1. Cosmic Rays and Space Weather Erwin O. Flückiger Laurent Desorgher, Rolf Bütikofer, Benoît Pirard Physikalisches Institut University of Bern erwin.flueckiger@space.unibe.ch

2. The Cosmic Ray - Space Weather System 87% p 12% α & …..

3. Galactic and Solar Cosmic Rays ACE, GOES … Neutron Monitors Muon Telescopes AMS, BESS, PAMELA, … AUGER, … Special Detectors Flux: ~35 orders of magnitude / Energy: ~ 14 orders of magnitude Main Space Weather Domain at present

4. Worldwide Neutron Monitor Network

5. Detector Response (Parameterized Yield Function) Neutron Monitors neutrons & protons p Cascade of Secondary Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

6. Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays 1991-2001

7. Geomagnetic Shielding of Galactic Cosmic Rays Earth Latitude Dependence of Cosmic Ray Intensity (sea level) Solar Maximum Solar Minimum

8. Solar Cosmic Rays Solar Flare Sun Earth Electromagnetic Radiation & Neutrons Charged Particles

9. In the January 20, 2005 GLE, the earliest neutron monitor onset preceded the earliest Proton Alert issued by the Space Environment Center by 14 minutes Neutron Monitors can provide the earliest alert of a Solar Energetic Particle Event Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop Solar Energetic Particle Event Alert

10. GLE Alert Study: a GLE Alert is issued when 3 stations of Spaceship Earth (plus South Pole) record a 4% increase in 3-min averaged data With 3 stations, false alarm rate is near zero GLE Alert precedes SEC Proton Alert by ~ 10-30 min Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

11. Solar Cosmic Ray Events Forecasting Intensity / Time Profile Dorman et al., 2005 September 29, 1989 GLE:forecasting of total neutron intensity (time t is in minutes after 11.40 UT) circles – observed total neutron intensity curves – forecasting

12. Solar Cosmic Rays Evaluation of Radiation Doses

13. The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle Event Neutron Monitor Observations

14. PLANETOCOSMICS: - Cascade in the Atmosphere - Secondary Spectra From NM Data, outside of the Magnetosphere: - Apparent Source Direction - Pitch Angle Distribution - Rigidity Spectrum Spectrum at the top of the Atmosphere for specified arrival directions PLANETOCOSMICS:- Asymptotic Directions (MAGNETOCOSMICS) - Cutoff Rigidities Method Secondary Spectra → Dosage Pelliccioni et al., Overview of Fluence to Effective Dose and Fluence to Ambient Dose Conversion Coefficients for High Energy Radiation Calculated Using the FLUKA Code, Radiation Protection Dosimetry 2000;88:4:279-297

15. The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle Event Radiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude Apatity NM

16. The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle Event Radiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude Apatity NM

17. Solar Cosmic Ray Access to Earth

19. The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle Event Radiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude http://www.euradnews.org/ ………… For normal aircraft altitudes and for higher latitudes, for instance for Europe to US west coast or Japan routes, initial estimates indicate that the additional doses should not exceed 40 µSv/flight. Final estimates will be produced after analysis of satellite and ground monitor data, and any in−flight measurements results. ………. Notification of Ground Level Event: December 13th, 2006 Assessment of doses by the EURADOS Working Group `Aircraft Crew Dosimetry`

20. 30th ICRC; Paper 715, Shea & Smart GLEs during Solar Cycles 19-23

21. CMEs Interplanetary Shocks Geomagnetic Storms Warning of Approaching Disturbance

22. CME / Interplanetary Shock – Geomagnetic Storm Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab

23. Directional Viewing of Ground Based CR Detectors Neutron Monitors neutrons & protons p muons Muon Telescopes p pp Interplanetary Space Bending of Particle Trajectories in the Earth‘s Magnetic Field Cascade of Secondary Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere Magnetopause

24. Directional Viewing Example: Five selected viewing directions of the MuSTAnG Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald (~ 54°N, ~ 13°E) (GSE coordinate system, Robinson projection) Sun IMF 90° 180° 30°S 60°S

25. Directional Viewing Example: 24-hour rotation of five selected viewing directions of the MuSTAnG Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald (GSE coordinate system, Robinson projection) Sun IMF

26. Loss-cone Precursors Nagashima et al. [1992], Ruffolo [1999] Intensity deficit confined in a cone Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop Muon Diagnostics

27. Loss Cones appear as a “Predecrease” when viewed by a single detector Event on December 14, 2006 observed by muon detector in São Martinho, Brazil As detector viewing directions rotate through loss cone, a predecrease is seen first from the East, then from Vertical, and finally from West Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop Muon Diagnostices

28. ICRC 2007, Paper 298, Timashkov et al. URAGAN muon hodoscope Muon Diagnostices

29. Loss Cones Can Be Seen in a “Bubble Plot” in Large Events In this bubble plot, each circle represents a directional channel in a muon telescope Circle is plotted at time of observation (abscissa) and pitch angle of asymptotic viewing direction (ordinate) Solid circles indicate a deficit intensity relative to omnidirectional average, and open circles indicate excess intensity; scale is indicated at right of plot Loss cone is evidenced by large solid circles concentrated near 0 O pitch angle Figure adapted from Munakata et al., J. Geophys. Res., 105, 27457-27468, 2000. Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

30. Muon Network Loss Cone Display and Bidirectional Streaming Display Spaceship Earth Loss Cone Display and Bidirectional Streaming Display Spaceship Earth 11-station network of neutron monitors strategically located to provide precise, real-time, 3-dimensional measurements of the cosmic ray angular distribution. Participating institutions include the University of Delaware, IZMIRAN (Moscow Region, Russia), Polar Geophysical Institute (Apatity, Russia), Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (Russia), Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy (Russia), Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation (Russia), Australian Antarctic Division (Hobart), and the University of Tasmania (Hobart). http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/spaceweather/

31. CMEs Interplanetary Shocks Geomagnetic Storms “Geo-effectiveness” Predictions limited

32. The December 2006 Geomagnetic Storm

34. The 14 December 2006 Forbush Decrease Modulation of galactic cosmic ray intensity ~5% Decrease at mid-latitude Jungfraujoch Neutron Monitor GLE

35. Space Weather Networks e.g. - Spaceship Earth - Aragats Space –Environmental Center (ASEC) in Armenia - Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center - MuSTAnG – Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald - Space Environmental Viewing and Analysis Network (SEVAN) - FP-7 Program NMDB (Real Time Neutron Monitor Data Base) Kick-off meeting January 2008

36. Summary and Conclusions Galactic and solar cosmic rays play a significant role in all space weather scenarios Solar cosmic ray particle events: - Forecasting of occurrence not possible at present stage - New analysis techniques allow limited alert and prognosis of characterstics of ongoing events - Quantitative modelling (e.g. of radiation dosis at aircraft altitude) needs expertise in a broad field of topics Solar/geomagnetic storms: - Inner heliosphere screening: Warning of approaching disturbances possible with neutron monitor and muon telescope data New Hybrid Particle Detectors measuring multiple secondary particle fluxes have a large potential Global detector networks operating in real time are essential for space weather applications!