1. OYUNJARGAL Lamjav Climate review for 2012/2013 Winter and 2013 summer outlook over Mongolia FOCRA II, Beijing, China 8-10 April 2013 Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, Mongolia

2. Climate review for 2012/2013 Winter

3. MSLP & Anomaly - December

4. MSLP & Anomaly - January

5. MSLP & Anomaly - February

6. 2012-2013 winter temperature anomaly, o C /1.9- -5.5 o C/ Temperature variation -1.9 o C T avg =-20.3 o C ΔT avg =-1.9 o C 2.8 o C -0.3 o C -7.5 o C -2.0 o C -3.6 o C -2.6 o C 1.4 o C -0.7 o C -5.9 o C -2.2 o C -4.2 o C Dec Jan Feb

7. Precipitation variation 2012-2013 winter precipitation anomaly, o C R avg =3.3mm ΔR avg =147.7% Dec Jan Feb 109% 100% 271% Dec Jan Feb 246% 40% 30% Dec Jan Feb 397% 13% 43% Dec Jan Feb 397% 341% 0%

8. Notable event December was relatively cold (-3.8 o C) and snowy (207%). 1 st 3 rd 2 nd 4 rd /-51.2 o C, the coldest in last 33 years / Absolute minimum temperature in December /-51.2 o C, the coldest in last 33 years / Number of days with minimum temperature less than -30 o C 1 st 2 nd 3 rd

9. Summary Temperature anomaly was below normal and ranged between 1.9 and -5.5 o C. For spatial distribution, the most part of central and eastern region of the country experienced -3.5 - -5.5 o C colder than normal winter. Above normal precipitation has observed almost all over the country. As a result of this snowfall, more than 80% of the territory covered by snow during this winter. Precipitation in December and February was above normal. December 2012 was 4rd coldest and 3 rd wettest month since 1971.

10. 2013 summer outlook

11. Methods Lagged –correlation method –lead time: 6 month “Extreme” statistical model - lead time: 6 month Statistical downscaling of TCC, GCM –lead time: 1 month Statistical downscaling of APCC, GCM - lead time: 1-3 month

12. Temperature – summer 2013 June July August Above normal Normal

13. Precipitation –summer 2013 June July August Above normal Normal Below normal

14. Verification of last winter outlook Region Month Temperature Anomaly Precipitation ratio (%) ForeObsForeObs West DecNN\BAA\B JanBA\NAB\N FebNNAA Center DecNBAA JanN\B A\NB FebNBAN\A East DecNBAA JanNN\BAA FebNBAB\A Gobian DecNBAA JanNN\AAA\B FebNN\BA\NN\A

15. Summary Temperature is expected to be mostly near normal and 1.2-1.5 o C above normal Precipitation – near normal throughout the country almost in all months.

16. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION