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Trident Replacement: the practical implications Presentation to British Pugwash AGM 8 April 2008 John Ainslie Coordinator, Scottish CND.

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Presentation on theme: "Trident Replacement: the practical implications Presentation to British Pugwash AGM 8 April 2008 John Ainslie Coordinator, Scottish CND."— Presentation transcript:

1 Trident Replacement: the practical implications Presentation to British Pugwash AGM 8 April 2008 John Ainslie Coordinator, Scottish CND

2 Trident Replacement SubmarineMissile Warhead Targeting

3 “Successor” Submarine

4 New submarine Timeline 20072008200920102011201220132014 Concept Design Initial Design Detail Design Outputs Build Main Gate Initial Gate

5 Nuclear-Powered Submarines 10121416182022242628 Astute Successor MUFC

6 Reactor for “Successor” PWR2 Rolls Royce Royal Navy  New Design

7 New Generation Nuclear Propulsion Plant (NGNPP) “avoid pumped flow systems” Steve Ludham RR “a modern & much simpler plant” Rear Admiral Matthews

8 USS Narwhal (1969 – 1999) When built - quietest submarine

9 Continuous Patrols Alert – “measured in days” non-verifiable “our planned future programme should take us up to 750 [patrols]” Rear Admiral Matthews One armed submarine on patrol at all times Patrols 1968-2007300 2008-2060 ?450 Total750

10 Infrastructure - Devonport Refit Dockyard

11 Infrastructure - Derby Fuel Rod Fabrication

12 Infrastructure - Faslane Submarine Base and Shiplift

13 Infrastructure - Coulport Explosives Handling Jetty

14 Infrastructure - Dounreay Submarine Reactor Prototype & overhaul of coolant pumps

15 The Scottish Question “the Parliament … calls on the UK Government not to go ahead at this time with the proposal in the White Paper, The Future of the United Kingdom’s Nuclear Deterrent” 14 June 2007 71 for 16 against 39 abstained 2 did not vote

16 If not Scotland where ? 1963 Polaris option - Falmouth

17 Trident Replacement SubmarineMissile Warhead Targeting

18 Missile System

19 Underwater Launched Missile System (ULMS) New US missile to replace Trident D5 In service by 2029 Initial concept studies started in 2007 Considered by Strategic Advisory Group November 2007

20 Missile options 242628303234363840424448505254565860 British “successor” submarine in-service 2024 – 2060 Trident D5 in service with US Navy until 2042 ULMS & SSBN(X) in service with US Navy from 2029

21 Underwater Launched Missile System “any successor to the D5 system should be compatible with, or be capable or being made compatible with, the launch system for the D5 missile” Bush to Blair Dec 2006 “concepts for future submarines may have missile tubes larger than 87 inches in diameter” ULMS Test Bed Request for Information 7 Nov 2007

22 Future RV system ? Manoeuvrable Reentry Vehicle (MaRV) Developed for nuclear Trident (E2 RV) Revived for Conventional Trident Option for ULMS ?

23 Operational independence ? “without United States cooperation … Polaris would become ineffective after only a few months” Sir Charles Ellworthy, CDS, March 1971

24 Trident Replacement SubmarineMissile Warhead Targeting

25 Nuclear Warhead

26 The special nuclear relationship 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement Solly Zuckerman – no interest beyond Polaris Polaris upgrade – to revive relationship Peter Jones – “whether the UK had done it themselves”

27 The first UK thermonuclear bomb Not based on Grapple design Anglicised version of US Mk 28 warhead Red Snow warhead

28 The Polaris family Polaris ChevalineWE 177

29 Primary Secondary US or UKUK designUS design OriginCleo testW 58W 59 PolarisJennieReggie WE 177BKatieSimon WE 177AKatie A ChevalineHarrietReggie WE 177CKatie AReggie source: www.nuclear-weapons.info

30 Origin of the UK Trident design UK designAnglicised US design “The warhead was designed in the UK” Bob Ainsworth Mar 08 “The warheads were anglicised by the AWE” National Archives 1978 – 1980 4 tests of UK lightweight warhead; 50 kiloton yield opened door to details of US designs; 6 further tests 1980-87 Primary uses British High Explosive Secondary probably derived from US design (as with Polaris family)

31 US components in UK Trident warhead Arming, Fusing & Firing System Neutron Generator Gas Transfer System ? … it was decided on cost-effectiveness grounds to procure certain non-nuclear warhead components from the United States. (B ob Ainsworth)

32 Future of the US nuclear stockplie Life Extension Reliable Replacement Warhead

33 US Life Extension Programmes (LEP) B61-7/11 LEP underway W80 LEP cancelled W76 Major LEP

34 US Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) More reliable ? Safer More secure Increased weight and size

35 US Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) Livermore design chosen No funding FY 2008 Advanced Certification Funding request FY 2009

36 US Nuclear Weapon Reviews Report date Congress Commission2008 Policy Review2009 Posture Review2010

37 Options for British warheads Life Extension High Surety Warhead or Life Extension underway since 2000 Britain will probably follow US lead

38 New UK High Surety Warhead Features – IHE, FRP, No Be DesignPrevious tests Modified UK TridentNone Modified UK TD-127?? Anglicised US WR1US W89 Design Options

