1. Have I been doing Behavioural OR for the Last 20 Years? Stewart Robinson Professor of Management Science Associate Dean Research School of Business and Economics

2. Outline To develop a better understanding of behavioural OR.  My research  Examples of modelling behaviour  Examples of understanding behaviour with models  Some key elements of BOR

3. My Research Simulation practice Simulation conceptual modelling Simulation output analysis Facilitated modelling with simulation Comparison of DES and SD Agent-based simulation Verification and validation of simulation models The quality of operational research interventions Modelling human decision- making and interaction

4. A Lorry Loading Bay Problem Modelling Behaviour Part I: 1995

5. A Lorry Loading Bay Problem: Decision tree derived from example cases using a simulation model Modelling Behaviour Part I: 1995

6. Investigation of the operations system Understanding the process and the decision- making required Elicit knowledge Decisions taken under scenarios (data sets held for each decision-maker) Trains Represent the decision-making strategy of each decision-maker Provide input to the VIS in place of the decision-makers Generate decision- making scenarios Predict performance of decision-making strategies Seek improvements VIS model AI model Data sets Stage 1 Stage 5 Stage 4 Stage 3 Stage 2 Modelling Behaviour Part II: Knowledge Based Improvement

10. Axelrod Culture Model: Diffusion of Ideas 12345678910 11_CDD2_CDD3_CDD4_CDD5_EBA6_CDD7_CDD8_CDD9_CDD10_CDD 211_CDD12_CDD13_CDD14_CDD15_EBA16_CDD17_CDD18_CDD19_FEE20_CDD 321_CDD22_CDD23_CDD24_EBA25_EBA26_CDD27_CDD28_CDD29_FEE30_CDD 431_CDD32_CDD33_CDD34_CDD35_EBA36_AFC37_AFC38_CDD39_FEE40_FEE 5 41_CDD42_CDD43_CDD44_CDD45_CDD46_CDD47_AFC48_AFC49_FEE50_FEE 651_CDD52_CDD53_CDD54_CDD55_CDD56_CDD57_AFC58_AFC59_FEE60_CDD 761_CDD62_CDD63_CDD64_CDD65_CDD66_CDD67_CDD68_AFC69_CDD70_CDD 871_CDD72_CDD73_CDD74_CDD75_CDD76_CDD77_CDD78_CDD79_CDD80_CDD 981_CDD82_CDD83_CDD84_CDD85_CDD86_CDD87_CDD88_CDD89_CDD90_CDD 1091_CDD92_CDD93_CDD94_CDD95_CDD96_CDD97_CDD98_CDD99_CDD100_CDD Modelling Behaviour Part III: Agent Based Modelling

11. Agent Based Simulation of Supply Chains Material Funds Information Supplier Retailer Market demand w(q) w q Min{q,D} p D Modelling Behaviour Part III: Agent Based Modelling

12. Efficiency scores Suppliers Retailers F1F2F1F2 RET 1 RET 2 RET 3 RET 4 RET OPT SUP 1 0.150 (0.001)0.527 (0.006)0.397 (0.003)0.375 (0.003)0.320 (0.001) SUP 2 0.434 (0.002)0.778 (0.008)0.636 (0.005)0.461 (0.005)0.644 (0.005) SUP 3 0.708 (0.005)0.968 (0.012)0.851 (0.009)0.585 (0.008)0.849 (0.008) SUP OPT 0.550 (0.003)0.878 (0.010)0.734 (0.007)0.507 (0.006)0.741 (0.006) Modelling Behaviour Part III: Agent Based Modelling

13. Behaviour with Models Part I: Model Building

14. Behaviour with Models Part II: Model Using

15. Behaviour with Models Part III: Managers, Decision-Making and Models

16. Have I been doing Behavioural OR for the Last 20 Years? Eliciting and modelling human behaviour Agent-based modelling Understanding model building Understanding model use Understanding how decisions are made based on models Modelling Behaviour Behaviour with Models