1. 6,000 Years of Humanity’s “little ice age” Collapses Dennis T. Avery, Hudson Institute Heartland 7th Conference on Climate Change May 22, 2012

8. Mayan Swamp Farming

10. What happened? The Bronze Age Collapse at 1200 BC

11. Ice Reveals the 1,500-Yr Cycle

12. The bad times— the blue “little ice ages”

13. Seven Collapses in Today’s Iraq Ubaid 3900 BC Drought Uruk 2900 BC Flood\ Akkadia 2200 BC Drought Babylon 1600 BC Famine, invasion Assyria 1200 BC Famine, invasion Dark Ages 600 AD Famine, Muslims Little Ice Age 1650 AD Ottoman Empire’s “17 th Century Crisis” All of these abrupt climate shifts were global.

14. Dansgaard-Oeschger: “moderate” climate cycles? Colder (2-4 C) Shorter, cloudier growing seasons Megadroughts Violent floods Untimely frosts Locusts Nomad invasions Bubonic plague

15. Bubonic plague epidemics due to “little ice ages” too Rat fleas carry the plague bacteria in arid western China. When megadrought starves “their rats” the fleas seek new hosts—people, camels furs, ships. Bubonic plagues killed millions during both the Dark Ages and Little Ice Age.

17. Shifting Rainfall- worst aspect of the “little ice ages” Tropical rain belts shift 600 miles south as Arctic ice expands over centuries. Sahara desert moves south Europe floods China gets drought, floods and locusts Eurasian steppes get megadrought, so nomads invade all neighbors Then the rain belts cycle back

20. 17 th century famines finally drive high-yield farming

21. Ancients’ response to climate change: the gods were angry

22. The 1,500-yr Cycle says: With high-yield farming, we can feed the people. With higher yield farming we need plow no more wildlands. We are more sustainable than the pessimists believe. With agricultural research, we can be more sustainable than we ever dared believe—until now.

23. We finally know what happened! The failed cultures starved due to abrupt climate change—inflicted by Mother Nature! No lurking flaw in humans. No human-induced “tipping points.” Just inadequate farm technology in the past.

24. We can do even better

25. Bill Gates has it right: Invest in agricultural research Use biotechnology Use energy miles to transport crops from where they grow best Use more nitrogen fertilizer Human sustainability is growing lots of food per acre!!

26. But the Anasazi starved during the Medieval Warming

27. Megadrought and they lived in forts! Abrupt climate change can happen anytime.

28. ! Restart the high yield farming research yesterday!!

29. Books by Dennis Avery Climate & Collapse: Abrupt Climate Change Thru History (forthcoming) Unstoppable Global Warming--Every 1,500 Yrs (2007) Saving the Planet with Pesticides and Plastic (2005)