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5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar PROJECT MANAGEMENT Time Management* Dr. L. K. Gaafar The American University in Cairo * This Presentation is Based on information.

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Presentation on theme: "5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar PROJECT MANAGEMENT Time Management* Dr. L. K. Gaafar The American University in Cairo * This Presentation is Based on information."— Presentation transcript:

1 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar PROJECT MANAGEMENT Time Management* Dr. L. K. Gaafar The American University in Cairo * This Presentation is Based on information from the PMBOK Guide 2000

2 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Critical Path Method (CPM) n CPM is a project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration n A critical path for a project is the series of activities that determines the earliest time by which the project can be completed n The critical path is the longest path through the network diagram and has the least amount of float

3 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Finding the Critical Path n Develop a network diagram n Add the durations of all activities to the project network diagram n Calculate the total duration of every possible path from the beginning to the end of the project n The longest path is the critical path n Activities on the critical path have zero float

4 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Consider the following project network diagram. Assume all times are in days. Simple Example

5 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Simple Example a. 2 paths on this network: A-B-C-E, A-B-D-F. b. Paths have lengths of 10, 16 c. The critical path is A-B-D-F d. The shortest duration needed to complete this project is 16 days Activity-on-arrow network

6 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar 02 02 02A 27 27 05B 714 7 07D 79 1315 62C 1416 14 16 02F 910 1516 61E Dummy Time Management ESEF LSLF SlackDur. Act Key Activity-on-node network

7 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Cash Flow

8 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Cash Flow

9 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Determining the Critical Path for Project X a. How many paths are on this network diagram? b. How long is each path? c. Which is the critical path? d. What is the shortest duration needed to complete this project?

10 5/18/2015 Stochastic (non-deterministic) Activity Durations Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

11 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Stochastic Times Uniform Triangular Beta

12 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Important Distributions

13 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Stochastic Times The Central Limit Theorem The sum of n mutually independent random variables is well-approximated by a normal distribution if n is large enough.

14 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar PERT: Finding the Critical Path (Stochastic Times) n Develop a network diagram n Calculate the mean duration and variance of each activity n Calculate the total mean duration and the variance of every possible path from the beginning to the end of the project by summing the mean duration and variances of all activities on the path. n The path with the longest mean duration is the critical path n If more than one path have the longest mean duration, the critical path is the one with the largest variance. n Calculate possible project durations using the normal distribution

15 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Example I Assuming that all activities are beta distributed, what is the probability that the project duration will exceed 19 weeks?

16 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar A 7, 2.8 C 5,0.1 B 4.5, 0.7 D 7, 0 E 3.5, 0.25 F8.7, 1.8 G 17.5, 1.36 7 7 14 17.5

17 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar A 7, 2.8 C 5,0.1 B 4.5, 0.7 D 7, 0 E 3.5, 0.25 F8.7, 1.8 G 17.5, 1.36 7 7 14 17.5

18 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Example II Duration ActivityIPADistributionamb A---Uniform4NA8 B---Triangular345 C---Beta456 DC 5712 EATriangular336 FA, BTriangular588 GE, DUniform9NA9 Construct an activity-on-arrow network for the project above. Provide a 95% confidence interval on the completion time of the project.

19 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Example II Duration ActivityIPADistributionamb A---Uniform4NA8 B---Triangular345 C---Beta456 DC 5712 EATriangular336 FA, BTriangular588 GE, DUniform9NA9 E C G F B StartFinish A D

20 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Example II StartFinish B (4, 0.17) C (5, 0.11) A (6, 1.33) E (4, 0.5)G (9, 0.0) F (7, 0.5) D (7.5, 1.36)

21 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Consider the following project network diagram. Assume all times are in days. Time Management: Crashing

22 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Time Management A(2,2,0) B(5,3,100) C(2,1,50) D(7,4,50) E(1,1,0) F(2,1,250)

23 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Duration/Cost Decision Support Curve

24 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Time Management A(2,2,0) B(3,3,100) C(2,1,50) D(4,4,50) E(1,1,0) F(1,1,250) Shortest Possible duration with crashing is 10 days. Critical path is not changed.

25 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Example Problem

26 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Project Network A 6 C 5 B 4 D 7 E 4 F 8 G 18 Shortest possible normal duration is 18 at a cost of $757

27 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar 614 1018 48F 0 0 0 G 05 27 25C 06 17 16 A 613 7 14 17D 610 14 44 B Dummy Time Management 1317 14 18 14E Dummy 18

28 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar A(4,4,10) C(4,4,15) B(4,3,13) D(7,7,0) E(2,2,21) F(8,6,12) G(13,13,18) Crashing

29 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Final Crashed Network A(4,4,10) C(4,4,15) B(4,3,13) D(7,7,0) E(2,2,21) F(8,6,12) G(13,13,18) The shortest crashed project duration is 13 days at a minimum total cost of $924. Further crashing of B or F is useless

30 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Using Critical Path Analysis to Make Schedule Trade-offs n Knowing the critical path helps you make schedule trade-offs n Free slack or free float is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the early start of any immediately following activities n Total slack or total float is the amount of time an activity may be delayed from its early start without delaying the planned project finish date This part is from a presentation by Kathy Schwalbe, schwalbe@augsburg.eduschwalbeedu http://www.augsburg.edu/depts/infotech/

31 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Techniques for Shortening a Project Schedule n Shortening durations of critical tasks by adding more resources or changing their scope n Crashing tasks by obtaining the greatest amount of schedule compression for the least incremental cost n Fast tracking tasks by doing them in parallel or overlapping them This part is from a presentation by Kathy Schwalbe, schwalbe@augsburg.eduschwalbeedu http://www.augsburg.edu/depts/infotech/

32 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Shortening Project Schedules Overlapped tasks Shortened duration Original schedule This part is from a presentation by Kathy Schwalbe, schwalbe@augsburg.eduschwalbeedu http://www.augsburg.edu/depts/infotech/

33 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar

34 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Activity Definition Activity Sequencing

35 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Duration Estimation Schedule Development

36 5/18/2015 L. K. Gaafar Schedule Control

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