39 Warhead components

40 Reentry Vehicle (RV) case Mk 4 RV Replace some fittings Larger Mk 5 RV New production Life Extension New Warhead

41 Plutonium pit No replacement Lifespan 60 years plus New Pit Fire Resistant Life Extension New Warhead

42 Pit Tube Replace pit tube Life Extension

43 Tamper Beryllium No replacement Substitute for Beryllium Life Extension New Warhead

44 High Explosives US – replace after 30 yrs UK - EDC 37 High Explosive - replace after 16 ? years Insensitive High Explosives Safer, Larger & Heavier Life Extension New Warhead

45 Detonation System Replace detonators Optical initiated firing system Life Extension New Warhead

46 Secondary HEU No replacement Lifespan 60 years plus New HEU secondary Life Extension New Warhead

47 Interstage Remanufacture Fogbank Substitute for Fogbank Substitute for Beryllium Life Extension New Warhead

48 Radiation Case No replacement New simpler design Life Extension New Warhead

49 Arming, Fuzing & Firing System

50 AWE vacancy Warhead Electrical Engineer Support the approval programme for the introduction of the system into UK Trident AWE website Support the approval programme for the introduction of the Mk4A AF&F system into UK Trident Beechgrove Recruiting

51 Arming, Fuzing & Firing System MK4A AF&F advanced fuzing options increased targeting flexibility and effectiveness key part of US W76-1 warhead upgrade / LEP increase the warfighting effectiveness of the D5 system introduced in UK Trident system by 2017

52 Arming, Fuzing & Firing System upgrade to Mk4A New design Life Extension New Warhead

53 Neutron Generator MC4380 introduced 2003 New design Life Extension New Warhead

54 Gas Transfer System Acorn (UK 2005) Acorn II (LEP) New design Life Extension New Warhead

55 Warhead Timeline 08121620242832364044485256 W76-1 Reliable Replacement Warhead Initial lifespan Refurbished Warhead High Surety Warhead or and W76-0 New AF&F

56 Modernisation of AWE Orion Laser Aldermaston

57 Modernisation of AWE Hydrus Hydrodynamic Facility Aldermaston

58 Modernisation of AWE High Explosives Fabrication Facility Aldermaston

59 Modernisation of AWE Uranium Production Facility Aldermaston

60 Modernisation of AWE Refurbish A90 Aldermaston

61 Modernisation of AWE Refurbish A45 Aldermaston

62 Modernisation of AWE New Supercomputers Aldermaston

63 Modernisation of AWE New Warhead Assembly & Dissassembly Facility Burghfield Current Gravel Gerties

64 AWE budget 2005 - 2011 05/0606/0707/0808/0909/1010/11 £ million Running costs Development

65 Tritium supply Tritium decays with half-life of 12 years No current source of UK tritium New facility ? – linked to civil nuclear 20062054

66 Lower yield warhead UK Trident warhead – yield fixed at time of manufacture. Future US & UK submarine warheads – possible variable yield. the continued availability of a lower yield from our warhead Future of UK Nuclear Deterrent December 2006

67 Trident Replacement SubmarineMissile Warhead Targeting

68 Targeting system

69 Transfer of US targeting data OPLAN 8044 information STRATCOM Omaha UKLO STRATCOM Omaha SACEUR Mons Belgium NOTC MoD London SWS IPT Bath / Corsham sanitised

70 Corsham

71

72 Cold War bunker for PM and Queen Site 3

73 Corsham UK Defence Communications Hub DCSA HQ

74 Corsham Computer Centre Trident targeting

75 Targeting system Target Planning (Corsham) Fire Control (Submarine) Magnetic Tape Cartridge Target Change Message

76 Targeting system upgrades SLBM Retargeting System (SRS) operational in 2003 quickly, accurately & reliably retarget missiles to targets timely & reliable processing of an increased number of targets support adaptive planning US and UK systems

77 Targeting system upgrades SLBM Planning & Operational Flexibility (SPOF) funded 2010 - 2012 improve flexibility & responsiveness enhance accuracy and effectiveness follow on to SRS application in UK ?

78 Fire Control hardware upgrades USUKIn service Mod 4Mod 52003 Mod 6Mod 72010

79 Targeting software for UK Trident // Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; kmax_pk) { max_pk=Fsum; indx=k; { If ((max_pk-mi_pk)<+0.0001) Indx=indx_cep; ; opt_index[targ_indx][sys_indx; return(max_pk Software for US target planning & fire control

80 Targeting software for UK Trident // Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; kmax_pk) { max_pk=Fsum; indx=k; { If ((max_pk-mi_pk)<+0.0001) Indx=indx_cep; ; opt_index[targ_indx][sys_indx; return(max_pk US Eyes Only items removed from code, tables and manuals

81 Targeting software for UK Trident // Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; kmax_pk) { max_pk=Fsum; indx=k; { If ((max_pk-mi_pk)<+0.0001) Indx=indx_cep; ; opt_index[targ_indx][sys_indx; return(max_pk Sanitised software supplied to Corsham

82 Targeting software for UK Trident // Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; kmax_pk) { max_pk=Fsum; indx=k; { If ((max_pk-mi_pk)<+0.0001) Indx=indx_cep; ; opt_index[targ_indx][sys_indx; return(max_pk US could cripple software to restrict use

83 Assigned to NATO ? NATO attack less likely independent attack less likely bilateral attack most likely

84 Closing Points Dependence on US support Early stage of long-term plan Need greater transparency Endangered species


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