1. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Impacts of Climate Change on Agro- climatic Indices in Eastern Canada Sam Gameda and Andy Bootsma Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Ottawa

2. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada CGCM1 Mean Temperature Change Summer - JJA 2050s Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group

3. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada CGCM1 Precipitation Change Summer - JJA 2050s Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group

4. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada GCMs Predict Increases in Climate Variables (e.g. Temperature, Precipitation) How will these changes affect Agro-climatic indices? What are the potential impacts on crop production?

5. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Atlantic Canada

6. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Average Crop Heat Units Crop Heat Units (CHU)

7. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Effective Growing Degree Days (EGDD)

8. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Water Deficit

9. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Potential ACI changes: Agro-climatic index Increase under Climate Change CHU 500-700 units EGDD ~ 400 units Water Deficit 25-50 mm

10. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Implications for Atlantic Canada Significant potential for Large-scale: expansion in corn and soybean areas Reduction of areas under small-grain cereals (e.g. barley)

11. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Production scenario Yield (t/ha) Area (ha) Production (‘000 tonnes) Corn Present5.6 2,30013 2040-697.030,000210 Soybeans Present2.3 3,5008 2040-693.020,00060 Barley Present3.055,000165 2040-693.1525,00079

12. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Quebec & Ontario

13. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada

14. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada

15. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada

16. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada

17. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada

18. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Potential ACI changes: Agro-climatic Index CurrentUnder Climate Change CHU3400-3700>5200 GDD1750-22502750-3500 GSSEarly/Mid AprilEarly/Late March GSELate Oct/Mid NovMid/Late Nov GSL180-225 days210-270 days Water DeficitLittle change expected

19. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Implications for Quebec & Ontario Some areas presently marginal or unsuitable for grain corn and soybean production will become suitable for these crops. Areas presently well-suited for grain corn and soybean production will be suited for longer- season hybrids, with potentially higher yields

20. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Some Considerations These findings are based on comparisons of current 30-year climate normals (averages) with those from an equivalent future 30-year period Significant changes in variability and extreme events are anticipated under climate change

21. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada (Source: CGCM1A - Kharin and Zwiers 2000) Projected 24-h Rainfall Events Averaged over Canada

22. Agriculture and Agriculture et Agri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada Summary Likely consequences of climate change on agriculture in Eastern Canada: Significant increases in areas under corn and soybean in Atlantic Canada. Significant increase in yields of corn and soybean in Quebec and Ontario Expected increases in variability and extreme events could have significant impact on seasonal variability and risks to production