1. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 “Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks“

2. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 Environmental change, and migration: Policy options for Europe Dr. Koko Warner Section Head Social Vulnerability and Environmental Migration UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany

3. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 Overview  Part 1: Does environmental change and migration affect Europe?  Trends  Migration as adaptation or measure of last resort?  Part 2: Global challenges, European policy alternatives  Act now: address problems at the source  Act later: humanitarian crisis  Outlook

4. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 Does environmentally induced migration affect Europe? 2 issues on global agenda, discussed separately –Climate change and environmental degradation –Migration –How are they linked? How many will migrate? –Estimates vary from at least 24 million today to 700 million by 2050 Climate change & migration challenge –The IPCC says less developed regions are especially vulnerable to impacts of environmental change „Climate change has serious implications on international peace and security, including migration.“ –UN General Assembly Thematic Debate, 11-12 Feb. 2008

5. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 Environmental change and migration: Hotspots & Trajectories (WGBU 2007) Source: WGBU 2007 (modified) Main trajectories

6. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 What does environmental change & migration mean for Europe?

7. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 7 November 1998 The Guardian, London What has changed in 10 years? Source: The Guardian 7 November 1998, Courtesy of Terry Cannon

8. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 The danger of „Us“ vs. „Them“ Who stands to lose more? Source: Material World: A Global Family Portrait (Menzel 1994) People worldwide face risk of losing life, livelihoods, home. The ability to cope with these risks differs from place to place. Some people migrate, some try to stay and „muddle through“. What are the options?

9. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 Europe is at the forefront of environmentally-induced migration. There is no turning away from the problem, but there are choices to be made how to move forward. Here are two alternatives.

10. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 Act now: Address environmental change at the source 1.Help people Stay at home (?) Find a new place (?) 2.Help improve environmental conditions 3.Help manage risk 4.Help foster sustainable development Source: EACH-FOR project, Marc Stal 2007

11. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 Act later: Humanitarian crisis Photo courtesy of Thomas Loster, Munich Re Foundation

12. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 What actions must be taken? Europe has the opportunity to lead in policy and practice: 1.Science 2.Awareness 3.Legislation 4.Humanitarian assistance 5.Institutional

13. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 Conclusions Environmental factors currently contribute to migration, this affects Europe. Europe can choose to act now, and stem a tide of environmental change and migration. Alternatively, Europe can choose to act later, and deal with humanitarian crisis on a large scale. We must address migration in the face of climate change TODAY for human security in Europe and for Europe´s neighbors tomorrow

14. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security warner@ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 Thank you. Dr. Koko Warner warner@ehs.unu.edu Tel: +49 228 815 0226 www.ehs.unu.edu