1. Data-Driven Agent-Based Social Simulation of Moral Values Evolution Samer Hassan Universidad Complutense de Madrid University of Surrey

2. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 2 Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

3. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 3 Objective Study the evolution of Spanish society in the period 1980-2000 Data-Driven Agent-Based Modelling Applying several Artificial Intelligence techniques

4. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 4 The Problem Aim: simulate the process of change in moral values in a period in a society Plenty of factors involved Nowadays, centred in the inertia of generational change: To which extent the demographic dynamics explain the mentality change?

5. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 5 The Problem Input Data loaded: EVS-1980 Quantitative periodical info Representative sample of Spain Allows Validation Intra-generational: Agent characteristics remain constant Macro aggregation evolves

6. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 6 Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

7. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 7 Design of Mentat Agent: EVS  Agent MS attributes Life cycle patterns Demographic micro-evolution: Couples Reproduction Inheritance World: 3000 agents Grid 100x100 Demographic model Network: Communication with Moore Neighbourhood Friends network Family network

8. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 8 Friendship Network

9. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 9 Friendship Network

10. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 10 Friendship Network

11. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 11 Friendship Network

12. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 12 Friendship Network

13. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 13 Friendship Network

14. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 14 Friendship Network

15. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 15 Friendship Network

16. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 16 Methodological aspects Data-driven ABM Microsimulation concepts Design with qualitative info Life cycle, micro-processes Introduction of empirical equations Life expectancy, birth rate, different probabilities Initialisation with survey data Validation with different empirical data

17. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 17 Mentat in action

18. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 18 Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

19. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 19 Results

20. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 20 Results It may arise new sociological knowledge: Demographic Dynamics are a key factor for the prediction of social trends in Spanish society

21. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 21 Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

22. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 22 Introduction of AI: Fuzzy Logic Why Fuzzy Logic? Social sciences are characterized by uncertain and vague knowledge Different concept than probability 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0 Old 10.150 10.240 10.530 0.8 20 0110 AdultYoungAge

23. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 23 Fuzzification Attributes Similarity Friendship & its evolution Couples

24. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 24 Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

25. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 25 Introduction of AI: NLP Fuzzy logic helps for ABM qualitative input NLP helps for ABM qualitative output Experimenting with life-events generation: Output in natural language: life-story of a representative individual (Ex: hyper-inflation) Applications: NL format makes direct comparison with real stories possible Information very simple for any individual to understand Complementing explanations of quantitative research

26. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 26 Quantitative & Qualitative Output Generation

27. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 27 An example: part of the XML output...............

28. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 28 An example: part of the life-story generated Rosa Pérez was born in 1955, and she met Luis Martínez, and she met Miguel López. She suffered a horrible childhood, and she had a very good friend: María Valdés, and she believed in God, and she used to go to church every week.... When she was a teenager, (...) she had problems with drugs, and she became an adult, and she met Marci Boyle, and while she was involved in a labour union, she met Carla González and she got arrested. She learned how to play the guitar, and so she became a hippy, getting involved in a NGO.... She met Sara Hernández, and she stopped going to church, and she met Marcos Torres, and she fell in love, desperately, with Marcos Torres, but in the end she went out with Miguel López, and she co-habitated with Miguel López, and she had a child: Melvin López.... She met Sergio Ruiz, and she separated from Miguel López, and she went out with Sergio Ruiz, and she co-habitated with Sergio Ruiz. She had a abortion, and so she had a depression, and she had a crisis of values. She was unfaithful to Sergio Ruiz with another man.... Nowadays she is an atheist.

29. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 29 Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

30. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 30 Introduction of AI: Data Mining Data Mining is the process of extracting patterns and relevant information from large amounts of data Design: Allows simplification, locates redundant attributes Pre-processing of empirical data (surveys): Clustering: selection of qualitative “ideal types” Post-processing of simulation output: Clustering: Shows non-visible patterns Comparison of patterns Different life-stories for each pattern Classification: evolution of “ideal types”

31. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 31 Limitations & Future Work Enough demography! Overcome methodological limitation: implementing diffusion of moral values Quest for a proper cognitive model for this task...or forget about it definitely not BDI Improve other aspects: ABM design (Ex: friendship ties may weaken) Fuzzy inference Quality of biographies

32. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 32 Thanks for your attention! Samer Hassan samer@fdi.ucm.es

33. Samer Hassan SSASA 2008 33 Contents License This presentation is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ You are free to copy, modify and distribute it as long as the original work and author are cited