1. Education and Fertility in Bangladesh: Future Prospects and the Role of Family Planning Services Mizanur Rahman Pathfinder International Julie DaVanzo RAND Abdur Razzaque ICDDR,B: Centre for Health and Population Research November 2002

2. Since Its 1971 Independence, Bangladesh Has Sought to Control Its Population Growth With a small geographic area but a large population, Bangladesh has had a strong political commitment to limit its growthWith a small geographic area but a large population, Bangladesh has had a strong political commitment to limit its growth Total fertility rates (TFRs) declined from more than 6 children per women in the early 1970s to less than 5 in the mid-1980sTotal fertility rates (TFRs) declined from more than 6 children per women in the early 1970s to less than 5 in the mid-1980s The Bangladesh TFR declined to less than 3.5 children in the early 1990s, but has changed little sinceThe Bangladesh TFR declined to less than 3.5 children in the early 1990s, but has changed little since

3. When is Bangladesh Likely to Reach Replacement-level Fertility? Are there socioeconomic subgroups in Bangladesh that already have replacement- level fertility?Are there socioeconomic subgroups in Bangladesh that already have replacement- level fertility? How does couples’ “wanted fertility” compare to the number of children that they are likely to have?How does couples’ “wanted fertility” compare to the number of children that they are likely to have? How does fertility in an area with better family planning services compare to that in an otherwise-similar area with standard government services?How does fertility in an area with better family planning services compare to that in an otherwise-similar area with standard government services?

4. BDHS and Matlab DSS Provide Data on Education and Fertility Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) has data on 10,544 womenBangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) has data on 10,544 women –BDHS data are representative of whole country –BDHS includes data on education as well as actual and wanted fertility Matlab Demographic Surveillance System (DSS) includes data on region typical of rural BangladeshMatlab Demographic Surveillance System (DSS) includes data on region typical of rural Bangladesh –DSS includes data on education and fertility –DSS allows comparisons of otherwise similar areas that differ in accessibility and quality of family planning services

5. Bangladeshi Women of Secondary or Higher Education Have Achieved Fertility Near Replacement Levels 0 1 2 3 4 NoneIncomplete Primary Complete Primary Secondary Education Number of births per woman (TFR) Source: BDHS 1997-2000

6. Bangladeshi Women of All Educational Levels Desire Still Lower Fertility Rates 0 1 2 3 4 5 NonePrimary incomplete Primary complete Secondary Education Total fertility rate Total wanted fertility rate Source: BDHS 1999-2000 Children per woman

7. Fertility Rates Have Declined in Both Areas But Are Lower in MCH-FP Area 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 19781980198219841986198819901992199419961998 Comparison MCH-FP Number of births per woman (TFR) Source: Matlab DSS, 1978-1999

8. Women With Higher Education and Better Family Planning Services Have Fertility Near Replacement Levels 0 1 2 3 4 NonePrimary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Education Comparison MCH-FP Number of births per woman (TFR) Source: Matlab DSS, 1995-2000

9. The Percent of Persons, Especially Women, With At Least Some Education Has Increased 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 40-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89 Year of birth Males Females Percent with at least one year of school Source: BDHS, 1999-2000

10. Secondary Education for Women Has Increased Greatly As Well 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 40-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84 Year of birth Males Females Percent with 6+ years of school Source: BDHS, 1999-2000

11. Socioeconomic Differences in Education Are Decreasing... 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 45-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79 Year of birth High Middle Low Women with at least one year of school, Matlab comparison area Source: Matlab DSS 1995-98 *defined by housing space Socioeconomic* position:

12. ... But Remain Large for Secondary Education 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 45-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79 Year of birth High Middle Low Women with at least six years of school, Matlab comparison area Source: Matlab DSS 1995-98 *defined by housing space Socioeconomic* position:

13. Education and Fertility in Bangladesh Are Strongly Related Education is increasing for Bangladeshi womenEducation is increasing for Bangladeshi women More educated women in Bangladesh desire smaller familiesMore educated women in Bangladesh desire smaller families Such women have achieved lower fertility rates by taking advantage of family planning servicesSuch women have achieved lower fertility rates by taking advantage of family planning services Increasing education levels could therefore help Bangladesh achieve replacement-level fertilityIncreasing education levels could therefore help Bangladesh achieve replacement-level fertility

14. Education and Family Planning Can Help Bangladeshi Women Achieve Replacement-Level Fertility Across Bangladesh, women of secondary education (6+ yrs. schooling) have nearly achieved replacement-level fertilityAcross Bangladesh, women of secondary education (6+ yrs. schooling) have nearly achieved replacement-level fertility In rural Bangladesh, higher educational levels (10+ years) and better family planning services are needed to reduce fertility to replacement levelIn rural Bangladesh, higher educational levels (10+ years) and better family planning services are needed to reduce fertility to replacement level Wanted fertility rates are below actual fertility rates for all women and at or below replacement level for all but uneducated womenWanted fertility rates are below actual fertility rates for all women and at or below replacement level for all but uneducated women Continued improvements in education and family planning will help Bangladesh achieve replacement-level fertilityContinued improvements in education and family planning will help Bangladesh achieve replacement-level fertility

15. If Present Trends Persist, Bangladesh May Achieve Replacement-Level Fertility by 2025 Nearly all women now entering reproductive age have at least some education; half have some secondary educationNearly all women now entering reproductive age have at least some education; half have some secondary education By 2025, nearly all women will have at least some secondary educationBy 2025, nearly all women will have at least some secondary education Diffusion of desires for small families to those of little or no education could hasten fertility transitionDiffusion of desires for small families to those of little or no education could hasten fertility transition Other social and economic changes may also hasten transitionOther social and economic changes may also hasten transition