1. New Nuclear Weapon System SubmarineMissile Warhead

2. New Ship Submersible Ballistic Nuclear (SSBN) 3 or 4 new nuclear-armed submarines first in service in 2024

3. Submarine Programme 081114172023262932353841444750535659 Vanguard New SSBN Nuclear-Armed Submarines

4. Submarine Programme 081114172023262932353841444750535659 Vanguard New SSBN Trafalgar Astute MUFC Nuclear-Armed Submarines Conventionally-Armed Submarines

5. New SSBN Timeline 20072008200920102011201220132014 Concept Design Initial Design Detail Design Outputs Build Main Gate Initial Gate

6. New SSBN Timeline 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Concept Design Initial Design Detailed Design Production Outputs Build & Commission Sea Trials In Service Initial Gate Main Gate

7. Reactor options for new SSBN PWR 2 New Generation Nuclear Propulsion Plant (NGNPP) Reactor on Vanguard & Astute New Design Passive cooling system Safer ? New Prototype ? More expensive ?

8. Continuous Patrols Alert – “measured in days” non-verifiable “our planned future programme should take us up to 750 [patrols]” Rear Admiral Matthews One armed submarine on patrol at all times Patrols 1968-2007300 2008-2060 ?450 Total750

9. New Nuclear Weapon System SubmarineMissile Warhead

10. Missile System Initially - Trident Later - Trident or new US missile

11. Missile options 242628303234363840424448505254565860 British “successor” submarine in-service 2024 – 2060 Trident D5 in service with US Navy until 2042 ULMS & SSBN(X) in service with US Navy from 2029

12. Underwater Launched Missile System (ULMS) New US missile to replace Trident D5 In service by 2029 Initial concept studies started in 2007 Considered by Strategic Advisory Group November 2007

13. Operational independence ? “without United States cooperation … Polaris would become ineffective after only a few months” Sir Charles Ellworthy March 1971

14. New Nuclear Weapon System SubmarineMissile Warhead

15. Nuclear Warhead

16. Options for nuclear warhead UK Trident warhead New warhead or

17. Plutonium pit No replacement Lifespan 60 years plus New Pit Fire Resistant Life Extension New Warhead

18. High Explosives Replace EDC 37 High Explosive after 16 ? years Insensitive High Explosives Safer, Larger & Heavier Life Extension New Warhead

19. Modernisation of Aldermaston

20. Implications for Scotland 2024 – 2055 nuclear warheads in transport and storage nuclear-armed nuclear-powered submarines potential nuclear attack on targets in Scotland

21. Warhead accident - Plutonium dispersal 30 mSv Consider Evacuation 3 mSv Consider Shelter Plutonium: 4 Kg Explosives: 20 lb Wind: SW 5 m/s Computer Programme Hotspots 2.06 Total Effective Dose Equivalent

22. Comparison of Hotspots & LAESI Downwind Distance DoseCountermeasure 400 m300 mSvEvacuate 2.5 km30 mSvConsider Evacuation 16 km3 mSvConsider Shelter HOTSPOTS MODEL LAESI GUIDELINES DistanceArcCountermeasure 600m360Evacuate 5 km45Shelter

23. Ground deposition of Plutonium 100 kBq/m2 10 kBq/m2 Plutonium: 4 Kg Explosives: 20 lb Wind: SW 5 m/s Computer Programme Hotspots 2.06

24. Submarine Hazards Reactor Fuel for 30 year operation 98% enriched HEU; decay products greatest in later years.

25. Submarine Hazards HMS Tireless in Gibraltar 2000/01

26. Submarine Hazards Missiles The rocket fuel in 12 Trident missiles is equivalent to 820 tonnes of TNT

27. Submarine Hazards Nuclear Warheads Nuclear warheads are fixed around the third stage of each missiles

28. Submarine Hazards Torpedoes Torpedoes are designed to sink a modern submarine August 2000: Torpedo accident on Kursk

29. Submarine Hazards Fire Fire on a submarine can lead to a nuclear accident October 2004 Fire on Upholder (HMCS Chicoutimi)

30. Submarine Hazards USS Scorpion bowUSS Scorpion stern Sinking 2 US and 6 Russian nuclear submarines have sunk following accidents

31. Submarine Hazards Explosion of 820 tonnes rocket fuel Detonation of nuclear warhead Dispersal of 200 kg plutonium from warheads Dispersal of radioactive material from reactor

32. Where could an accident happen ?

33. Faslane Base for Trident and proposed base for Successor SSBN

34. Faslane Shiplift Lifts submarine with missiles & nuclear weapons Construction problems Vulnerable to aircrash May be replaced by dry dock

35. Coulport Warheads attached & removed in Explosives Handling Jetty

36. Submarines in transit Risk to towns in Clyde estuary

37. Hazard zones for submarines in transit 2 km zone around where submarines regularly sail Equivalent to preplanned countermeasures zone for berths.

