1. Episode 3 / CAATS II joint dissemination event Combining Techniques: Expert Groups, Gaming and Modelling Pablo Sánchez-Escalonilla AENA Episode 3 Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event

2. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 2 Overview Gaming and traditional modelling Modelling in EP3 Combining gaming and modelling EP3 Exercises Example Lessons Learnt Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event

3. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 3 Traditional Modelling Gaming Traditional Modelling Is this enough for the quantitative assessment of the SESAR ConOps? Clarification of the concept Qualitative Assessment of processes feasibility Quantitative Assessment Scale and completeness of simulated environment Quantification of Capacity and Efficiency Wide area and large coverage Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event

4. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 4 EP3 Modelling (Two of the) Areas of Research Quantitative assessment of performances At network-wide level For concepts at an early stage of maturity Quantitative assessment of CDM processes Indicators to measure the complexity of these processes Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event

5. Quantitative assessment of ECAC-wide performances (Macro) model to concentrate on a macroscopic scale Modelling of the network with heterogeneous nodes with capacity restrictions Uncertainty of ATM system Outcome: Operational KPAs (capacity, efficiency and predictability) at network level Identification of trade-offs, bottlenecks and network effect Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 5 EP3 Modelling Limited ability to capture detailed behaviour Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event

6. Quantitative assessment of CDM processes (Micro) model to concentrate on a microscopic scale Modelling of actors, roles and responsibilities with fast-time simulations based on discrete events Extrapolation of processes to a wide context and multiple scenarios Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 6 EP3 Modelling High level of detail is required Outcome: Indicators of Process Complexity (e.g. Number of negotiations) Identification of closed-loop processes, bottlenecks and overloaded actors Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event

7. EXPERT GROUP Combining Techniques Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 7 MACROMODEL LOCAL ASSESSMENT ECAC WIDE ASSESSMENT MICROMODEL (FTS) MACROMODEL CONCEPT MATURITY PAPER-BASED GAMING LOCAL PROCESSES FEASIBILITY PLATFORM- BASED GAMING MICROMODEL GLOBAL PROCESSES FEASIBILITY

8. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 8 EP3 Exercises Gaming and Modelling in EP3 Collaborative Planning Phases (Network Planning) Business Trajectory Management and Dynamic DCB DARTIS (Platform-Based Gaming) PROMAS (CDM Processes) ATM NEMMO (ECAC-Wide Network Performances) En-route Phase Queue, Trajectory and Separation Management Paper-Based Gaming PROMAS (CDM Processes) Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event

9. FAB DCB Queue active horizon DCB Queue active planning limit Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 9 Example: Dynamic DCB AMAN Horizon Apt 40min 1h20min 3h10 2h 1h55 DCB measure is provided at congested “area” Apt Two planning layers: Local AMAN process managing CTAs A pre-sequencing DCB process issuing TTAs at FAB level Airspace users decide on how to address the time constraints Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event

10. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 10 Example: Dynamic DCB Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event Definition of the Operational scenario Assumptions (e.g. time horizons, TTA allocation strategies) Expert Group Is the process feasible? Are the procedures acceptable from an airspace user point of view? Platform-based Gaming In a wider context… Process Management Indicators? (e.g. Number of negotiations) Any bottleneck in the process? Processes Modelling In a 24-hour ECAC scenario… ECAC Performance Indicators? (e.g. Reduction of average departure delay) Performances Modelling

11. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 11 Lessons Learnt Added value on combining gaming and modelling  Doubts about the need of fully integrated exercises using so many platforms/simulators For immature concepts, no easy way to assess the realism/correctness of the models and thus to ensure credibility of the results  Rolling process with expert group support Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event