Presentation on theme: "Climate Trends and Wheat Straw Supplies Dave Sauchyn, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina North American Mushroom Conference,"— Presentation transcript:
Climate Trends and Wheat Straw Supplies Dave Sauchyn, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina North American Mushroom Conference, Vancouver, 23 June 2013
Climate: from klima (ancient Greek) meaning inclination: a tendency, characteristic likelihood climate is the statistics of weather “weather is what we get, climate is what we expect” What is climate change? Climate change: a statistically significant variation in the mean climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (decades or longer).
The level of the most important heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, has passed a long-feared milestone, scientists reported Friday, reaching a concentration not seen on the Earth for millions of years. Scientific monitors reported that the gas had reached an average daily level that surpassed 400 parts per million – just an odometer moment in one sense, but also a sobering reminder that decades of efforts to bring human- produced emissions under control are faltering.
Thanks to: Lawrence Zimmermann, Highline Mushrooms (Ontario) Burton Loveday, Loveday Mushrooms (Manitoba) Mike Manion, All Seasons Mushrooms (Alberta & BC) Don Needham, Hy-Tech Compost (U.S.)
Planting intentions for 2013 in M acres (Statistics Canada)
http://storymaps.esri.com/stories/feedingtheworld/ Global Crop Production
Observed Long-Term Trends for Agroclimatic Conditions in Canada Qian et al. 2010
EGDD: effective growing degree-days computed by applying a day-length factor to GDD Qian et al. 2010 GSS: growing season start GSE: growing season end
Percentage of stations showing a significant positive trend (++) or a significant negative trend (--) EGDD: effective growing degree-days computed by applying a day-length factor to GDD
We find a significant increasing trend in the length of the growing season and in the associated available heat. The winter temperature is less damaging and the frost-free periods are longer. We also find trends in precipitation- related indices that indicate more availability of water, though the trend in the main agriculture region is less significant. QIAN et al. 2010 Observed Long-Term Trends for Agroclimatic Conditions in Canada
CMI is a measure of variability in the ratio of plant water demand to precipitation. It is an indicator of highly variable climates potentially vulnerable to periodic water stress. www.unesco.org Interannual Variation in Moisture
Inter-Annual Moisture Variability, North America
From: Sokhansanj et al. 2006. Production and distribution of cereal straw on the Canadian prairies.
Question 4 Have you ever experienced a shortage of wheat straw due poor growing conditions, too little or too rain, in a wheat producing area? Yes No
1. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1980 3. Drought: Prairie provinces and Central and Southern ON, Jul 5-11 1988 4. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1979 5. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1984 2. Freezing rain: Ontario to New Brunswick, Jan 6-10 1998 * Drought, Prairies, 2001-02, $.58 B