38. Hazard zones for submarines in transit 10 km zone around where submarines regularly sail Equivalent to extendibility zone for berths.

39. Loch Goil Z berth Noise Range

40. Rothesay Z berth Mooring Buoy in Rothesay Bay

41. Highland Z Berths

42. Highland Z Berths & Trials Broadford Z Berth Rona Noise Range Lochewe Z Berth

43. Submarine exercise areas

44. Dounreay PWR2 Reactor Prototype

45. Possible new Prototype ? New nuclear reactor at Dounreay ? In service 2018 – 2044 ? Transport of new fuel, used fuel and waste across Scotland

46. New Tritium Production Facility ? Decay of current tritium stockpile 20062054 Previous source: Chapelcross Location of new facility unknown

47. Scope of safety schemes Road transport of nuclear weapons LAESI guidelines Road & rail transport of Defence Nuclear Materials LAESI guidelines Submarine reactor accident at a berth Clyde and Highland Safety Schemes Reactor accident at HMS Vulcan Dounreay Vulcan safety scheme Reactor or Warhead accident at sea No specific scheme

48. Safety schemes scenarios Safety Scheme Scenario Worst Case Nuclear Warhead Transport Plutonium Dispersal Nuclear Yield Submarine Loss of Coolant Containment Failure Nuclear- Armed Submarine Loss of Coolant Nuclear Yield & Containment Failure

49. Containment Failure Accident

50. NII Licencing FunctionSiteNII Licensed Warhead Manufacture Atomic Weapons Establishment Yes Submarine Refit & Maintenance Devonport Dockyard Yes Fuel Rod Fabrication DerbyYes Submarine Maintenance FaslaneNo Warhead HandlingCoulportNo Prototype ReactorHMS Vulcan, Dounreay No

51. Relative risks Probability Effect Least Effect Greatest Effect Most Likely Least Likely Nuclear War Submarine Or Warhead Accident

52. Effect of nuclear war - Targeting Nuclear targeting priorities: 1. Nuclear weapons & Command/Control 2. Military facilities 3. Military industrial facilities 4. Other industrial & civilian facilities With fewer weapons the emphasis is on top priority targets.

53. Primary Nuclear Targets in Scotland Berths 10 & 11 Faslane Berth 12 & Shiplift Faslane Explosives Handling Jetty Coulport Reentry Body Magazine Coulport

54. Effect of nuclear attack on Faslane 10 Sv 100 % fatalities 4.5 Sv 50 % fatalities 300 mSv Evacuate Weapons: 6 x 550 Kt warheads Ground Zero: Faslane/Coulport Wind: 5 m/s WNW Exposure: 1 week; Shelter factor: 0.5 Computer Programme: Hotspots 2.06

55. Nuclear Waste issues Nuclear WarheadsFinal disposal; Waste generated at Aldermaston & Coulport Used FuelUsed Fuel from 3-4 new submarines In-service waste from submarine Handled at Faslane Prototype for new reactor ? Used Fuel; in-service waste & decommissioning Submarines after decommissioning No solution or location identified

56. Disposal of submarine hulks Defuelled11 Awaiting Defuelling 3 In service13 Current Subtotal 27 Astute7 ? New SSBN4 ? MUFC7 ? Potential Total 207045 Rosyth Dockyard

57. Nuclear Weapons Budget 2007 - 2011 07/0808/0909/1010/11 £ million AWE Operating Other “Trident Replacement” + AWE Development 2100 2000 1700 1500

58. Trident Replacement Procurement Costs Warhead£2-3 bn Infrastructure£2-3 bn Submarine£11-15 bn Total£15-20 bn

59. Nuclear Weapons Costs 2008-2058 Average Annual cost£1.5 bn Total cost over 50 years£75 bn