelty S peed

26. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 26 Changing technologies 1. re-usable content (learning objects) 2. social software (wikis, blogs) 3. e-portfolios 4. synchronous: web conferencing 5. student tools to create/manage own web work difficult to build stable, quality controlled, ‘managed’ systems

27. © Tony Bates Associates Ltd 27 Advantages of e-learning direct interaction between teacher and learner direct interaction between teacher and learner faster feedback faster feedback skills/competencies needed in a knowledge-based society: information management; knowledge construction; independent learning skills/competencies needed in a knowledge-based society: information management; knowledge construction; independent learning economies of scope economies of scope