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The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information.

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Presentation on theme: "The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Scenarios for Atlantic Canada

2 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada [Source: Harvey (2000): Global Warming: The Hard Science] Climate Processes

3 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada

4 GCM Characteristics GFDL-R15 (7.5° x 4.4°; 500 x 600km) CCSR/NIES (5.625° x 5.625°) CSIROMk2b (5.625° x 3.25°) CGCM1 & 2 (3.75° x 3.75°) HadCM2 & 3 (3.75° x 2.5°) GFDL-R30 (3.75° x 2.24°) ECHAM4 & NCAR-PCM (2.8125° x °; 300 x 300 km) Increasing resolution

5 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Land-sea masks

6 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada GCM Orography

7 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada How well do GCMs perform? MIP: Model intercomparison projects AMIP: Atmospheric model CMIP: Coupled model PMIP - mid-Holocene (approx BP); Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 BP)

8 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Temperature [Source: IPCC TAR]

9 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Precipitation [Source: IPCC TAR]

10 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Natural Forcing Only [Source: IPCC TAR] Detection and Attribution

11 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Anthropogenic Forcing Only Detection and Attribution [Source: IPCC TAR]

12 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada All Forcings [Source: IPCC TAR] Detection and Attribution

13 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada IPCC TAR Conclusions GCMs provide credible simulations of both annual mean climate and the climatological seasonal cycle over broad continental scales. Clouds and humidity remain sources of significant uncertainty, but improvements in simulations of these have been made. Analysis of, and confidence in, extreme events simulated within climate models is emerging, particularly for storm tracks and storm frequency. Performance in simulating ENSO and NAO has improved.

14 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada GCM evolution EQUILIBRIUM EXPERIMENTS (1980s) Time (10 years) Global-mean temperature (°C) TT 2xCO 2 1xCO 2

15 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada GCM Evolution COLD START WARM START Climate change integration Global-mean temperature (°C) t2t2 t1t1 (late 1980s) (early 1990s) TRANSIENT EXPERIMENTS

16 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada CGCM2 HadCM3 ECHAM4 CSIROMk2b CCSR/NIES GFDL-R30 NCAR-PCM A1FI - HadCM3, CCSR/NIES A1T - CCSR/NIES A1 - CCSR/NIES, CSIROMk2b HadCM3 CSIROMk2b CCSR/NIES

17 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Maritimes: land only

18 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada SRES A2: Winter 2050s Temperature Change (°C)

19 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Temperature Change (°C) SRES A2: Summer 2050s

20 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada SRES A2: Winter 2050s Precipitation Change (%)

21 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Precipitation Change (%) SRES A2: Summer 2050s

22 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada SRES B2: Summer 2050s Precipitation Change (%)

23 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Spatial Scale Issues


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